Thermotectonic evolution of an extensional dome: the Cenozoic Osogovo-Lisets core complex (Kraishte zone, western Bulgaria)

The Kraishte region of Bulgaria is located at the junction of the Balkanides and Hellenides-Dinarides tectonic belts. Fission-track analysis on both apatites and zircons documents the Cenozoic exhumation of a Precambrian basement bounded by low-angle detachments. Late Eocene-Oligocene extension began prior to 47Ma and was dominantly in a top-to-the-southwest direction, confirmed by the sense of younging of apatite and zircon ages. This crustal extension controlled the formation of half-graben sedimentary basins on the hanging walls of the detachments. Thermal modelling of these hanging wall units provides evidence for heat transfer across the detachments from a relatively warm rising footwall. From 32 to 29Ma, pervasive magmatic activity resulted in the emplacement of rhyolitic to dacitic subvolcanic bodies and dykes, along with intrusion of the Osogovo granite. The results give evidence for extension in the southern Balkan older than, and separated from, the Miocene to Quaternary Aegean extension. This might reflect transtension during northeastward extrusion and rotation of continental fragments around the western boundary of Moesia. Eocene-Oligocene extension seems to have been controlled by the distribution of earlier thickening all around the Carpatho-Balkanic orocline, which is reflected by the Cretaceous emplacement of the Morava Nappe in the Kraisht

Utility, subjective probability, their interaction, and variance preferences

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/66507/2/10.1177_002200276200600106.pd

Hamilton's principle: why is the integrated difference of kinetic and potential energy minimized?

I present an intuitive answer to an often asked question: why is the integrated difference K-U between the kinetic and potential energy the quantity to be minimized in Hamilton's principle? Using elementary arguments, I map the problem of finding the path of a moving particle connecting two points to that of finding the minimum potential energy of a static string. The mapping implies that the configuration of a non--stretchable string of variable tension corresponds to the spatial path dictated by the Principle of Least Action; that of a stretchable string in space-time is the one dictated by Hamilton's principle. This correspondence provides the answer to the question above: while a downward force curves the trajectory of a particle in the (x,t) plane downward, an upward force of the same magnitude stretches the string to the same configuration x(t).Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures. Submitted to the American Journal of Physic

Active Mass Under Pressure

After a historical introduction to Poisson's equation for Newtonian gravity, its analog for static gravitational fields in Einstein's theory is reviewed. It appears that the pressure contribution to the active mass density in Einstein's theory might also be noticeable at the Newtonian level. A form of its surprising appearance, first noticed by Richard Chase Tolman, was discussed half a century ago in the Hamburg Relativity Seminar and is resolved here.Comment: 28 pages, 4 figure

A nonparametric urn-based approach to interacting failing systems with an application to credit risk modeling

In this paper we propose a new nonparametric approach to interacting failing systems (FS), that is systems whose probability of failure is not negligible in a fixed time horizon, a typical example being firms and financial bonds. The main purpose when studying a FS is to calculate the probability of default and the distribution of the number of failures that may occur during the observation period. A model used to study a failing system is defined default model. In particular, we present a general recursive model constructed by the means of inter- acting urns. After introducing the theoretical model and its properties we show a first application to credit risk modeling, showing how to assess the idiosyncratic probability of default of an obligor and the joint probability of failure of a set of obligors in a portfolio of risks, that are divided into reliability classes

A Cretaceous carbonate delta drift in the Montagna della Maiella, Italy

The Upper Cretaceous (Campanian\u2013Maastrichtian) bioclastic wedge of the Orfento Formation in the Montagna della Maiella, Italy, is compared to newly discovered contourite drifts in the Maldives. Like the drift deposits in the Maldives, the Orfento Formation fills a channel and builds a Miocene delta-shaped and mounded sedimentary body in the basin that is similar in size to the approximately 350 km 2 large coarse-grained bioclastic Miocene delta drifts in the Maldives. The composition of the bioclastic wedge of the Orfento Formation is also exclusively bioclastic debris sourced from the shallow-water areas and reworked clasts of the Orfento Formation itself. In the near mud-free succession, age-diagnostic fossils are sparse. The depositional textures vary from wackestone to float-rudstone and breccia/conglomerates, but rocks with grainstone and rudstone textures are the most common facies. In the channel, lensoid convex-upward breccias, cross-cutting channelized beds and thick grainstone lobes with abundant scours indicate alternating erosion and deposition from a high-energy current. In the basin, the mounded sedimentary body contains lobes with a divergent progradational geometry. The lobes are built by decametre thick composite megabeds consisting of sigmoidal clinoforms that typically have a channelized topset, a grainy foreset and a fine-grained bottomset with abundant irregular angular clasts. Up to 30 m thick channels filled with intraformational breccias and coarse grainstones pinch out downslope between the megabeds. In the distal portion of the wedge, stacked grainstone beds with foresets and reworked intraclasts document continuous sediment reworking and migration. The bioclastic wedge of the Orfento Formation has been variously interpreted as a succession of sea-level controlled slope deposits, a shoaling shoreface complex, or a carbonate tidal delta. Current-controlled delta drifts in the Maldives, however, offer a new interpretation because of their similarity in architecture and composition. These similarities include: (i) a feeder channel opening into the basin; (ii) an excavation moat at the exit of the channel; (iii) an overall mounded geometry with an apex that is in shallower water depth than the source channel; (iv) progradation of stacked lobes; (v) channels that pinch out in a basinward direction; and (vi) smaller channelized intervals that are arranged in a radial pattern. As a result, the Upper Cretaceous (Campanian\u2013Maastrichtian) bioclastic wedge of the Orfento Formation in the Montagna della Maiella, Italy, is here interpreted as a carbonate delta drift

Self-Control in Cyberspace: Applying Dual Systems Theory to a Review of Digital Self-Control Tools

Many people struggle to control their use of digital devices. However, our understanding of the design mechanisms that support user self-control remains limited. In this paper, we make two contributions to HCI research in this space: first, we analyse 367 apps and browser extensions from the Google Play, Chrome Web, and Apple App stores to identify common core design features and intervention strategies afforded by current tools for digital self-control. Second, we adapt and apply an integrative dual systems model of self-regulation as a framework for organising and evaluating the design features found. Our analysis aims to help the design of better tools in two ways: (i) by identifying how, through a well-established model of self-regulation, current tools overlap and differ in how they support self-control; and (ii) by using the model to reveal underexplored cognitive mechanisms that could aid the design of new tools.Comment: 11.5 pages (excl. references), 6 figures, 1 tabl

Optimal leverage from non-ergodicity

In modern portfolio theory, the balancing of expected returns on investments against uncertainties in those returns is aided by the use of utility functions. The Kelly criterion offers another approach, rooted in information theory, that always implies logarithmic utility. The two approaches seem incompatible, too loosely or too tightly constraining investors' risk preferences, from their respective perspectives. The conflict can be understood on the basis that the multiplicative models used in both approaches are non-ergodic which leads to ensemble-average returns differing from time-average returns in single realizations. The classic treatments, from the very beginning of probability theory, use ensemble-averages, whereas the Kelly-result is obtained by considering time-averages. Maximizing the time-average growth rates for an investment defines an optimal leverage, whereas growth rates derived from ensemble-average returns depend linearly on leverage. The latter measure can thus incentivize investors to maximize leverage, which is detrimental to time-average growth and overall market stability. The Sharpe ratio is insensitive to leverage. Its relation to optimal leverage is discussed. A better understanding of the significance of time-irreversibility and non-ergodicity and the resulting bounds on leverage may help policy makers in reshaping financial risk controls.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures. Updated figures and extended discussion of ergodicit

How brains make decisions

This chapter, dedicated to the memory of Mino Freund, summarizes the Quantum Decision Theory (QDT) that we have developed in a series of publications since 2008. We formulate a general mathematical scheme of how decisions are taken, using the point of view of psychological and cognitive sciences, without touching physiological aspects. The basic principles of how intelligence acts are discussed. The human brain processes involved in decisions are argued to be principally different from straightforward computer operations. The difference lies in the conscious-subconscious duality of the decision making process and the role of emotions that compete with utility optimization. The most general approach for characterizing the process of decision making, taking into account the conscious-subconscious duality, uses the framework of functional analysis in Hilbert spaces, similarly to that used in the quantum theory of measurements. This does not imply that the brain is a quantum system, but just allows for the simplest and most general extension of classical decision theory. The resulting theory of quantum decision making, based on the rules of quantum measurements, solves all paradoxes of classical decision making, allowing for quantitative predictions that are in excellent agreement with experiments. Finally, we provide a novel application by comparing the predictions of QDT with experiments on the prisoner dilemma game. The developed theory can serve as a guide for creating artificial intelligence acting by quantum rules.Comment: Latex file, 20 pages, 3 figure

New insights on structure and stratigraphic interpretation for assessing the hydrocarbon potentiality of the offshore Nile Delta basin, Egypt

The study area lies around the petroleum provinces of the Egyptian Offshore Nile Delta basin. The existing exploration data are sparse, and any effort made on the strati-structural interpretation is challenging for exploratory drilling campaigns, even with meager well control. Keeping in view the issues and major challenges, the authors propose new methodologies, tools and new insights into the interpretation of the existing data and information, to make the study area more attractive for investors and detailed exploration studies. The published geological work existing within the vicinity of the study area is an added value to the new insights of current interpretation and knowledge acquisition. Pliocene–Pleistocene section is the main target in the study area, since it has quality reservoirs, holding commercial hydrocarbons. Pre-salt source rocks may have charged the reservoirs in the study area. Structural complexities and heterogeneities at target levels are likely to impact the seismic wavelet property intricacies and thus the data processing qualities. Post- and pre-salt tectonics in the northern part of Sinai, the Nile Cone, and how they affect the structural framework and the seismic interpretation work in the study area are described. For the purpose of understanding the combinational trapping mechanism, stratigraphic features and the structural geology are integrated using new tools and technologies. Several strati-structural plays are interpreted in the study area that support the detailed exploration campaigns, and the existing major hydrocarbon plays associated within shelf, slope and deep-marine geological events in nearby offshore regions. Diapir salt, rotated fault blocks and growth faults within syn-sediment systems are other plays to be investigated. The study is an effort of compiled work from many published sources, putting all ideas into a positive perspective and has better understanding of new opportunities, leads and prospects for investment purposes in the Nile Delta offshore basin