Finding the Important Factors in Large Discrete-Event Simulation: Sequential Bifurcation and its Applications

This contribution discusses experiments with many factors: the case study includes a simulation model with 92 factors.The experiments are guided by sequential bifurcation.This method is most efficient and effective if the true input/output behavior of the simulation model can be approximated through a first-order polynomial possibly augmented with two-factor interactions.The method is explained and illustrated through three related discrete-event simulation models.These models represent three supply chain configurations, studied for an Ericsson factory in Sweden.After simulating 21 scenarios (factor combinations) each replicated five times to account for noise a shortlist with the 11 most important factors is identified for the biggest of the three simulation models.simulation;bifurcation;supply;Sweden

Maximizing the Performance of Automated Low Cost All-sky Cameras

Thanks to the wide spread of digital camera technology in the consumer market, a steady increase in the number of active All-sky camera has be noticed European wide. In this paper I look into the details of such All-sky systems and try to optimize the performance in terms of accuracy of the astrometry, the velocity determination and photometry. Having autonomous operation in mind, suggestions are done for the optimal low cost All-sky camera

The European Solar Telescope

Instrumentatio

Aperture Increase Options for the Dutch Open Telescope

This paper is an invitation to the international community to participate in the usage and a substantial upgrade of the Dutch Open Telescope on La Palma (DOT, \url{http://dot.astro.uu.nl}). We first give a brief overview of the approach, design, and current science capabilities of the DOT. The DOT database (\url{http://dotdb.phys.uu.nl/DOT}) now contains many tomographic image sequences with 0.2-0.3 arcsec resolution and up to multi-hour duration. You are welcome to pull them over for analysis. The main part of this contribution outlines DOT upgrade designs implementing larger aperture. The motivation for aperture increase is the recognition that optical solar physics needs the substantially larger telescope apertures that became useful with the advent of adaptive optics and viable through the DOT's open principle, both for photospheric polarimetry at high resolution and high sensitivity and for chromospheric fine-structure diagnosis at high cadence and full spectral sampling. Realization of an upgrade requires external partnership(s). This report about DOT upgrade options therefore serves also as initial documentation for potential partners.Comment: in press,"Physics of Chromospheric Plasmas" (Coimbra), ASP 368, 573 (2007

Design of Experiments for Screening

The aim of this paper is to review methods of designing screening experiments, ranging from designs originally developed for physical experiments to those especially tailored to experiments on numerical models. The strengths and weaknesses of the various designs for screening variables in numerical models are discussed. First, classes of factorial designs for experiments to estimate main effects and interactions through a linear statistical model are described, specifically regular and nonregular fractional factorial designs, supersaturated designs and systematic fractional replicate designs. Generic issues of aliasing, bias and cancellation of factorial effects are discussed. Second, group screening experiments are considered including factorial group screening and sequential bifurcation. Third, random sampling plans are discussed including Latin hypercube sampling and sampling plans to estimate elementary effects. Fourth, a variety of modelling methods commonly employed with screening designs are briefly described. Finally, a novel study demonstrates six screening methods on two frequently-used exemplars, and their performances are compared

An overview of the mid-infrared spectro-interferometer MATISSE: science, concept, and current status

MATISSE is the second-generation mid-infrared spectrograph and imager for the Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI) at Paranal. This new interferometric instrument will allow significant advances by opening new avenues in various fundamental research fields: studying the planet-forming region of disks around young stellar objects, understanding the surface structures and mass loss phenomena affecting evolved stars, and probing the environments of black holes in active galactic nuclei. As a first breakthrough, MATISSE will enlarge the spectral domain of current optical interferometers by offering the L and M bands in addition to the N band. This will open a wide wavelength domain, ranging from 2.8 to 13 um, exploring angular scales as small as 3 mas (L band) / 10 mas (N band). As a second breakthrough, MATISSE will allow mid-infrared imaging - closure-phase aperture-synthesis imaging - with up to four Unit Telescopes (UT) or Auxiliary Telescopes (AT) of the VLTI. Moreover, MATISSE will offer a spectral resolution range from R ~ 30 to R ~ 5000. Here, we present one of the main science objectives, the study of protoplanetary disks, that has driven the instrument design and motivated several VLTI upgrades (GRA4MAT and NAOMI). We introduce the physical concept of MATISSE including a description of the signal on the detectors and an evaluation of the expected performances. We also discuss the current status of the MATISSE instrument, which is entering its testing phase, and the foreseen schedule for the next two years that will lead to the first light at Paranal.Comment: SPIE Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation conference, June 2016, 11 pages, 6 Figure

Ethical Issues in Engineering Models: An Operations Researcher’s Reflections

This article starts with an overview of the author’s personal involvement—as an Operations Research consultant—in several engineering case-studies that may raise ethical questions; e.g., case-studies on nuclear waste, water management, sustainable ecology, military tactics, and animal welfare. All these case studies employ computer simulation models. In general, models are meant to solve practical problems, which may have ethical implications for the various stakeholders; namely, the modelers, the clients, and the public at large. The article further presents an overview of codes of ethics in a variety of disciples. It discusses the role of mathematical models, focusing on the validation of these models’ assumptions. Documentation of these model assumptions needs special attention. Some ethical norms and values may be quantified through the model’s multiple performance measures, which might be optimized. The uncertainty about the validity of the model leads to risk or uncertainty analysis and to a search for robust models. Ethical questions may be pressing in military models, including war games. However, computer games and the related experimental economics may also provide a special tool to study ethical issues. Finally, the article briefly discusses whistleblowing. Its many references to publications and websites enable further study of ethical issues in modeling

Status of the mid-IR ELT imager and spectrograph (METIS)

The Mid-Infrared ELT Imager and Spectrograph (METIS) is one of three first light instruments on the ELT. It will provide high-contrast imaging and medium resolution, slit-spectroscopy from 3 - 19um, as well as high resolution (R ∼ 100,000) integral field spectroscopy from 2.9-5.3μm. All modes observe at the diffraction limit of the ELT, by means of adaptive optics, yielding angular resolutions of a few tens of milliarcseconds. The range of METIS science is broad, from Solar System objects to active galactic nuclei (AGN). We will present an update on the main science drivers for METIS: circum-stellar disks and exoplanets. The METIS project is now in full steam, approaching its preliminary design review (PDR) in 2018. In this paper we will present the current status of its optical, mechanical and thermal design as well as operational aspects. We will also discuss the challenges of building an instrument for the ELT, and the required technologies. © 2018 SPIE