Does money matter in inflation forecasting?.

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation

Evolution, recurrency and kernels in learning to model inflation

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. We use non-linear, artificial intelligence techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks, evolution strategies and kernel methods in our forecasting experiment. In the experiment, these three methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. There is evidence in the literature that evolutionary methods can be used to evolve kernels hence our future work should combine the evolutionary and kernel methods to get the benefits of both

Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability: The modelled output data that support the findings of this study are openly available from: Smith, G. S. & Ritchie, P. D. L. (NERC Environmental Information Data Centre: 639 doi.org/10.5285/e1c1dbcf-2f37-429b-af19-a730f98600f6, 2019).Climate change is expected to impact agricultural land use. Steadily accumulating changes in temperature and water availability can alter the relative profitability of different farming activities and promote land use changes. There is also potential for high-impact ‘climate tipping points’ where abrupt, non-linear change in climate occurs - such as the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, using data from Great Britain, we develop a methodology to analyse the impacts of a climate tipping point on land use and economic outcomes for agriculture. We show that economic/land use impacts of such a tipping point are likely to include widespread cessation of arable farming with losses of agricultural output, an order of magnitude larger than the impacts of climate change without an AMOC collapse. The agricultural effects of AMOC collapse could be ameliorated by technological adaptations such as widespread irrigation, but the amount of water required and the costs appear prohibitive in this instance.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Alan Turing Institut

Study of the decay phi--> f0(980)g --> pi+pi-g with the KLOE detector

We measured, with the KLOE detector, the spectrum of pi+pi- invariant mass in a sample of 6.7 x 10^5 e+e- --> pi+pi-g events with the photon at large polar angle (theta_g>45^o) at a centre of mass energy sqrt(s) around the phi mass. We observe a clear contribution from the intermediate process phi --> f0(980)g. A sizeable effect is also observed in the distribution of the forward-backeard asymmetry. We use different theoretical models to fit the spectrum and we determine the f_0 mass and coupling constants to the phi, to pi+pi- and to KK.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, submitted to Phys.Lett.

Modern microwave methods in solid state inorganic materials chemistry: from fundamentals to manufacturing

No abstract available

Measuring the hadronic cross section via radiative return

Recently it has been demonstrated that particle factories, such as DAPHNE and PEP-II, operating at fixed center-of-mass energies, are able to measure hadronic cross sections as a function of the hadronic system energy using the raditive return. This paper is an experimental overview of the progress in this aera. Preliminary results from KLOE for the process e+e- -> \rho \gamma -> \pi+\pi-\gamma and a fit to the pion form factor are presented. Some first results from the BABAR collaboration are also shown.Comment: Invited talk presented at RADCOR/Loops and Legs 2002, Kloster Banz/Germany, September 8-13 2002, 6 pages, 2 Figures; v1: references added, typos correcte

Charged-Lepton Flavour Physics

This writeup of a talk at the 2011 Lepton-Photon symposium in Mumbai, India, summarises recent results in the charged-lepton flavour sector. I review searches for charged-lepton flavour violation, lepton electric dipole moments and flavour-conserving CP violation. I also discuss recent progress in tau-lepton physics and in the Standard Model prediction of the muon anomalous magnetic moment.Comment: Presented at Lepton-Photon 2011, Mumbai, India; 23 pages, 14 figure

Measurement of sigma(e+ e- -> pi+ pi-) from threshold to 0.85 GeV^2 using Initial State Radiation with the KLOE detector

We have measured the cross section of the radiative process e+e- -> pi+pi-gamma with the KLOE detector at the Frascati phi-factory DAPHNE, from events taken at a CM energy W=1 GeV. Initial state radiation allows us to obtain the cross section for e+e- -> pi+pi-, the pion form factor |F_pi|^2 and the dipion contribution to the muon magnetic moment anomaly, Delta a_mu^{pipi} = (478.5+-2.0_{stat}+-5.0_{syst}+-4.5_{th}) x 10^{-10} in the range 0.1 < M_{pipi}^2 < 0.85 GeV^2, where the theoretical error includes a SU(3) ChPT estimate of the uncertainty on photon radiation from the final pions. The discrepancy between the Standard Model evaluation of a_mu and the value measured by the Muon g-2 collaboration at BNL is confirmed.Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures, revised treatment of FSR uncertainty, version to appear on Physics Letters