Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Electric-Sector Decision Making: Demand-Side Effects

Previous work by the Berkeley Lab describes how high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as wind and solar power could change wholesale electricity price dynamics. These include the timing of when electricity is cheap or expensive, locational differences in the cost of electricity, and the degree of regularity or predictability in those costs. Many decentralized decision-makers on the demand-side may not yet have considered the implications of these possible future changes. In this report, we evaluate the sensitivity of a set of demand-side decisions to different levels of VRE penetration ranging from a low of 5-20% to a high of 40-50%. The analysis builds on hourly wholesale energy and capacity prices in different VRE scenarios for four wholesale markets in the United States for the year 2030 (CAISO, ERCOT, NYISO, and SPP). The principal question for this exploration is whether private and public electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE scenario with 40-50% wind and solar? This scoping report evaluates the impacts of changing patterns of peak system needs on the benefits of demand reductions by examining the altered value of different energy efficiency (EE) measures. Similarly, we investigate new opportunities for large energy consumers that may arise from periods with very low wholesale electricity prices. We calculate the value of new process investments (e.g., hydrogen production and other generalized electro-commodities), showcase the varying value of new product storage investments (such as reservoir extensions at a desalination plant), and estimate the benefits of increased process flexibility that uses electricity as a process-input in addition to traditional fossil fuels (e.g., district energy systems). Finally, many decentralized decision-makers and end-use customers are not directly exposed to wholesale electricity prices but instead receive price signals from their retail electricity rates. As wind and solar shares increase, we compare the economic efficiency of flat retail rates relative to more dynamic time-of-use tariffs with and without critical peak-pricing events

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults [Letter]

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities1,2. This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity3,4,5,6. Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017—and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions—was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing—and in some countries reversal—of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories

Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies with 128.9 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background: Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults. Methods: We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5–19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5–19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity). Findings: Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (−0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval −0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69–1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64–1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (−0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50–1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4–1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8–6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7–9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0–12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8–10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4–19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3–14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7–29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5–38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44–117) million girls and 117 (70–178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24–89) million girls and 74 (39–125) million boys worldwide were obese. Interpretation: The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults

Sensitivity analysis of the dynamic CO2 storage capacity estimate for the Bunter Sandstone of the UK Southern North Sea

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) in subsurface reservoirs has been identified as a potentially cost-effective way to reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Global emissions reductions on the gigatonne scale using CCS will require regional or basin-scale deployment of CO2 storage in saline aquifers. Thus the evaluation of both the dynamic and ultimate CO2 storage capacity of formations is important for policy makers to determine the viability of CCS as a pillar of the greenhouse gas mitigation strategy in a particular region. We use a reservoir simulation model representing the large-scale Bunter Sandstone in the UK Southern North Sea to evaluate the dynamics and sensitivities of regional CO2 plume transport and storage. At the basin-scale, we predict hydrogeological changes in the storage reservoir in response to multiple regional carbon sequestration development scenarios. We test the sensitivity of injection capacity to a range of target CO2 injection rates and fluctuations in CO2 supply. Model sensitivities varying the target injection rates indicate that in the absence of pressure management up to 3.7 Gt of CO2 can be stored in the Bunter region over 50 years given the pressure constraints set to avoid fracturing the formation. Long-term (approx. 1000 years), our results show that up to 16 Gt of CO2 can be stored in the Bunter region without pressure management. With pressure management, the estimate rises to 32 Gt. However, consideration must be given to the additional operational and economic requirements of pressure management using brine production

The promotion of local wellbeing: A primer for policymakers

There is growing interest among policymakers in the promotion of wellbeing as an objective of public policy. In particular, local authorities have been given powers to undertake action to promote wellbeing in their area. Recent advances in the academic literature on wellbeing are giving rise to an increasingly detailed picture of the factors that determine people’s subjective wellbeing (how they think and feel about their lives). However, the concept of subjective wellbeing is poorly understood within local government and much of the evidence base is extremely recent. I therefore review the literature on the definition, measurement, and determinants of wellbeing, and discuss some of its implications for local public policy

Retinal Microvascular Dysfunction Occurs Early and Similarly in Mild Alzheimer’s Disease and Primary-Open Angle Glaucoma Patients

Purpose: To assess the similarities and differences in retinal microvascular function between mild Alzheimer’s disease (AD) patients, early-stage primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) patients and healthy controls. Methods: Retinal vessel reactivity to flickering light was assessed in 10 AD, 19 POAG and 20 healthy age matched control patients by means of dynamic retinal vessel analysis (DVA, IMEDOS, GmbH, Jena, Germany) according to an established protocol. All patients additionally underwent BP measurements and blood analysis for glucose and lipid metabolism markers. Results: AD and POAG patients demonstrated comparable alterations in retinal artery reactivity, in the form of an increased arterial reaction time (RT) to flicker light on the final flicker cycle (p = 0.009), which was not replicated by healthy controls (p > 0.05). Furthermore, the sequential changes in RT on progressing from flicker one to flicker three were found to differ between healthy controls and the two disease groups (p = 0.001). Conclusion: AD and POAG patients demonstrate comparable signs of vascular dysfunction in their retinal arteries at the early stages of their disease process. This provides support for the concept of a common underlying vascular aetiology in these two neurodegenerative diseases

The use of happiness research for public policy

Research on happiness tends to follow a "benevolent dictator" approach where politicians pursue people's happiness. This paper takes an antithetic approach based on the insights of public choice theory. First, we inquire how the results of happiness research may be used to improve the choice of institutions. Second, we show that the policy approach matters for the choice of research questions and the kind of knowledge happiness research aims to provide. Third, we emphasize that there is no shortcut to an optimal policy maximizing some happiness indicator or social welfare function since governments have an incentive to manipulate this indicator

Classifying Cognitive Profiles Using Machine Learning with Privileged Information in Mild Cognitive Impairment

Early diagnosis of dementia is critical for assessing disease progression and potential treatment. State-or-the-art machine learning techniques have been increasingly employed to take on this diagnostic task. In this study, we employed Generalised Matrix Learning Vector Quantization (GMLVQ) classifiers to discriminate patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) from healthy controls based on their cognitive skills. Further, we adopted a ``Learning with privileged information'' approach to combine cognitive and fMRI data for the classification task. The resulting classifier operates solely on the cognitive data while it incorporates the fMRI data as privileged information (PI) during training. This novel classifier is of practical use as the collection of brain imaging data is not always possible with patients and older participants.MCI patients and healthy age-matched controls were trained to extract structure from temporal sequences. We ask whether machine learning classifiers can be used to discriminate patients from controls based on the learning performance and whether differences between these groups relate to individual cognitive profiles. To this end, we tested participants in four cognitive tasks: working memory, cognitive inhibition, divided attention, and selective attention. We also collected fMRI data before and after training on the learning task and extracted fMRI responses and connectivity as features for machine learning classifiers. Our results show that the PI guided GMLVQ classifiers outperform the baseline classifier that only used the cognitive data. In addition, we found that for the baseline classifier, divided attention is the only relevant cognitive feature. When PI was incorporated, divided attention remained the most relevant feature while cognitive inhibition became also relevant for the task. Interestingly, this analysis for the fMRI GMLVQ classifier suggests that (1) when overall fMRI signal for structured stimuli is used as inputs to the classifier, the post-training session is most relevant; and (2) when the graph feature reflecting underlying spatiotemporal fMRI pattern is used, the pre-training session is most relevant. Taken together these results suggest that brain connectivity before training and overall fMRI signal after training are both diagnostic of cognitive skills in MCI

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.Bin Zhou, Yuan Lu, Kaveh Hajifathalian, James Bentham … Robert J. Adams … Anne Taylor … et al. (WNCD Risk Factor Collaboration