The software JMulTi

Die Dissertation entwickelt und untersucht Methoden für die Analyse dynamischer Mehrgleichungsmodelle (VAR Modelle). Zuerst wird ein allgemeines Konzept für die Einbindung statistischer Prozeduren in eine menügesteuerte Software entwickelt. Die resultierende Java--Bibliothek besteht aus konfigurierbaren Oberflächenkomponenten und Funktionen, die die Kommunikation zum statistischen Softwarepaket GAUSS ermöglichen. Diese Bibliothek ist die Grundlage für die Software JMulTi, einem menügeführten Programm zur Analyse univariater und multivariater Zeitreihen. Der Einsatz von JMulTi bei der Analyse von VAR Modellen wird anschließend dokumentiert. Dazu werden für den monetären Sektor in Deutschland unrestringierte und restringierte VAR Modelle geschätzt und unterschiedliche Bootstrapkonfidenzintervallen für Impulsantworten berechnet und verglichen. Diese Intervalle sind Gegenstand einer abschließenden und detaillierten Analyse. Es wird untersucht, ob die in JMulTi verwendeten Bootstrapverfahren (und weitergehende Vorschläge wie z.B. das Subsampling) in der Lage sind, die mögliche Inkonsistenz des standardasymptotischen Verfahrens bei der Berechnung von Konfidenzintervallen für Impulsantworten zu überwinden. Eine Monte-Carlo-Studie illustriert die Leistungsfähigkeit der untersuchten Methoden.The thesis develops and examines tools for the analysis of dynamic multi-equation models (VAR models). First, a general concept for the integration of statistic procedures into a menu controlled software is developed. The resulting Java-library consists of configurable graphical user interface components and functions, which allow communication to the statistic software package GAUSS. This library is the basis for the software JMulTi, a menu-driven program for analyzing univariate and multivariate time series. The use of JMulTi for analyzing VAR models is documented next. Unrestricted and restricted VAR models for the monetary sector of Germany are estimated and different bootstrap confidence intervals for impulse responses are computed and compared. These intervals are subject of a concluding and detailed analysis. It is examined whether the bootstrap methods used in JMulTi (and further suggestions, e.g. the subsampling) are able to overcome the possible inconsistency of the standard asymptotic method when computing confidence intervals for impulse responses. A Monte-Carlo-study illustrates the performance of the examined methods

'Think football': exploring a football for mental health initiative delivered in the community through the lens of personal and social recovery

The practice and discourse of mental health recovery is evolving, with increasing appreciation given to personal recovery and now social recovery. It therefore follows that we need initiatives that enhance levels of social capital, positive social identities and social inclusion within the community, not just within mental health services. These initiatives must bring people together in ways that allow them to feel that they have ownership of any new social infrastructures and use evidence-based frameworks to evaluate them. One context that has been given some consideration is the use of community sport. This paper therefore contributes to the steadily growing literature in this area by exploring the specifics of a community mental health football project, through the utilisation of the personal and social recovery frameworks that have been established within the ‘mainstream’ mental health evidence base. This relativist study utilised seventeen semi-structured interviews (with participants and staff) and, as a deliberate departure from existing research, chose to adopt a deductive, theoretical approach to the analysis that located the data within the personal recovery and social recovery literature. Both participants and staff were considerably positive about the sessions, and data suggested an adherence to the empirically based CHIME personal recovery framework. In terms of alignment with the social recovery concepts, the data was particularly robust in supporting active citizenship processes, which can increase levels of social capital and enhance social identities. Future work is required to further explore the contextual impact of poverty and employment, and the role that sport can potentially play

Where the action is: towards a discursive psychology of “authentic” identity in soccer fandom

Objectives: Fandom underpins a wide range of foundational sporting activities. The corpus of psychological research on the topic remains, however, largely concerned with (a) producing of formal taxonomies of fans, and (b) making the analytic distinction between authentic “fans” and mere “spectators.” This work is premised on the classical - but problematic - social-cognitive assumption that identity itself both precedes and (largely) determines the manner in which it is communicated. As such, the core objective of this paper is to take provisional empirical steps towards a formal psychology of “authentic” sporting fandom that does not replicate this troublesome assumption. Design: A Discursive Psychological framework is used to explore how self-identified soccer fans make “robust” cases for the authenticity of their own fan-identities. Method: N=26 unstructured interviews are analysed to highlight the constructive and attributional techniques drawn upon by speakers when making cases, and the culturally-available knowledges and contextual reasoning procedures that these make apparent. Results: Three models for legitimating fan-identity are described: (a) longitudinal endurance, (b) logical choice-making and (c) emotional imperative. It is noted how key issues that inform social-cognitive analysis are actually assembled as members’ concerns in the service of persuasively accounting for particular claims in situ, and that this can facilitate a stronger understanding of the interrelation between sporting culture and social identity itself. Conclusions: Until a stronger description of public procedures for self-identification is advanced, analytic abstractions made for the sake of “clarity” can guarantee no relevance to the social psychological lives of everyday fans themselves

Problems Related to Bootstrapping Impulse Responses of Autoregressive Processes

Bootstrap confidence intervals for impulse responses computed from autoregressive processes are considered. A detailed analysis of the methods in current use shows that they are not very reliable in some cases. In particular, there are theoretical reasons for them to have actual coverage probabilities which deviate considerably from the nominal level in some situations of practical importance. For a simple case alternative bootstrap methods are proposed which provide correct results asymptotically

Clashing Sub-Cultures: The Rivalry Between the Fans of Aston Villa and Birmingham City Football Clubs

This thesis explores the football fan rivalry between the fans of Aston Villa and Birmingham City. Football fan rivalries are unique and complex, with each one being underpinned by various social, historical and/or cultural factors. Therefore, each rivalry should be studied in-depth in order to understand the underlying factors that shape oppositions and social identities. This rivalry has previously received no academic attention, despite these two being the main clubs in Birmingham, England’s second largest city, with a long history of intra-city rivalry since the first fixture between the two in 1879. The constructivist approach adopted perceived people’s knowledge, opinions, interpretations and experiences as meaningful properties of social reality and, thus, this study aimed to gather data from those who actually experience the rivalry – the fans. An ethnographic study was undertaken in order to elicit rich, qualitative data and to gain a deep and reality congruent insight into the complex factors that underpin the rivalry. Participant observation was conducted at matches involving Aston Villa and Birmingham City. Additionally, semi-structured interviews were conducted with fans of the two clubs, with data being subjected to coding and a thematic analysis. Informed by a cultural studies framework that focused on the centrality of power, the analysis identified three central themes underpinning the rivalry. The first theme was the constant struggle between the fan groups over territory. Fans placed great value on being perceived to control certain areas, or even the whole city, in order to gain power (territorial capital) and become the dominant identity. This is particularly significant as a detailed exploration of territory has previously been absent from football rivalry literature. Secondly, tensions were based on the historical footballing success of Aston Villa, and on Birmingham City’s relative lack of success. Villa fans were perceived as the dominant group as the success of the team afforded them high levels of (sub)cultural capital. Thirdly, the contestation over power was informed by the perceived socio-economic status of each fan group, with Villa fans being perceived as more middle-class and Blues fans more working-class. These complex factors are continually contested and under negotiation, with the passion and intensity of the rivalry enduring as both fan groups battle for dominance. In addition to exploring this particular rivalry for the first time, this study has contributed to the limited but growing literature on rivalries, providing a clear methodological and theoretical framework for future research in this area, which was previously lacking

Exploring children's physical activity behaviours according to location: A mixed-methods case study

The school environment is ideally placed to facilitate physical activity (PA) with numerous windows of opportunity from break and lunch times, to lesson times and extracurricular clubs. However, little is known about how children interact with the school environment to engage in PA and the other locations they visit daily, including time spent outside of the school environment i.e., evening and weekend locations. Moreover, there has been little research incorporating a mixed-methods approach that captures children's voices alongside objectively tracking children's PA patterns. The aim of this study was to explore children's PA behaviours according to different locations. Sixty children (29 boys, 31 girls)-35 key stage 2 (aged 9-11) and 25 key stage 3 (aged 11-13)-wore an integrated global positioning systems (GPS) and heart rate (HR) monitor over four consecutive days. A subsample of children (n = 32) were invited to take part in one of six focus groups to further explore PA behaviours and identify barriers and facilitators to PA. Children also completed a PA diary. The KS2 children spent significantly more time outdoors than KS3 children (p = 0.009). Boys engaged in more light PA (LPA) when on foot and in school, compared with girls (p = 0.003). KS3 children engaged in significantly more moderate PA (MPA) at school than KS2 children (p = 0.006). Focus groups revealed fun, enjoyment, friends, and family to be associated with PA, and technology, costs, and weather to be barriers to PA. This mixed methodological study highlights differences in the PA patterns and perceptions of children according to age and gender. Future studies should utilize a multi-method approach to gain a greater insight into children's PA patterns and inform future health policies that differentiate among a range of demographic groups of children.Published versio

A agent based modelling framework for dynamic biological systems and applications to cancer cells, G protein coupled receptors and G proteins

Dynamic real-world biological systems are quite difficult to study because it requires us to understand the interactions within, without being able to isolate them. This hidden complexity means, when designing representative models, problems often arise in appropriate representation, abstraction and applicable comparison with real-world phenomena. The way distinct systems evolve over time by interaction between population members and their environment can generate emergent patterns of behaviour, here we observed it indirectly via visualisation of movement. This work centres on improving our understanding of real-world complex dynamic spatial biological systems, looking at two example populations: Cancer cells and G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs), for support of biological exploration and hypothesis development. A framework was developed to take sets of population tracks and digitise them in a unifying representation for observation that could also be used to design representative models. Representative visual patterns were found and replicated: strand-like movement patterns from Cancer cells and movement hot-zones in GPCR and G protein sets. We isolated and visualised movement choices in relation to position and time. Artificial neural nets (ANN) were also applied to image classification; generating similarity measures between model and biological systems. Populations could also be split with ANNs on individual track morphology to assess specific pattern subsets. We successfully developed and applied our framework by applying generalised analysis and modelling tools to gain insight into our chosen biological systems

An ethnographic study exploring football sessions for medium-secure mental health service-users: utilising the CHIME conceptual framework as an evaluative tool

A key part of developing an understanding of ‘what works’ within the evolving mental health recovery evidence base is finding ways of service-users (and their friends and family) and practitioners working collaboratively. This interaction is slowly shifting practice, whereby care is potentially co-constructed in a setting between those involved to facilitate recovery-oriented processes. Increasingly, mental health services are appreciating the potential role of sport. This study adds to this body of literature by providing analysis of a football project in a medium-secure service context. This study also expands the methodological and theoretical scope of the literature by adopting an ethnographic approach and by utilising the CHIME conceptual framework as an evaluative tool. 47 participants were involved in the study, which included service-users, staff and volunteers. The data demonstrated that these sessions have considerable links to the CHIME processes, and can therefore be considered to enhance personal recovery for those involved

“We are the forgotten grievers”: Bereaved family members’ experiences of support and mental ill-health following a road traffic collision

Road traffic collisions (RTCs) are a global public health concern; however, research on the impact of bereavement on families remains limited. A critical realist approach was adopted to explore experiences of families suffering bereavement following RTCs, using interviews with 14 participants in the United Kingdom (UK) who have lost a family member. Three key themes were identified: (1) worsening mental health following bereavement, (2) negative impact of an RTC-related bereavement upon family members, (3) limited support following an RTC. Findings highlighted the requirement for appropriate support for bereaved families, and outlined significant flaws within the UK legal system, sentencing, and treatment of families

Reflections on Co-production, Lived Experience and the Shared Learning Environment within the Development and Early Delivery of a Recovery College.

Objective: This study sought to explore and value the experiences of the service users, staff, carers, and volunteers who were involved in the development and early establishment of a recovery college in a large mental health Trust in the United Kingdom. Research Design and Methods: This qualitative study used Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA) to explore the experiences of 25 participants who were involved in the design, development, and early delivery phases of the recovery college. Data were collected using face-to-face semi-structured interviews. Results: The findings discuss a number of key features relating to participants’ experiences of the development of the recovery college, with the central themes of 1) co-production; 2) lived experience; and 3) the shared learning environment. Conclusions: Key recommendations for those seeking to develop their own recovery college include: i) co-production is essential, but there are both philosophical and practical considerations; ii) lived experience is valuable, but it needs to be valued and supported within both the recovery college and the host organization; and iii) the shared learning environment and educational approach of the college is vital and needs equity of opportunity between the service users, staff, carers, and volunteers involved