The model of mortality with incident cirrhosis (MoMIC) and the model of long-term outlook of mortality in dcirrhosis (LOMiC)

The purpose of this study was to produce two statistical survival models in those with cirrhosis utilising only routine parameters, including non-liver-related clinical factors that influence survival. The first model identified and utilised factors impacting short-term survival to 90-days post incident diagnosis, and a further model characterised factors that impacted survival following this acute phase. Data were from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with Hospital Episode Statistics. Incident cases in patients ≥18 years were identified between 1998 and 2014. Patients that had prior history of cancer or had received liver transplants prior were excluded. Model-1 used a logistic regression model to predict mortality. Model-2 used data from those patients who survived 90 days, and used an extension of the Cox regression model, adjusting for time-dependent covariables. At 90 days, 23% of patients had died. Overall median survival was 3.7 years. Model-1: numerous predictors, prior comorbidities and decompensating events were incorporated. All comorbidities contributed to increased odds of death, with renal disease having the largest adjusted odds ratio (OR = 3.35, 95%CI 2.97–3.77). Model-2: covariables included cumulative admissions for liver disease-related events and admissions for infections. Significant covariates were renal disease (adjusted hazard ratio (HR = 2.89, 2.47–3.38)), elevated bilirubin levels (aHR = 1.38, 1.26–1.51) and low sodium levels (aHR = 2.26, 1.84–2.78). An internal validation demonstrated reliability of both models. In conclusion: two survival models that included parameters commonly recorded in routine clinical practice were generated that reliably forecast the risk of death in patients with cirrhosis: in the acute, post diagnosis phase, and following this critical, 90 day phase. This has implications for practice and helps better forecast the risk of mortality from cirrhosis using routinely recorded parameters without inputs from specialists

Women with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome have an increased risk of major cardiovascular events: a population study

Context The effects of Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS) on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality are unclear. Objective To establish the relative risk of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, angina, revascularization and cardiovascular mortality for women with PCOS. Design Data were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database. Patients with PCOS were matched to controls (1:1) by age, body mass index (BMI) category and primary care practice. The primary outcome was the time to major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE); a composite endpoint incorporating MI, stroke, angina, revascularization and cardiovascular mortality. Secondary outcomes were the individual MACE endpoints. Results Of 219,034 with a diagnosis of PCOS, 174,660 (79.7%) met the eligibility criteria and were matched. Crude rates of the composite endpoint, MI, stroke, angina, revascularization and cardiovascular mortality were respectively 82.7, 22.7, 27.4, 32.8, 10.5 and 6.97 per 100,000 patient-years for cases, and 64.3, 15.9, 25.7, 19.8, 7.13 and 7.75 per 100,000 patient-years for controls. In adjusted cox proportional hazard models (CPHM), the hazard ratios [HR] were 1.26 (95% confidence interval=1.13-1.41), 1.38 (1.11-1.72), 1.60 (1.32-1.94) and 1.50 (1.08-2.07) for the composite outcome, MI, angina and revascularization, respectively. In a time-dependent CPHM, weight gain (HR 1.01 [1.00-1.01]), prior type 2 diabetes (T2DM) (HR 2.40 [1.76-3.30]) and social deprivation (HR 1.53 [1.11-2.11]) increased risk of progression to the composite endpoint. Conclusions The risk of incident MI, angina and revascularization is increased in young women with PCOS. Weight and T2DM are potentially modifiable risk factors amenable to intervention

Retroperitoneal liposarcoma associated with small plaque parapsoriasis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Extremely rare cases of paraneoplastic syndromes or ectopic production of proteins associated with liposarcoma are reported in literature. Production of Granulocyte-Colony Stimulating Factor, alpha-fetoprotein, paraneoplastic pemphigus and leucocytosis, Acrokeratosis paraneoplastica (Bazex's syndrome) are reported.</p> <p>The present report describes a case of retroperitoneal liposarcoma associated with small plaque parapsoriasis. Our search in the English literature of such a kind of association did not reveal any case reported.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>A 74 year male patient was admitted to our hospital because of the presence of an abdominal mass in right iliac fossa. He also complained of a two-year history of psoriasiform eruptions. The CT scan showed a retroperitoneal pelvic mass. Therefore surgical resection of the tumor was performed. After surgery, the skin eruptions disappeared completely in seven days and so a diagnosis of parapsoriasis syndrome was done.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Parallel disappearing of skin eruptions after surgery, typical clinical picture and not specific histology of the cutaneous lesions suggest the diagnosis of small plaque parapsoriasis. Therefore we propose to add Small Plaque Parapsoriasis to the list of paraneoplastic syndromes associated to liposarcoma.</p

Real-world evidence from the first online healthcare analytics platform—Livingstone. Validation of its descriptive epidemiology module

Incidence and prevalence are key epidemiological determinants characterizing the quantum of a disease. We compared incidence and prevalence estimates derived automatically from the first ever online, essentially real-time, healthcare analytics platform—Livingstone—against findings from comparable peer-reviewed studies in order to validate the descriptive epidemiology module. The source of routine NHS data for Livingstone was the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). After applying a general search strategy looking for any disease or condition, 76 relevant studies were first retrieved, of which 10 met pre-specified inclusion and exclusion criteria. Findings reported in these studies were compared with estimates produced automatically by Livingstone. The published reports described elements of the epidemiology of 14 diseases or conditions. Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) was used to evaluate the concordance between findings from Livingstone and those detailed in the published studies. The concordance of incidence values in the final year reported by each study versus Livingstone was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.89–0.98), whilst for all annual incidence values the concordance was 0.93 (0.91–0.94). For prevalence, concordance for the final annual prevalence reported in each study versus Livingstone was 1.00 (0.99–1.00) and for all reported annual prevalence values, the concordance was 0.93 (0.90–0.95). The concordance between Livingstone and the latest published findings was near perfect for prevalence and substantial for incidence. For the first time, it is now possible to automatically generate reliable descriptive epidemiology from routine health records, and in near-real time. Livingstone provides the first mechanism to rapidly generate standardised, descriptive epidemiology for all clinical events from real world data

The Wide-field Spectroscopic Telescope (WST) Science White Paper

The Wide-field Spectroscopic Telescope (WST) is proposed as a new facility dedicated to the efficient delivery of spectroscopic surveys. This white paper summarises the initial concept as well as the corresponding science cases. WST will feature simultaneous operation of a large field-of-view (3 sq. degree), a high multiplex (20,000) multi-object spectrograph (MOS) and a giant 3x3 sq. arcmin integral field spectrograph (IFS). In scientific capability these requirements place WST far ahead of existing and planned facilities. Given the current investment in deep imaging surveys and noting the diagnostic power of spectroscopy, WST will fill a crucial gap in astronomical capability and work synergistically with future ground and space-based facilities. This white paper shows that WST can address outstanding scientific questions in the areas of cosmology; galaxy assembly, evolution, and enrichment, including our own Milky Way; origin of stars and planets; time domain and multi-messenger astrophysics. WST's uniquely rich dataset will deliver unforeseen discoveries in many of these areas. The WST Science Team (already including more than 500 scientists worldwide) is open to the all astronomical community. To register in the WST Science Team please visit https://www.wstelescope.com/for-scientists/participat

Effect of remote ischaemic conditioning on clinical outcomes in patients with acute myocardial infarction (CONDI-2/ERIC-PPCI): a single-blind randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Remote ischaemic conditioning with transient ischaemia and reperfusion applied to the arm has been shown to reduce myocardial infarct size in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). We investigated whether remote ischaemic conditioning could reduce the incidence of cardiac death and hospitalisation for heart failure at 12 months. METHODS: We did an international investigator-initiated, prospective, single-blind, randomised controlled trial (CONDI-2/ERIC-PPCI) at 33 centres across the UK, Denmark, Spain, and Serbia. Patients (age >18 years) with suspected STEMI and who were eligible for PPCI were randomly allocated (1:1, stratified by centre with a permuted block method) to receive standard treatment (including a sham simulated remote ischaemic conditioning intervention at UK sites only) or remote ischaemic conditioning treatment (intermittent ischaemia and reperfusion applied to the arm through four cycles of 5-min inflation and 5-min deflation of an automated cuff device) before PPCI. Investigators responsible for data collection and outcome assessment were masked to treatment allocation. The primary combined endpoint was cardiac death or hospitalisation for heart failure at 12 months in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02342522) and is completed. FINDINGS: Between Nov 6, 2013, and March 31, 2018, 5401 patients were randomly allocated to either the control group (n=2701) or the remote ischaemic conditioning group (n=2700). After exclusion of patients upon hospital arrival or loss to follow-up, 2569 patients in the control group and 2546 in the intervention group were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. At 12 months post-PPCI, the Kaplan-Meier-estimated frequencies of cardiac death or hospitalisation for heart failure (the primary endpoint) were 220 (8·6%) patients in the control group and 239 (9·4%) in the remote ischaemic conditioning group (hazard ratio 1·10 [95% CI 0·91-1·32], p=0·32 for intervention versus control). No important unexpected adverse events or side effects of remote ischaemic conditioning were observed. INTERPRETATION: Remote ischaemic conditioning does not improve clinical outcomes (cardiac death or hospitalisation for heart failure) at 12 months in patients with STEMI undergoing PPCI. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, University College London Hospitals/University College London Biomedical Research Centre, Danish Innovation Foundation, Novo Nordisk Foundation, TrygFonden

Evaluation of the healthcare resource use and the related financial costs of managing peanut allergy in the United Kingdom

Aims: We aimed to estimate the resource use and associated costs for patients with peanut allergy (PA) compared to matched controls. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study using data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics. PA patients were matched to two control cohorts: the first (simple-matched) were matched 1:1 on year of birth, general practice, gender and registration year. The second (atopy-matched) were matched on the same characteristics plus presence/absence of an atopic condition. Prescriptions and primary and secondary care contacts were compared between cases and controls. Results: 15,483 peanut-allergic patients were identified: 13,609 (87.9%) were simple-matched and 9,320 (60.2%) atopy-matched. The total per person annual incremental health-care costs associated with PA were £253 (atopy-matched) and £333 (simple-matched). For those with PA and a prior anaphylaxis incremental costs were £662, for those prescribed an epinephrine autoinjector incremental costs were £392. Extrapolated to the U.K. population, total excess costs of PA were between £33 and 44 million in 2015. Conclusions: Patients with PA had increased health-care contacts and consequently increased associated costs compared to controls. Observation bias should be considered in interpretation, but this study suggests that PA presents significant burden to health-care systems