Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of lower respiratory infections among children younger than 5 years : an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Despite large reductions in under-5 lower respiratory infection (LRI) mortality in many locations, the pace of progress for LRIs has generally lagged behind that of other childhood infectious diseases. To better inform programmes and policies focused on preventing and treating LRIs, we assessed the contributions and patterns of risk factor attribution, intervention coverage, and sociodemographic development in 195 countries and territories by drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) LRI estimates. Methods We used four strategies to model LRI burden: the mortality due to LRIs was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive ensemble modelling tool; the incidence of LRIs was modelled using population representative surveys, health-care utilisation data, and scientific literature in a compartmental meta-regression tool; the attribution of risk factors for LRI mortality was modelled in a counterfactual framework; and trends in LRI mortality were analysed applying changes in exposure to risk factors over time. In GBD, infectious disease mortality, including that due to LRI, is among HIV-negative individuals. We categorised locations based on their burden in 1990 to make comparisons in the changing burden between 1990 and 2017 and evaluate the relative percent change in mortality rate, incidence, and risk factor exposure to explain differences in the health loss associated with LRIs among children younger than 5 years. Findings In 2017, LRIs caused 808 920 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 747 286-873 591) in children younger than 5 years. Since 1990, there has been a substantial decrease in the number of deaths (from 2 337 538 to 808 920 deaths; 65.4% decrease, 61.5-68.5) and in mortality rate (from 362.7 deaths [3304-392.0] per 100 000 children to 118.9 deaths [109.8-128.3] per 100 000 children; 67.2% decrease, 63.5-70.1). LRI incidence dedined globally (32.4% decrease, 27.2-37.5). The percent change in under-5 mortality rate and incidence has varied across locations. Among the risk factors assessed in this study, those responsible for the greatest decrease in under-5 LRI mortality between 1990 and 2017 were increased coverage of vaccination against Haemophilus influenza type b (11.4% decrease, 0.0-24.5), increased pneumococcal vaccine coverage (6.3% decrease, 6.1-6.3), and reductions in household air pollution (8.4%, 6 8-9.2). Interpretation Our findings show that there have been substantial but uneven declines in LRI mortality among countries between 1990 and 2017. Although improvements in indicators of sociodemographic development could explain some of these trends, changes in exposure to modifiable risk factors are related to the rates of decline in LRI mortality. No single intervention would universally accelerate reductions in health loss associated with LRIs in all settings, but emphasising the most dominant risk factors, particularly in countries with high case fatality, can contribute to the reduction of preventable deaths

The Relationship between Homicide and Suicide: A narrative and conceptual review of violent death

In this paper, we provide a narrative review of the theoretical discourse and empiric research on the relationship between homicide and suicide.Understanding of homicide and suicide has evolved from religious condemnation during the Middle Ages, to medicalization in the 1800s, and socialization in the 1900s. There is a long historical tradition of treating homicide and suicide as a single phenomenon. Contemporary thought, the stream analogy, posits that homicide and suicide are acts of violence, differentiated only by the direction of aggression. Empiric research has provided modest evidence supporting the stream analogy theory. A more comprehensive framework that incorporates cultural domains is needed to advance the research field on homicide and suicide

The Relationship between Homicide and Suicide: A narrative and conceptual review of violent death

In this paper, we provide a narrative review of the theoretical discourse and empiric research on the relationship between homicide and suicide.Understanding of homicide and suicide has evolved from religious condemnation during the Middle Ages, to medicalization in the 1800s, and socialization in the 1900s. There is a long historical tradition of treating homicide and suicide as a single phenomenon. Contemporary thought, the stream analogy, posits that homicide and suicide are acts of violence, differentiated only by the direction of aggression. Empiric research has provided modest evidence supporting the stream analogy theory. A more comprehensive framework that incorporates cultural domains is needed to advance the research field on homicide and suicide

Odds of return: a prospective study using provider assessment to predict short-term patient return visits to the emergency department

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies have assessed patient-level characteristics associated with emergency department (ED) return visits, but none have used provider assessment. We prospectively investigate whether clinical providers could accurately predict ED return visits. METHODS: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Single academically affiliated urban county hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Discharged ED patients over a 14-month period with a provider assessment of the likelihood of patient return within 7 days of ED discharge. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome of interest was a return visit to the ED within 7 days. Additional outcome measures included a return visit within 72 hours and a return visit resulting in admission. We also measured the accuracy of provider gestalt, and provide measures of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios. RESULTS: Of the 11 922 ED discharges included in this study, providers expected 2116 (17.7%) to result in a return visit within 7 days. Providers were much more likely to perceive a return visit if the patient left against medical advice (OR: 5.97, 95% CI: 4.67 to 7.62), or was homeless (OR: 5.69, 95% CI: 5.14 to 6.29). Patients who actually returned were also more likely to be homeless, English speaking and to have left the ED against medical advice on the initial encounter. The strongest predictor of a return visit at both 72 hours and 7 days in multivariable modelling was provider assessment (OR: 3.77, 95% CI: 3.25 to 4.37; OR: 3.72, 95% CI: 3.29 to 4.21, respectively). Overall sensitivity and specificity of provider gestalt as a measure of patient return within 7 days were 47% and 87%, respectively. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 3.51 and 0.61, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Clinician assessment was the strongest predictor of a return visit in this dataset. Clinician assessment may be used as a way to screen patients during the index visit and enrol them in efforts to decrease return visits

Clinical emergency care quality indicators in Africa: a scoping review and data summary

Objectives Emergency care services are rapidly expanding in Africa; however, development must focus on quality. The African Federation of Emergency Medicine consensus conference (AFEM-CC)-based quality indicators were published in 2018. This study sought to increase knowledge of quality through identifying all publications from Africa containing data relevant to the AFEM-CC process clinical and outcome quality indicators.Design We conducted searches for general quality of emergency care in Africa and for each of 28 AFEM-CC process clinical and five outcome clinical quality indicators individually in the medical and grey literature.Data sources PubMed (1964—2 January 2022), Embase (1947—2 January 2022) and CINAHL (1982—3 January 2022) and various forms of grey literature were queried.Eligibility criteria Studies published in English, addressing the African emergency care population as a whole or large subsegment of this population (eg, trauma, paediatrics), and matching AFEM-CC process quality indicator parameters exactly were included. Studies with similar, but not exact match, data were collected separately as ‘AFEM-CC quality indicators near match’.Data extraction and synthesis Document screening was done in duplicate by two authors, using Covidence, and conflicts were adjudicated by a third. Simple descriptive statistics were calculated.Results One thousand three hundred and fourteen documents were reviewed, 314 in full text. 41 studies met a priori criteria and were included, yielding 59 unique quality indicator data points. Documentation and assessment quality indicators accounted for 64% of data points identified, clinical care for 25% and outcomes for 10%. An additional 53 ‘AFEM-CC quality indicators near match’ publications were identified (38 new publications and 15 previously identified studies that contained additional ‘near match’ data), yielding 87 data points.Conclusions Data relevant to African emergency care facility-based quality indicators are highly limited. Future publications on emergency care in Africa should be aware of, and conform with, AFEM-CC quality indicators to strengthen understanding of quality

Defining measures of emergency care access in low-income and middle-income countries: a scoping review

Background Over 50% of annual deaths in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) could be averted through access to high-quality emergency care.Objectives We performed a scoping review of the literature that described at least one measure of emergency care access in LMICs in order to understand relevant barriers to emergency care systems.Eligibility criteria English language studies published between 1 January 1990 and 30 December 2020, with one or more discrete measure(s) of access to emergency health services in LMICs described.Source of evidence PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, CINAHL and the grey literature.Charting methods A structured data extraction tool was used to identify and classify the number of ‘unique’ measures, and the number of times each unique measure was studied in the literature (‘total’ measures). Measures of access were categorised by access type, defined by Thomas and Penchansky, with further categorisation according to the ‘Three Delay’ model of seeking, reaching and receiving care, and the WHO’s Emergency Care Systems Framework (ECSF).Results A total of 3103 articles were screened. 75 met full study inclusion. Articles were uniformly descriptive (n=75, 100%). 137 discrete measures of access were reported. Unique measures of accommodation (n=42, 30.7%) and availability (n=40, 29.2%) were most common. Measures of seeking, reaching and receiving care were 22 (16.0%), 46 (33.6%) and 69 (50.4%), respectively. According to the ECSF slightly more measures focused on prehospital care—inclusive of care at the scene and through transport to a facility (n=76, 55.4%) as compared with facility-based care (n=57, 41.6%).Conclusions Numerous measures of emergency care access are described in the literature, but many measures are overaddressed. Development of a core set of access measures with associated minimum standards are necessary to aid in ensuring universal access to high-quality emergency care in all settings

Data from: Reducing early infant mortality in India: results of a prospective cohort of pregnant women utilizing emergency medical services

Objectives: To describe the demographic characteristics and clinical outcomes of neonates born within 7 days of public ambulance transport to hospitals across five states in India. Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: Five Indian states using a centralised EMS agency that transported 3.1 million pregnant women in 2014. Participants: Over 6 weeks in 2014, this study followed a convenience sample of 1,431 neonates born to women utilizing a public-private ambulance service for a ‘pregnancy related’ problem. Initial calls were deemed ‘pregnancy related’ if categorised by EMS dispatchers as ‘pregnancy’, ‘childbirth’, ‘miscarriage’ or ‘labour pains’. Interfacility transfers, patients absent on ambulance arrival, refusal of care, and neonates born to women beyond 7 days of using the service were excluded. Main outcome measures: Death at 2, 7 and 42 days after delivery. Results: Among 1,684 women, 1,411 gave birth to 1,431 newborns within 7 days of initial ambulance transport. Median maternal age at delivery was 23 years (IQR: 21-25). Most mothers were from rural/tribal areas (92.5%) and lower social (79.9%) and economic status (69.9%). Follow-up rates at 2, 7 and 42 days were 99.8%, 99.3% and 94.1%, respectively. Cumulative mortality rates at 2, 7 and 42-days follow-up were 41, 53 and 62 per 1000 births, respectively. The perinatal mortality rate (PMR) was 53 per 1000. Preterm birth [OR: 2.89, 95% CI: 1.67-5.00], twin deliveries (OR: 2.80, 95% CI: 1.10-7.15), and cesarean section (2.21, 95% CI: 1.15-4.23) were the strongest predictors of mortality. Conclusions: The perinatal mortality rate associated with this cohort of patients with high-acuity conditions of pregnancy was nearly two times the most recent rate for India as a whole (28 per 1000 births). EMS data has the potential to provide more robust estimates of PMR, reduce inequities in timely access to healthcare, and increase facility-based care through service of marginalized populations