Surface Energy Budgets of Arctic Tundra During Growing Season

This study analyzed summer observations of diurnal and seasonal surface energy budgets across several monitoring sites within the Arctic tundra underlain by permafrost. In these areas, latent and sensible heat fluxes have comparable magnitudes, and ground heat flux enters the subsurface during short summer intervals of the growing period, leading to seasonal thaw. The maximum entropy production (MEP) model was tested as an input and parameter parsimonious model of surface heat fluxes for the simulation of energy budgets of these permafrost‐underlain environments. Using net radiation, surface temperature, and a single parameter characterizing the thermal inertia of the heat exchanging surface, the MEP model estimates latent, sensible, and ground heat fluxes that agree closely with observations at five sites for which detailed flux data are available. The MEP potential evapotranspiration model reproduces estimates of the Penman‐Monteith potential evapotranspiration model that requires at least five input meteorological variables (net radiation, ground heat flux, air temperature, air humidity, and wind speed) and empirical parameters of surface resistance. The potential and challenges of MEP model application in sparsely monitored areas of the Arctic are discussed, highlighting the need for accurate measurements and constraints of ground heat flux.Plain Language SummaryGrowing season latent and sensible heat fluxes are nearly equal over the Arctic permafrost tundra regions. Persistent ground heat flux into the subsurface layer leads to seasonal thaw of the top permafrost layer. The maximum energy production model accurately estimates the latent, sensible, and ground heat flux of the surface energy budget of the Arctic permafrost regions.Key PointThe MEP model is parsimonious and well suited to modeling surface energy budget in data‐sparse permafrost environmentsPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/150560/1/jgrd55584.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/150560/2/jgrd55584_am.pd

North Atlantic variability driven by stochastic forcing in a simple model

This study investigates the mechanisms driving North Atlantic (NA) variability using a simple model that incorporates the time evolution of interactive upper ocean temperature anomalies, horizontal (Gyre, Ψg) and vertical (meridional overturning circulation, Ψm) circulation. The model is forced with multicentury long synthetic time series of external stochastic forcing that captures key statistical properties of observations such as the range of fluctuations and persistence of processes. The simulated oceanic response may be viewed as a delayed response to a cumulative atmospheric forcing over an interval defined by the system damping properties. Depending on the choice of parameters, the model suggests either compensatory mechanism (Ψm and Ψg are anti-correlated) or amplification mechanism (Ψm and Ψg are positively correlated). The compensatory mechanism implies that an increase of heat supplied by an anomalously strong Ψg would be balanced by a decrease of heat provided by a weaker Ψm and vice versa. The amplification mechanism suggests that both Ψm and Ψg maintain the heat budget in the system compensating its damping properties. Some evidence for these mechanisms is found in a global climate model. Further investigations of NA variability mechanisms are important as they improve understanding of how the NA climate system functions

Inconsistent Response of Arctic Permafrost Peatland Carbon Accumulation to Warm Climate Phases

Northern peatlands have accumulated large carbon (C) stocks since the last deglaciation and during past millennia they have acted as important atmospheric C sinks. However, it is still poorly understood how northern peatlands in general and Arctic permafrost peatlands in particular will respond to future climate change. In this study, we present C accumulation reconstructions derived from 14 peat cores from four permafrost peatlands in northeast European Russia and Finnish Lapland. The main focus is on warm climate phases. We used regression analyses to test the importance of different environmental variables such as summer temperature, hydrology, and vegetation as drivers for nonautogenic C accumulation. We used modeling approaches to simulate potential decomposition patterns. The data show that our study sites have been persistent mid- to late-Holocene C sinks with an average accumulation rate of 10.80-32.40g C m(-2) year(-1). The warmer climate phase during the Holocene Thermal Maximum stimulated faster apparent C accumulation rates while the Medieval Climate Anomaly did not. Moreover, during the Little Ice Age, apparent C accumulation rates were controlled more by other factors than by cold climate per se. Although we could not identify any significant environmental factor that drove C accumulation, our data show that recent warming has increased C accumulation in some permafrost peatland sites. However, the synchronous slight decrease of C accumulation in other sites may be an alternative response of these peatlands to warming in the future. This would lead to a decrease in the C sequestration ability of permafrost peatlands overall.Peer reviewe