The Spectrum projection package: improvements in estimating incidence by age and sex, mother-to-child transmission, HIV progression in children and double orphans

BACKGROUND: The Spectrum program is used to estimate key HIV indicators from the trends in incidence and prevalence estimated by the Estimation and Projection Package or the Workbook. These indicators include the number of people living with HIV, new infections, AIDS deaths, AIDS orphans, the number of adults and children needing treatment, the need for prevention of mother-to-child transmission and the impact of antiretroviral treatment on survival. The UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections regularly reviews new data and information needs, and recommends updates to the methodology and assumptions used in Spectrum. METHODS: The latest update to Spectrum was used in the 2009 round of global estimates. This update contains new procedures for estimating: the age and sex distribution of adult incidence, new child infections occurring around delivery or through breastfeeding, the survival of children by timing of infection and the number of double orphans

The TexiSense « Smart Sock » - a device for a daily prevention of pressure ulcers in the diabetic foot

International audienceGoals.– The term « diabetic foot » refers to a set of foot pathologies essentially stemming from the neuropathy and arteriopathy of the lower limb associated with diabetes mellitus. Chronic ischemia weakens the healing potential and favors the development of wounds on a more vulnerable foot. Friction or repeated micro-traumas can lead to an ulceration (which in turn can end up in an amputation) that will remain unnoticed because of the somato-sensory deficiency. The current prevention techniques largely relying on visual inspection of the foot and enhancement of the foot/insole interface are not fully satisfying as the prevalence of plantar ulcers remains very high.Patients and methods.– A device for the prevention of plantar ulcers–called “Smart Sock” is described. It consists of:– a sock made of a 100% textile pressure sensing fabric developed by the TexiSense company;– a microcontroller running a biomechanical model of the soft tissues of the foot of the diabetic person;– a vibrating watch (and eventually a smartphone) used to warn the bearer if a pressure pattern threatens the soft tissues integrity.Results.– Internal overpressures within the soft tissues, especially nearby bony prominences are likely to develop into deep foot ulcerations. The biomechanical model gives an estimation of their magnitude based on the external pressures measured by the sock/sensor. This modeling relies on a faithful representation of the morphology of the diabetic subject. The device sends a vibro-tactile alert in case of occasional overpressure or excessive stress dose accumulated during daytime activities.Discussion.– The continuous use of the device, compatible with daytime activities of the diabetic person, helps compensate for the lack of attention in the prevention of pressure ulcer formation. The TexiSense “Smart Sock” can be designed so that when worn, pressure sensors fall onto sensitive anatomical areas such as the dorsal side of the toes or the posterior side of the heel, which makes it also possible to monitor regions located outside the sole of the foot

Comparison of [18F]-Tracers in Various Experimental Tumor Models by PET Imaging and Identification of an Early Response Biomarker for the Novel Microtubule Stabilizer Patupilone

Purpose: The suitability of [18F]FDG, [18F]FLT, [18F]FET, and [18F]FCH as non-invasive positron emission tomography (PET) biomarkers for monitoring response to chemotherapy was analyzed in various experimental tumor models. Procedures: Tracer uptake into three syngeneic rodent tumor models and ten human xenograft models was evaluated using semiquantitative analysis of small-animal PET data. Murine RIF-1 fibrosarcomas and [18F]FLT were selected to monitor the effects of the novel cytotoxic patupilone. Results: Except [18F]FCH, all tracers provided good tumor visualization. Highest [18F]FDG uptake was identified in syngeneic tumors. Xenograft models, however, showed low [18F]FDG SUVs and were better visualized by [18F]FLT. Monitoring the effects of patupilone on [18F]FLT uptake in RIF-1 tumors revealed a significant decrease of tracer uptake after 24h, which strongly negatively correlated with apoptosis. Conclusion: [18F]FLT PET of experimental tumors is a viable complement to [18F]FDG for preclinical drug development. [18F]FLT may be an excellent biomarker for patupilone-induced apoptosi

Duration, Pattern of Breastfeeding and Postnatal Transmission of HIV: Pooled Analysis of Individual Data from West and South African Cohorts

Both breastfeeding pattern and duration are associated with postnatal HIV acquisition; their relative contribution has not been reliably quantified.Pooled data from 2 cohorts: in urban West Africa where breastfeeding cessation at 4 months was recommended but exclusive breastfeeding was rare (Ditrame Plus, DP); in rural South Africa where high rates of exclusive breastfeeding were achieved, but with longer duration (Vertical Transmission Study, VTS). 18-months HIV postnatal transmission (PT) was estimated by Kaplan-Meier in infants who were HIV negative, and assumed uninfected, at age >1 month. Censoring with (to assess impact of mode of breastfeeding) and without (to assess effect of breastfeeding duration) breastfeeding cessation considered as a competing event. Of 1195 breastfed infants, not HIV-infected perinatally, 38% DP and 83% VTS children were still breastfed at age 6 months. By age 3 months, 66% of VTS children were exclusively breastfed since birth and 55% of DP infants predominantly breastfed (breastmilk+water-based drinks). 18-month PT risk (95%CI) in VTS was double that in DP: 9% (7-11) and 5% (3-8), respectively (p = 0.03). However, once duration of breastfeeding was allowed for in a competing risk analysis assuming that all children would have been breastfed for 18-month, the estimated PT risk was 16% (8-28) in DP and 14% (10-18) in VTS (p = 0.32). 18-months PT risk was 3.9% (2.3-6.5) among infants breastfed for less than 6 months, and 8.7% (6.8-11.0) among children breastfed for more than 6 months; crude hazard ratio (HR): 2.1 (1.2-3.7), p = 0.02; adjusted HR 1.8 (0.9-3.4), p = 0.06. In individual analyses of PT rates for specific breastfeeding durations, risks among children exclusively breastfed were very similar to those in children predominantly breastfed for the same period. Children exposed to solid foods during the first 2 months of life were 2.9 (1.1-8.0) times more likely to be infected postnatally than children never exposed to solids this early (adjusted competing risk analysis, p = 0.04).Breastfeeding duration is a major determinant of postnatal HIV transmission. The PT risk did not differ between exclusively and predominantly breastfed children; the negative effect of mixed breastfeeding with solids on PT were confirmed

Blood ties: ABO is a trans-species polymorphism in primates

The ABO histo-blood group, the critical determinant of transfusion incompatibility, was the first genetic polymorphism discovered in humans. Remarkably, ABO antigens are also polymorphic in many other primates, with the same two amino acid changes responsible for A and B specificity in all species sequenced to date. Whether this recurrence of A and B antigens is the result of an ancient polymorphism maintained across species or due to numerous, more recent instances of convergent evolution has been debated for decades, with a current consensus in support of convergent evolution. We show instead that genetic variation data in humans and gibbons as well as in Old World Monkeys are inconsistent with a model of convergent evolution and support the hypothesis of an ancient, multi-allelic polymorphism of which some alleles are shared by descent among species. These results demonstrate that the ABO polymorphism is a trans-species polymorphism among distantly related species and has remained under balancing selection for tens of millions of years, to date, the only such example in Hominoids and Old World Monkeys outside of the Major Histocompatibility Complex.Comment: 45 pages, 4 Figures, 4 Supplementary Figures, 5 Supplementary Table

Retrieval of surface solar irradiance from satellite imagery using machine learning: pitfalls and perspectives

Knowledge of the spatial and temporal characteristics of solar surface irradiance (SSI) is critical in many domains. While meteorological ground stations can provide accurate measurements of SSI locally, they are sparsely distributed worldwide. SSI estimations derived from satellite imagery are thus crucial to gain a finer understanding of the solar resource. Inferring SSI from satellite images is, however, not straightforward, and it has been the focus of many researchers in the past 30 to 40 years. For long, the emphasis has been on models grounded in physical laws with, in some cases, simple statistical parametrizations. Recently, new satellite SSI retrieval methods have been emerging, which directly infer the SSI from the satellite images using machine learning. Although only a few such works have been published, their practical efficiency has already been questioned. The objective of this paper is to better understand the potential and the pitfalls of this new family of methods. To do so, simple multi-layer-perceptron (MLP) models are constructed with different training datasets of satellite-based radiance measurements from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) with collocated SSI ground measurements from Météo-France. The performance of the models is evaluated on a test dataset independent from the training set in both space and time and compared to that of a state-of-the-art physical retrieval model from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). We found that the data-driven model's performance is very dependent on the training set. Provided the training set is sufficiently large and similar enough to the test set, even a simple MLP has a root mean square error (RMSE) that is 19 % lower than CAMS and outperforms the physical retrieval model at 96 % of the test stations. On the other hand, in certain configurations, the data-driven model can dramatically underperform even in stations located close to the training set: when geographical separation was enforced between the training and test set, the MLP-based model exhibited an RMSE that was 50 % to 100 % higher than that of CAMS in several locations.</p

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Analysis of Chimpanzee History Based on Genome Sequence Alignments

Population geneticists often study small numbers of carefully chosen loci, but it has become possible to obtain orders of magnitude for more data from overlaps of genome sequences. Here, we generate tens of millions of base pairs of multiple sequence alignments from combinations of three western chimpanzees, three central chimpanzees, an eastern chimpanzee, a bonobo, a human, an orangutan, and a macaque. Analysis provides a more precise understanding of demographic history than was previously available. We show that bonobos and common chimpanzees were separated ∼1,290,000 years ago, western and other common chimpanzees ∼510,000 years ago, and eastern and central chimpanzees at least 50,000 years ago. We infer that the central chimpanzee population size increased by at least a factor of 4 since its separation from western chimpanzees, while the western chimpanzee effective population size decreased. Surprisingly, in about one percent of the genome, the genetic relationships between humans, chimpanzees, and bonobos appear to be different from the species relationships. We used PCR-based resequencing to confirm 11 regions where chimpanzees and bonobos are not most closely related. Study of such loci should provide information about the period of time 5–7 million years ago when the ancestors of humans separated from those of the chimpanzees

Cohort Profile: Mamanengane or the Africa Centre Vertical Transmission Study

How did the study come about? From the mid-1990s, the success of antiretroviral prophylaxis to reduce HIV RNA viral load in plasma and avoidance of breastfeeding provided the real possibility that mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV-1 could be markedly reduced, 1 with an implicit understanding that these measures could be effectively applied to all HIV-infected women in developing countries. 2,3 The latter constitute the overwhelming majority of HIV-positive pregnancies resulting in approximately half a million new infant infections annually. 4 However, the inappropriate use of formula milks amongst impoverished populations resulted in major adverse effects; without the nutritiona