Effect of seed pretreatment on germination of Bobgunnia madagascariensis (Desv.) J.H. Kirkbr & Wiersema

Knowledge of the method of seed germination is an important step of the domestication of crop plants. The objective of this study was to test the aptitude of germination of Bobgunnia madagascariensis (Desv.) using pretreatment condition. Eight batches of seeds were evaluated in two distinct substrates; namely sandy soil and ferralitic soil: (i) soaking of seed in cold water for 24 hours; (ii) soaking in hot water at 100 o C for 5 mm followed by in immersion into tap water for 24 hours, and (iii) scarification with razor blade. For each substrate, the treatments were compared to untreated controls. Results showed that seeds sown after scarification recorded the highest germination percentage (77.78%) with sandy soil (P < 0.05). Sandy soil also reduced the waiting time of germination (11.00 ± 0.00 days) and germination time (5.00 ± 0.5 days). Results of this study may serve as useful information for domestication of Bobgunnia madagascariensis (Desv.). &nbsp

Health needs and health seeking behaviour of Internally Displaced Persons in Dalori camp, Maiduguri, Borno State, Nigeria

Objectives: In recent years, thousands of people have been displaced due to conflict and have been forced to live in crowded camps. The study assessed the common health problems, health needs and healthseeking behaviours of internally displaced persons in Nigeria.Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive design was used to study 240 randomly selected respondents using an interviewer-administered semi-structured questionnaire. Data collected were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistical techniques.Results: The prevalence of communicable disease outbreak was 59.2% and common health problems of the IDPs were malaria (97.9%), cold and catarrh (65.8%), heart diseases (56.7%), and diarrhoea (53.3%). Findings also revealed that access of IDPs to potable water, insecticide-treated nets (ITN), blankets and health care facility, as well as waste disposal, were generally poor. A large proportion of the respondents reported overcrowding (45.8%), inconducive housing (94.6%), dirty environment (54.6%) and poor food distribution (90%) in the camp. Furthermore, factors that predicted poor health among the IDPs include: educational status (OR: 0.397, p = 0.010), poor water supply (OR: 0.343, p = 0.006), hand washing (OR: 7.064, p = 0.004), and overcrowding (OR: 0.055, p = 0.001).Conclusion: This study concluded that ccommon health problems among the IDPs were malaria, cold and catarrh, heart diseases and diarrhoea and their health needs include lack of access to potable water and inadequate health care services.Keywords: Health-seeking behaviour , Health – need, Internally Displaced Persons, Nigeri

Variabilité Intra-saisonnière des Pluies et Production du Sorgho en Zones Soudanienne et Sahélienne du Mali

           L’agriculture malienne, pilier du développement économique et de la sécurité alimentaire des populations, est affectée par les dérèglements climatiques en raison de son caractère essentiellement pluvial. La présente recherche a pour objectif d’analyser les effets de l’instabilité intra-saisonnière des pluies afin d’identifier les périodes optimales de semis du sorgho en zones soudanienne et sahélienne du Mali. A partir des hauteurs journalières de pluie de la station de Katibougou et de San entre 1987 et 2018 fournies par l’Agence pour la Sécurité et la Navigation Aérienne (ASECNAC) du Mali, les dates de début et de fin de saison ont été déterminées. Ensuite, l’analyse fréquentielle du début, de la fin et de la longueur des saisons a été faite aux fréquences de 2, 5 et 8 années sur 10. De même, la fréquence des séquences sèches et humides pendant la saison culturale a été analysée. Les résultats ont montré que dans le cercle de Koulikoro, les dates probables des démarrages de la pluie se situent entre le 06 mai et le 01 août de chaque année. Par contre à San, les dates probables des démarrages de la pluie se situent entre le 12 mai et le 01 août de chaque année.  A Koulikoro, la fin de la saison pluvieuse se situe généralement entre le 06 septembre et le 04 novembre. A San, la fin de la saison pluvieuse se situe généralement entre le 03 septembre et le 02 novembre. Les poches de sècheresse de 5 jours (SS1) sont les pauses pluviométriques constatées dans le cercle de Koulikoro et elles décroissent au fur et à mesure jusqu’au mois de septembre. Les SS4 s’accroissent jusqu’à partir du mois de juillet à octobre. A San, les SS1 et SS4 sont similaires à ceux du cercle de Koulikoro. Par contre, les SS3 sont un peu élevés durant les mois de mai, juillet, août et septembre. Dans le cercle de Koulikoro sur 2, 5 et 8 années sur 10, la durée de la saison agricole est de 159, 132 et 102 jours. Dans ces conditions, la variété du sorgho de 90 jours et de 105 jours peut se cultiver normalement depuis la levée jusqu’à la maturation. Par contre à San, sur 2,5 et 8 années sur 10, la durée de la saison agricole est de 123, 108 et 89 jours, dans ces conditions, la variété du sorgho de 90 jours peut se cultiver normalement depuis la levée jusqu’à la maturation, par contre la variété de 90 est compromise sur 8 années sur 10  et  celle de 105 jours est compromise sur 5 et 8 années sur 10. Au regard de l’intérêt que les producteurs accordent à la culture du sorgho et de l’instabilité intra-saisonnière des pluies, ils s’approprient plusieurs mesures d’adaptation (planification du calendrier agricole, adoption de la variété culturale à cycle court, utilisation d’engrais) dont l’efficacité mérite d’être analysée.   Malian agriculture, a pillar of economic development and food security, is affected by climatic disturbances because of its essentially rainfed nature. The objective of this research is to analyse the effects of intra-seasonal rainfall instability in order to identify optimal sorghum sowing periods in the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of Mali. From the daily rainfall amounts of the Katibougou and San stations between 1987 and 2018 provided by the Malian Agency for Air Safety and Navigation (ASECNAC), the start and end of the season dates were determined. Then, the frequency analysis of the beginning, end and length of the seasons was done at frequencies of 2. 5 and 8 years out of 10. Similarly, the frequency of dry and wet sequences during the cropping season was analysed. The results showed that in the Koulikoro district, the probable dates for the start of rainfall are between 6 May and 1 August each year. In contrast, in San, the probable dates for the start of the rainfall are between 12 May and 1 August each year.  In Koulikoro, the end of the rainy season is generally between 6 September and 4 November. In San, the end of the rainy season is generally between 03 September and 02 November. The 5-day drought pockets (SS1) are the rainfall breaks observed in the Koulikoro district and they decrease progressively until September. SS4 increases from July to October. In San, SS1 and SS4 are similar to those in Koulikoro, but, SS3 is slightly higher in May, July, August and September. In the Koulikoro district, the length of the agricultural season in 2. 5 and 8 years out of 10 is 159. 132 and 102 days. Under these conditions, the 90-day and 105-day sorghum varieties can be grown normally from emergence to maturation. On the other hand, in San, over 2. 5 and 8 years out of 10, the length of the agricultural season is 123. 108 and 89 days, under these conditions, the 90-day sorghum variety can be grown normally from emergence to maturation, while the 90-day variety is compromised over 8 years out of 10 and the 105-day variety is compromised over 5 and 8 years out of 10. In view of the interest that producers have in growing sorghum and the intra-seasonal instability of rainfall, they have adopted several adaptation measures (planning of the agricultural calendar, adoption of the short-cycle crop variety, use of fertilisers), the effectiveness of which deserves to be analysed

Variabilité Intra-saisonnière des Pluies et Production du Sorgho en Zones Soudanienne et Sahélienne du Mali

L’agriculture malienne, pilier du développement économique et de la sécurité alimentaire des populations, est affectée par les dérèglements climatiques en raison de son caractère essentiellement pluvial. La présente recherche a pour objectif d’analyser les effets de l’instabilité intra-saisonnière des pluies afin d’identifier les périodes optimales de semis du sorgho en zones soudanienne et sahélienne du Mali. A partir des hauteurs journalières de pluie de la station de katibougou et de San entre 1987 et 2018 fournies par l’Agence pour la Sécurité et la Navigation Aérienne (ASECNAC) du Mali, les dates de début et de fin de saison ont été déterminées. Ensuite, l’analyse fréquentielle du début, de la fin et de la longueur des saisons a été faite aux fréquences de 2, 5 et 8 années sur 10. De même, la fréquence des séquences sèches et humides pendant la saison culturale a été analysée. Les résultats ont montré que dans le cercle de Koulikoro, les dates probables des démarrages de la pluvieuse se situe entre le 06 mai et le 01 août de chaque année. Par contre à San, les dates probables des démarrages de la pluvieuse se situe entre le 12 mai et le 01 août de chaque année.  A Koulikoro, la fin de la saison pluvieuse se situe généralement entre le 06 septembre  et le 04 novembre. A San, la fin de la saison pluvieuse se situe généralement entre le 03 septembre  et le 02 novembre. Les poche de sècheresse de 5 jours (SS1) sont les pauses pluviométriques constatées dans le cercle de Koulikoro et elles décroissent au fur et à mesure jusqu’au mois de septembre. Les SS4 s’accroissent  jusqu’au à partir du mois de juillet d’octobre. A San, les SS1 et SS4 sont similaires à ceux du cercle de Koulikoro, par contre les SS3 sont un peu élevés durant les mois de mai, juillet, août et septembre. Dans le cercle de Koulikoro sur 2,5 et 8 années sur 10, la durée de la saison agricole est de 159,132 et 102 jours. Dans ces conditions, la variété du sorgho de 90 jours et de 105 jours peuvent se cultiver normalement depuis la levée jusqu’à la maturation. Par contre à San, sur 2,5 et 8 années sur 10, la durée de la saison agricole est  de 123,108 et 89 jours, dans ces conditions la variété du sorgho de 90 jours  peuvent se cultiver normalement depuis la levée jusqu’à la maturation par contre la variété de 90 est compromise sur 8 années sur 10  et  celle de 105 jours est compromise sur 5 et 8 années sur 10. Au regard de l’intérêt que les producteurs accordent à a culture du sorgho, ils s’approprient plusieurs mesures d’adaptation (planification du calendrier agricole, adoption de la variété culturale à cycle court, utilisation d’engrais) dont l’efficacité mérite d’être analysée.   Malian agriculture, a pillar of economic development and food security for populations, is affected by climatic disturbances due to its predominantly rain-fed nature. The objective of this research is to analyze the effects of intra-seasonal instability of rains in order to identify the optimal sorghum sowing periods in the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of Mali. From the daily rainfall amounts for the katibougou and San stations between 1987 and 2018 provided by the Agence pour la Sécurité et la Navigation Aérienne (ASECNAC) of Mali, the start and end dates of the season were determined. Then, the frequency analysis of the beginning, the end and the length of the seasons was made at the frequencies of 2, 5 and 8 years out of 10. Similarly, the frequency of dry and wet sequences during the cropping season was analyzed. . The results showed that in the Koulikoro, the probable dates of the start of the rainy season are between 06 May and 01 August of each year. On the other hand in San, the probable dates of the start of the rainy season are between May 12 and August 1 of each year. In Koulikoro, the end of the rainy season is generally between September 06 and November 04. In San, the end of the rainy season is usually between September 3 and November 2. The 5-day drought pockets (SS1) are the rainfall breaks observed in the Koulikoro circle and they gradually decrease until September. The SS4 are increasing until from July to October. In San, the SS1 and SS4 are similar to those in the Koulikoro circle, on the other hand the SS3 are a little high during the months of May, July, August and September. In the Koulikoro circle over 2.5 and 8 out of 10 years, the duration of the agricultural season is 159,132 and 102 days. Under these conditions, the 90-day and 105-day sorghum variety can be grown normally from emergence to maturity. On the other hand in San, over 2.5 and 8 years out of 10, the length of the agricultural season is 123, 108 and 89 days, under these conditions the 90-day sorghum variety can be grown normally from emergence to ripening. on the other hand, the 90-year variety is compromised over 8 out of 10 years and the 105-day variety is compromised over 5 and 8 out of 10 years. In view of the interest that producers give to sorghum cultivation, they appropriate several adaptation measures (planning the agricultural calendar, adoption of the short-cycle crop variety, use of fertilizers) whose effectiveness deserves to be analyzed

Variabilité Intra-saisonnière des Pluies et Production du Sorgho en Zones Soudanienne et Sahélienne du Mali

L’agriculture malienne, pilier du développement économique et de la sécurité alimentaire des populations, est affectée par les dérèglements climatiques en raison de son caractère essentiellement pluvial. La présente recherche a pour objectif d’analyser les effets de l’instabilité intra-saisonnière des pluies afin d’identifier les périodes optimales de semis du sorgho en zones soudanienne et sahélienne du Mali. A partir des hauteurs journalières de pluie de la station de katibougou et de San entre 1987 et 2018 fournies par l’Agence pour la Sécurité et la Navigation Aérienne (ASECNAC) du Mali, les dates de début et de fin de saison ont été déterminées. Ensuite, l’analyse fréquentielle du début, de la fin et de la longueur des saisons a été faite aux fréquences de 2, 5 et 8 années sur 10. De même, la fréquence des séquences sèches et humides pendant la saison culturale a été analysée. Les résultats ont montré que dans le cercle de Koulikoro, les dates probables des démarrages de la pluvieuse se situe entre le 06 mai et le 01 août de chaque année. Par contre à San, les dates probables des démarrages de la pluvieuse se situe entre le 12 mai et le 01 août de chaque année.  A Koulikoro, la fin de la saison pluvieuse se situe généralement entre le 06 septembre  et le 04 novembre. A San, la fin de la saison pluvieuse se situe généralement entre le 03 septembre  et le 02 novembre. Les poche de sècheresse de 5 jours (SS1) sont les pauses pluviométriques constatées dans le cercle de Koulikoro et elles décroissent au fur et à mesure jusqu’au mois de septembre. Les SS4 s’accroissent  jusqu’au à partir du mois de juillet d’octobre. A San, les SS1 et SS4 sont similaires à ceux du cercle de Koulikoro, par contre les SS3 sont un peu élevés durant les mois de mai, juillet, août et septembre. Dans le cercle de Koulikoro sur 2,5 et 8 années sur 10, la durée de la saison agricole est de 159,132 et 102 jours. Dans ces conditions, la variété du sorgho de 90 jours et de 105 jours peuvent se cultiver normalement depuis la levée jusqu’à la maturation. Par contre à San, sur 2,5 et 8 années sur 10, la durée de la saison agricole est  de 123,108 et 89 jours, dans ces conditions la variété du sorgho de 90 jours  peuvent se cultiver normalement depuis la levée jusqu’à la maturation par contre la variété de 90 est compromise sur 8 années sur 10  et  celle de 105 jours est compromise sur 5 et 8 années sur 10. Au regard de l’intérêt que les producteurs accordent à a culture du sorgho, ils s’approprient plusieurs mesures d’adaptation (planification du calendrier agricole, adoption de la variété culturale à cycle court, utilisation d’engrais) dont l’efficacité mérite d’être analysée.   Malian agriculture, a pillar of economic development and food security for populations, is affected by climatic disturbances due to its predominantly rain-fed nature. The objective of this research is to analyze the effects of intra-seasonal instability of rains in order to identify the optimal sorghum sowing periods in the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of Mali. From the daily rainfall amounts for the katibougou and San stations between 1987 and 2018 provided by the Agence pour la Sécurité et la Navigation Aérienne (ASECNAC) of Mali, the start and end dates of the season were determined. Then, the frequency analysis of the beginning, the end and the length of the seasons was made at the frequencies of 2, 5 and 8 years out of 10. Similarly, the frequency of dry and wet sequences during the cropping season was analyzed. . The results showed that in the Koulikoro, the probable dates of the start of the rainy season are between 06 May and 01 August of each year. On the other hand in San, the probable dates of the start of the rainy season are between May 12 and August 1 of each year. In Koulikoro, the end of the rainy season is generally between September 06 and November 04. In San, the end of the rainy season is usually between September 3 and November 2. The 5-day drought pockets (SS1) are the rainfall breaks observed in the Koulikoro circle and they gradually decrease until September. The SS4 are increasing until from July to October. In San, the SS1 and SS4 are similar to those in the Koulikoro circle, on the other hand the SS3 are a little high during the months of May, July, August and September. In the Koulikoro circle over 2.5 and 8 out of 10 years, the duration of the agricultural season is 159,132 and 102 days. Under these conditions, the 90-day and 105-day sorghum variety can be grown normally from emergence to maturity. On the other hand in San, over 2.5 and 8 years out of 10, the length of the agricultural season is 123, 108 and 89 days, under these conditions the 90-day sorghum variety can be grown normally from emergence to ripening. on the other hand, the 90-year variety is compromised over 8 out of 10 years and the 105-day variety is compromised over 5 and 8 out of 10 years. In view of the interest that producers give to sorghum cultivation, they appropriate several adaptation measures (planning the agricultural calendar, adoption of the short-cycle crop variety, use of fertilizers) whose effectiveness deserves to be analyzed

Physico-mechanical properties of cement bonded ceiling board developed from teak and African locust bean tree wood residue

Over the years, the pursuit for locally sourced economical and environmentally safe materials has been on the increase in the development of composite boards. These locally sourced materials are organic materials from plants and livestock such as wood residue, feathers, rice husk, maize husk and bamboo fiber. Therefore, this study utilizes species of wood residue in the development composite ceiling boards. Ceiling boards were developed from teak and African locust bean tree wood residue using cement as a binder. The ceiling boards were made by varying the composite mass of the mix and mixing ratio of wood dust to cement. A constant load of 5 kN was used for the compaction process using a hydraulic pressing machine. Physico-mechanical properties of the ceiling boards such as moisture content, density, water absorption, drying shrinkage, tensile strength, and compressive strength were evaluated. The percentage of moisture content were 9.50 and 14.50% for teak and African locust bean tree wood dust, respectively. The values of density varied from 0.56 � 0.68 g/cm3. The water absorption ranged from 9.0 to 39.8% after 24 h immersion and drying shrinkage ranged from 8.60 to 35%. The maximum impact energy obtained is 98 J. The highest tensile, compressive and flexural strengths for the ceiling boards were 1.09, 0.82, and 0.56 MPa, respectively. The composite samples showed that ceiling boards made from teak wood dust is most suitable for interior use. Cement was found to be suitable as a binder for the development of ceiling boards

Farmers\u2019 perceptions of climate change and adaptation strategies on sorghum productivity in the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of Mali

In Mali, climate change is a major threat to the productivity of food security crops such as sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench, 1794). The objective of this study was to analyse farmers\u2019 perceptions of climate change effects, on sorghum productivity and the adaptation related strategies. A total of 352 sorghum farmers in the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of Mali were interviewed, using a semi-structured questionnaire. Data collected were related mainly to the farmers\u2019 socio-economic profiles, indicators used to characterise climate change and strategies developed to cope with it. Irregular rainfall, marked rise in temperatures and early cessation of the rainy seasons were the main manifestations of climate change effects according to the respondents. These effects reportedly resulted in a drastic drop in sorghum yields. Use of meteorological information (19.89% of the respondents), use of early and drought-resistant varieties (13.35% of the respondents), and intercropping of sorghum with other crops (25.85% of the respondents) were the strategy options adapted by farmers. The choice of an adaptation strategies was largely dependent on the number of years of experience in sorghum production, and the number of labour providers available in the household. It is imperative to assess and refine the agronomic effectiveness of these coping strategies to improve sorghum productivity in the study areas.La pr\ue9sente \ue9tude vise \ue0 d\ue9terminer l\u2019effet des changements climatiques sur la productivit\ue9 du sorgho ( Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench, 1794) et les strat\ue9gies d\u2019adaptations mises en \u153uvre par les agriculteurs au Mali.\ua0Ainsi, les enqu\ueates ont \ue9t\ue9 effectu\ue9es dans 32 villages dans les deux zones. 352 producteurs de sorgho \ue2g\ue9s de 25 \ue0 75 ans tant dans la zone soudanienne que dans la zone sah\ue9lienne ont \ue9t\ue9 s\ue9lectionn\ue9s et soumis \ue0 un questionnaire semi structur\ue9. Les producteurs observent de nos jours une irr\ue9gularit\ue9 des pluies, des temp\ue9ratures \ue9lev\ue9es, des vents violents, des arr\ueats pr\ue9coces de la saison pluvieuse et des poches de s\ue9cheresse au cours de la saison, et des inondations (85,70%) causant une baisse drastique des rendements des cultures du sorgho. Le suivi des informations m\ue9t\ue9orologiques (19,89%) dans les m\ue9diats, l\u2019utilisation des vari\ue9t\ue9s pr\ue9coces et r\ue9sistantes \ue0 la s\ue9cheresse (13,35%), la pratique des associations culturales (25,85%), la pratique des techniques de paillage (2,27%) avec les r\ue9sidus de r\ue9colte, l\u2019apport des engrais min\ue9raux et organiques (24,72%), la pratique du za\uef (3,41%), les pratiques occultes (3,98%) sont des strat\ue9gies d\u2019adaptation mises en \u153uvre. Le choix des pratiques d\u2019adaptation est significativement (P< 0,05 \ue0 P<0,001) d\ue9termin\ue9 par la situation matrimoniale de l\u2019individu, de son exp\ue9rience dans la production et des moyens financiers dont il dispose. L\u2019\ue9tude sugg\ue8re d\u2019\ue9valuer l\u2019efficacit\ue9 de ces strat\ue9gies d\u2019adaptation pour une meilleure productivit\ue9 du sorgho dans les deux zones d\u2019\ue9tude

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Determination of thermal conductivities of some topsoils using block method

This study focuses on the determination of In situ measurement of the top soil layer, despite non-homogeneity of natural soils caused by changes in their water content, texture and structure. Thermal Conductivities of clay, loam and sand soils were determined using improved Block method with and without the use of Thermal Interface Material (TIM). KD2 Thermal Properties Analyzer was used to take instantaneous measurement of thermal conductivities with and without the use of TIM for validation. The results show increase with the application of TIM which follows the same trend with KD2 results .Thermal conductivity increases from 0.68 W/ mK to 0.85W/mK , for clay, 0.18WmK to 0.34WmK for loam and 0.34W/mK to 0.39W/mK for sand with Block method while 0.66W/mk to 0.84W/mK for clay, 0.17W/mK to 0.30W/mK for loam and 0.28 WmK to 0.33W/mK for KD2 analyzer.Keywords: Thermal Conductivity, Block method, Topsoil. Thermal Interface Material, Thermal gradien