Evaluation of vaccination strategies for SIR epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure

This paper is concerned with the analysis of vaccination strategies in a stochastic SIR (susceptible → infected → removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals with a random network of social contacts that is also partitioned into households. Under various vaccine action models, we consider both household-based vaccination schemes, in which the way in which individuals are chosen for vaccination depends on the size of the households in which they reside, and acquaintance vaccination, which targets individuals of high degree in the social network. For both types of vaccination scheme, assuming a large population with few initial infectives, we derive a threshold parameter which determines whether or not a large outbreak can occur and also the probability and fraction of the population infected by such an outbreak. The performance of these schemes is studied numerically, focusing on the influence of the household size distribution and the degree distribution of the social network. We find that acquaintance vaccination can significantly outperform the best household-based scheme if the degree distribution of the social network is heavy-tailed. For household-based schemes, when the vaccine coverage is insufficient to prevent a major outbreak and the vaccine is imperfect, we find situations in which both the probability and size of a major outbreak under the scheme which minimises the threshold parameter are \emph{larger} than in the scheme which maximises the threshold parameter

Can Antiviral Drugs Contain Pandemic Influenza Transmission?

Antiviral drugs dispensed during the 2009 influenza pandemic generally failed to contain transmission. This poses the question of whether preparedness for a future pandemic should include plans to use antiviral drugs to mitigate transmission

Epidemiological reference ranges for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and apolipoprotein B for identification of increased risk of ischaemic heart disease

Although there is widespread acceptance that total cholesterol (TC) value reference ranges should be based on epidemiological rather than statistical considerations, the epidemiological action limits for Iow-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) are still incomplete and only statistical reference ranges for apolipoprotein B (Apo-B) levels are available. The combined use of epidemiological reference ranges for TC and incomplete or statistical reference ranges for LDL-C and Apo-B is illogical, since these parameters may fall into discordant risk categories that will hamper and complicate the management of hypercholesterolaemia. Based on a study of Iipograms obtained from ± 3 000 inhabitants of two industrialised Transvaal towns, the agerelated epidemiological reference ranges for LDL-C and ApoB were established. A comparison with published observational studies of other populations, in which comparable lipid, lipoprotein and apolipoprotein methodologies were used, reflected the severity of these lipid-related abnormalities in white South Africans, especially after the age of 30 years. In addition, the serum TC values found in this survey were not significantly different from those obtained 10 years ago

Estimating the within-household infection rate in emerging SIR epidemics among a community of households

This paper is concerned with estimation of the within household infection rate λL for a susceptible → infective → recovered epidemic among a population of households, from observation of the early, exponentially growing phase of an epidemic. Specifically, it is assumed that an estimate of the exponential growth rate is available from general data on an emerging epidemic and more-detailed, household-level data are available in a sample of households. Estimates of λL obtained using the final size distribution of single-household epidemics are usually biased owing to the emerging nature of the epidemic. A new method, which accounts correctly for the emerging nature of the epidemic, is developed by exploiting the asymptotic theory of supercritical branching processes and proved to yield a strongly consistent estimator of λL as the population and sampled households both tend to infinity in an appropriate fashion. The theory is illustrated by simulations which demonstrate that the new method is feasible for finite populations and numerical studies are used to explore how changes to the parameters governing the spread of an epidemic affect the bias of estimates based on single-household final size distributions

The Waiting Time for Inter-Country Spread of Pandemic Influenza

BACKGROUND: The time delay between the start of an influenza pandemic and its subsequent initiation in other countries is highly relevant to preparedness planning. We quantify the distribution of this random time in terms of the separate components of this delay, and assess how the delay may be extended by non-pharmaceutical interventions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The model constructed for this time delay accounts for: (i) epidemic growth in the source region, (ii) the delay until an infected individual from the source region seeks to travel to an at-risk country, (iii) the chance that infected travelers are detected by screening at exit and entry borders, (iv) the possibility of in-flight transmission, (v) the chance that an infected arrival might not initiate an epidemic, and (vi) the delay until infection in the at-risk country gathers momentum. Efforts that reduce the disease reproduction number in the source region below two and severe travel restrictions are most effective for delaying a local epidemic, and under favourable circumstances, could add several months to the delay. On the other hand, the model predicts that border screening for symptomatic infection, wearing a protective mask during travel, promoting early presentation of cases arising among arriving passengers and moderate reduction in travel volumes increase the delay only by a matter of days or weeks. Elevated in-flight transmission reduces the delay only minimally. CONCLUSIONS: The delay until an epidemic of pandemic strain influenza is imported into an at-risk country is largely determined by the course of the epidemic in the source region and the number of travelers attempting to enter the at-risk country, and is little affected by non-pharmaceutical interventions targeting these travelers. Short of preventing international travel altogether, eradicating a nascent pandemic in the source region appears to be the only reliable method of preventing country-to-country spread of a pandemic strain of influenza

CFH, C3 and ARMS2 Are Significant Risk Loci for Susceptibility but Not for Disease Progression of Geographic Atrophy Due to AMD

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a prevalent cause of blindness in Western societies. Variants in the genes encoding complement factor H (CFH), complement component 3 (C3) and age-related maculopathy susceptibility 2 (ARMS2) have repeatedly been shown to confer significant risks for AMD; however, their role in disease progression and thus their potential relevance for interventional therapeutic approaches remains unknown. Here, we analyzed association between variants in CFH, C3 and ARMS2 and disease progression of geographic atrophy (GA) due to AMD. A quantitative phenotype of disease progression was computed based on longitudinal observations by fundus autofluorescence imaging. In a subset of 99 cases with pure bilateral GA, variants in CFH (Y402H), C3 (R102G), and ARMS2 (A69S) are associated with disease (P = 1.6x10(-9), 3.2x10(-3), and P = 2.6x10(-12), respectively) when compared to 612 unrelated healthy control individuals. In cases, median progression rate of GA over a mean follow-up period of 3.0 years was 1.61 mm(2)/year with high concordance between fellow eyes. No association between the progression rate and any of the genetic risk variants at the three loci was observed (P>0.13). This study confirms that variants at CFH, C3, and ARMS2 confer significant risks for GA due to AMD. In contrast, our data indicate no association of these variants with disease progression which may have important implications for future treatment strategies. Other, as yet unknown susceptibilities may influence disease progression

An exploratory randomised controlled trial of a premises-level intervention to reduce alcohol-related harm including violence in the United Kingdom

<b>Background</b><p></p> To assess the feasibility of a randomised controlled trial of a licensed premises intervention to reduce severe intoxication and disorder; to establish effect sizes and identify appropriate approaches to the development and maintenance of a rigorous research design and intervention implementation.<p></p> <b>Methods</b><p></p> An exploratory two-armed parallel randomised controlled trial with a nested process evaluation. An audit of risk factors and a tailored action plan for high risk premises, with three month follow up audit and feedback. Thirty-two premises that had experienced at least one assault in the year prior to the intervention were recruited, match paired and randomly allocated to control or intervention group. Police violence data and data from a street survey of study premises’ customers, including measures of breath alcohol concentration and surveyor rated customer intoxication, were used to assess effect sizes for a future definitive trial. A nested process evaluation explored implementation barriers and the fidelity of the intervention with key stakeholders and senior staff in intervention premises using semi-structured interviews.<p></p> <b>Results</b><p></p> The process evaluation indicated implementation barriers and low fidelity, with a reluctance to implement the intervention and to submit to a formal risk audit. Power calculations suggest the intervention effect on violence and subjective intoxication would be raised to significance with a study size of 517 premises.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b><p></p> It is methodologically feasible to conduct randomised controlled trials where licensed premises are the unit of allocation. However, lack of enthusiasm in senior premises staff indicates the need for intervention enforcement, rather than voluntary agreements, and on-going strategies to promote sustainability

Acoustic cardiac triggering: a practical solution for synchronization and gating of cardiovascular magnetic resonance at 7 Tesla

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To demonstrate the applicability of acoustic cardiac triggering (ACT) for imaging of the heart at ultrahigh magnetic fields (7.0 T) by comparing phonocardiogram, conventional vector electrocardiogram (ECG) and traditional pulse oximetry (POX) triggered 2D CINE acquisitions together with (i) a qualitative image quality analysis, (ii) an assessment of the left ventricular function parameter and (iii) an examination of trigger reliability and trigger detection variance derived from the signal waveforms.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>ECG was susceptible to severe distortions at 7.0 T. POX and ACT provided waveforms free of interferences from electromagnetic fields or from magneto-hydrodynamic effects. Frequent R-wave mis-registration occurred in ECG-triggered acquisitions with a failure rate of up to 30% resulting in cardiac motion induced artifacts. ACT and POX triggering produced images free of cardiac motion artefacts. ECG showed a severe jitter in the R-wave detection. POX also showed a trigger jitter of approximately Δt = 72 ms which is equivalent to two cardiac phases. ACT showed a jitter of approximately Δt = 5 ms only. ECG waveforms revealed a standard deviation for the cardiac trigger offset larger than that observed for ACT or POX waveforms.</p> <p>Image quality assessment showed that ACT substantially improved image quality as compared to ECG (image quality score at end-diastole: ECG = 1.7 ± 0.5, ACT = 2.4 ± 0.5, p = 0.04) while the comparison between ECG vs. POX gated acquisitions showed no significant differences in image quality (image quality score: ECG = 1.7 ± 0.5, POX = 2.0 ± 0.5, p = 0.34).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The applicability of acoustic triggering for cardiac CINE imaging at 7.0 T was demonstrated. ACT's trigger reliability and fidelity are superior to that of ECG and POX. ACT promises to be beneficial for cardiovascular magnetic resonance at ultra-high field strengths including 7.0 T.</p

Optimal functional outcome measures for assessing treatment for Dupuytren's disease: A systematic review and recommendations for future practice

This article is available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. Copyright © 2013 Ball et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.Background: Dupuytren's disease of the hand is a common condition affecting the palmar fascia, resulting in progressive flexion deformities of the digits and hence limitation of hand function. The optimal treatment remains unclear as outcomes studies have used a variety of measures for assessment. Methods: A literature search was performed for all publications describing surgical treatment, percutaneous needle aponeurotomy or collagenase injection for primary or recurrent Dupuytren’s disease where outcomes had been monitored using functional measures. Results: Ninety-one studies met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-two studies reported outcomes using patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) ranging from validated questionnaires to self-reported measures for return to work and self-rated disability. The Disability of Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) score was the most utilised patient-reported function measure (n=11). Patient satisfaction was reported by eighteen studies but no single method was used consistently. Range of movement was the most frequent physical measure and was reported in all 91 studies. However, the methods of measurement and reporting varied, with seventeen different techniques being used. Other physical measures included grip and pinch strength and sensibility, again with variations in measurement protocols. The mean follow-up time ranged from 2 weeks to 17 years. Conclusions: There is little consistency in the reporting of outcomes for interventions in patients with Dupuytren’s disease, making it impossible to compare the efficacy of different treatment modalities. Although there are limitations to the existing generic patient reported outcomes measures, a combination of these together with a disease-specific questionnaire, and physical measures of active and passive individual joint Range of movement (ROM), grip and sensibility using standardised protocols should be used for future outcomes studies. As Dupuytren’s disease tends to recur following treatment as well as extend to involve other areas of the hand, follow-up times should be standardised and designed to capture both short and long term outcomes

Evaluating the Combined Effectiveness of Influenza Control Strategies and Human Preventive Behavior

Control strategies enforced by health agencies are a major type of practice to contain influenza outbreaks. Another type of practice is the voluntary preventive behavior of individuals, such as receiving vaccination, taking antiviral drugs, and wearing face masks. These two types of practices take effects concurrently in influenza containment, but little attention has been paid to their combined effectiveness. This article estimates this combined effectiveness using established simulation models in the urbanized area of Buffalo, NY, USA. Three control strategies are investigated, including: Targeted Antiviral Prophylaxis (TAP), workplace/school closure, community travel restriction, as well as the combination of the three. All control strategies are simulated with and without regard to individual preventive behavior, and the resulting effectiveness are compared. The simulation outcomes suggest that weaker control strategies could suffice to contain influenza epidemics, because individuals voluntarily adopt preventive behavior, rendering these weaker strategies more effective than would otherwise have been expected. The preventive behavior of individuals could save medical resources for control strategies and avoid unnecessary socio-economic interruptions. This research adds a human behavioral dimension into the simulation of control strategies and offers new insights into disease containment. Health policy makers are recommended to review current control strategies and comprehend preventive behavior patterns of local populations before making decisions on influenza containment