Framework for collaborative intelligence in forecasting day-ahead electricity price

Electricity price forecasting in wholesale markets is an essential asset for deciding bidding strategies and operational schedules. The decision making process is limited if no understanding is given on how and why such electricity price points have been forecast. The present article proposes a novel framework that promotes human–machine collaboration in forecasting day-ahead electricity price in wholesale markets. The framework is based on a new model architecture that uses a plethora of statistical and machine learning models, a wide range of exogenous features, a combination of several time series decomposition methods and a collection of time series characteristics based on signal processing and time series analysis methods. The model architecture is supported by open-source automated machine learning platforms that provide a baseline reference used for comparison purposes. The objective of the framework is not only to provide forecasts, but to promote a human-in-the-loop approach by providing a data story based on a collection of model-agnostic methods aimed at interpreting the mechanisms and behavior of the new model architecture and its predictions. The framework has been applied to the Spanish wholesale market. The forecasting results show good accuracy on mean absolute error (1.859, 95% HDI [0.575, 3.924] EUR (MWh)−1) and mean absolute scaled error (0.378, 95% HDI [0.091, 0.934]). Moreover, the framework demonstrates its human-centric capabilities by providing graphical and numeric explanations that augments understanding on the model and its electricity price point forecasts

Study of the chlorfenvinphos pesticide removal under different anodic materials and different reactor configuration

The present manuscript focuses on the study of the electrochemical oxidation of the insecticide Chlorfenvinphos (CVP). The assays were carried out under galvanostatic conditions using boron-doped diamond (BDD) and low-cost tin dioxide doped with antimony (Sb-doped SnO2) as anodes. The influence of the operating variables, such as applied current density, presence or absence of a cation-exchange membrane and concentration of supporting electrolyte, was discussed. The results revealed that the higher applied current density the higher degradation and mineralization of the insecticide for both anodes. The presence of the membrane and the highest concentration of Na2SO4 studied (0.1 M) as a supporting electrolyte benefited the oxidation process of CVP using the BDD electrode, while with the ceramic anode the elimination of CVP was lower under these experimental conditions. Although the BDD electrode showed the best performance, ceramic anodes appear as an interesting alternative as they were able to degrade CVP completely for the highest applied current density values. Toxicity tests revealed that the initial solution of CVP was more toxic than the samples treated with the ceramic electrode, while using the BDD electrode the toxicity of the sample increased

Promoción de la salud y entornos saludables

A forestar forestalAplicación de un programa educativo participativo en salud  bucal a una comunidad de adultos mayoresBiblioteca móvil y su implementación en el hospital Padre HurtadoConsumo de riesgo de alcohol en Chile: una propuesta innovadora de intervenciónDiseño de un programa interactivo de promoción de la salud vocal para NB1Encuentro formativo en promoción de salud y gestión de entornos saludables para TenoExperiencia docente: programa intersectorial de promoción/prevención en preescolares de comunas vulnerables, Región MetropolitanaFiltrado glomerular, método preventivo aparición de fibrosis sistémica nefrogénica por gadolinio en examen de RMImplementación de consejerías en vida sana en APS, Región de los RíosMedicina preventiva en feria libre de la población San Gregorio: Cecof San Gregorio, Contagiando SaludMetodología innovadora en la enseñanza de una ectoparasitosisPrevención de accidentes por monóxido de carbono en edificios, Providencia 2002-2009Programa de promoción y prevención en salud bucal para preescolaresPromoviendo hábitos saludables en los vecinos de Reñaca Alto, Viña del Mar, 2009Rol de la capacitación en la implementación de acciones para la prevención de la obesidadSatisfacción usuaria en el Cesfam Natales a un año de su funcionamientoTres estrategias publicitarias y de comunicación aplicadas al consumo de alcohol de bajo riesgoTropa de la salud: uso de los medios como forma de promover la salu

Factors affecting survival in Mediterranean populations of the Eurasian eagle owl

The survival rate is a key parameter for population management and the monitoring of populations. Thus, an analysis of survival rate variations and the factors influencing the same is essential for understanding population dynamics. Here, we study the factors determining the survival and the causes of mortality of the Eurasian eagle owl (Bubo bubo) in two Spanish Mediterranean populations (Murcia and Seville) where the species has a high population density and breeding success; yet its survival rates and the factors that affect them are unknown. Between 2003 and 2010, 63 breeding owls were captured and radio-tracked. Three monthly (quarterly) survival rates were estimated using known-fate models in the program MARK. The mean overall annual survival rate was 0.776 (95 % CI: 0.677, 0.875). We observed survival differences between sexes, and between the breeding and non-breeding periods, although no overwhelming support was found for any particular model. We concluded that (i) females have a lower survival rate than males, probably due to their larger home ranges, which increase the risk of mortality; (ii) the survival rates of both sexes were lower during the non-breeding period; and (iii) the causes of mortality differed significantly between the two populations, gunshot being the main cause in Seville and electrocution in Murcia.Peer Reviewe

Actualidad y prospectiva de la investigación científica en el Centro Universitario Amecameca de la Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México

Con responsabilidad, se organizó un programa cuya finalidad fuera publicitar con transparencia dichos avances, a través de un esfuerzo de rendición de cuentas a la comunidad inmediata, la universitaria, y a la comunidad abierta, la sociedad que la principal referencia para tal efecto. El programa se concretiza a través del presente libro, conformado con una inspiración de investigación multidisciplinaria; sin embargo, para llegar a tal fin, el reto es realizar el proceso de búsqueda y generación de conocimiento transitando hacia la colaboración de los cuerpos académicos, que puedan construir nuevos conocimientos fortalecidos por la convergencia de diferentes campos del saber. En consecuencia, la primera etapa de esta estrategia es la publicidad de los trabajos investigativos ejercidos, para hacer un balance al día, pero también proyectar el futuro de cada campo y área del conocimiento. La organización explicativa está organizada por tres bloques representativos del quehacer en la generación de conocimiento del Centro Universitario, un primer bloque centra el interés en las humanidades, educación y sustentabilidad; el segundo bloque lo integra la reflexión científica sobre la construcción democrática, derechos humanos y equidad de género; en el tercer segmento se destina a la seguridad alimentaria, salud pública y sistemas agropecuarios. La actualidad de la investigación eleva la producción lograda y lo que en el momento se encuentra en construcción y los alcances que produce para la docencia, la investigación misma, y para la sociedad en general. La prospectiva es un área que todos los capítulos desarrollan con el propósito de delinear los alcances innovadores por andar en teoría, metodología e incluso en los saberes mismo

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Panhead accelerations-based methodology for monitoring the stagger in overhead contact line systems

The monitoring of overhead contact lines (OCL) is a key part of railway infrastructure maintenance. This paper proposes a methodology to assess the lateral geometry of contact wire, the so-called stagger, by using the dynamic response of a pantograph. The methodology is tested in a validated virtual environment that resembles the behaviour of the pantograph when it interacts with the OCL. A signal processing is developed to define features relating the lateral position of the contact wire with the vertical acceleration of the contact strip. It is demonstrated that these features have a clear and close connection with the lateral position of the contact wire. Subsequently, model-driven machine learning algorithms are defined using these features to address the OCL stagger prediction and the detection of out-of-range lateral displacement due to a faulty steady-arm. The methodology shows a good prediction performance in the estimation of the stagger amplitude/central position and the steady-arms diagnosis. The prediction of the stagger amplitude is performed with a root-mean-square error of 4.7(10) mm. In addition, the area under the Precision-Recall curve is 0.952 CI95 [0.940, 0.962] for the steady-arms diagnosis

Framework for collaborative intelligence in forecasting day-ahead electricity price

Electricity price forecasting in wholesale markets is an essential asset for deciding bidding strategies and operational schedules. The decision making process is limited if no understanding is given on how and why such electricity price points have been forecast. The present article proposes a novel framework that promotes human–machine collaboration in forecasting day-ahead electricity price in wholesale markets. The framework is based on a new model architecture that uses a plethora of statistical and machine learning models, a wide range of exogenous features, a combination of several time series decomposition methods and a collection of time series characteristics based on signal processing and time series analysis methods. The model architecture is supported by open-source automated machine learning platforms that provide a baseline reference used for comparison purposes. The objective of the framework is not only to provide forecasts, but to promote a human-in-the-loop approach by providing a data story based on a collection of model-agnostic methods aimed at interpreting the mechanisms and behavior of the new model architecture and its predictions. The framework has been applied to the Spanish wholesale market. The forecasting results show good accuracy on mean absolute error (1.859, 95% HDI [0.575, 3.924] EUR (MWh)−1) and mean absolute scaled error (0.378, 95% HDI [0.091, 0.934]). Moreover, the framework demonstrates its human-centric capabilities by providing graphical and numeric explanations that augments understanding on the model and its electricity price point forecasts