Home lands: island and archipelagic states’ policymaking for human mobility in the context of climate change

Climate change related migration and displacement are already a reality for many people around the world. A growing body of research suggests that the number of people affected will rise over the coming decades, which will create additional risks for the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. This trend and the related issues are an increasing topic of discussion at international policy fora. The Task Force on Displacement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Platform on Disaster Displacement (PDD) are addressing these policy challenges. The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM) is calling for the development of “coherent approaches to address the challenges of migration movements in the context of sudden-onset and slow-onset natural disasters”. This report reflects what is currently known about the impacts of climate change on people living in island nations and highlights the necessity to develop policies that address human mobility dynamics resulting from adaptation to these changes. By looking at island and archipelagic states as diverse as Kiribati, Saint Lucia and the Philippines, the various political frameworks within which they operate and the different response mechanisms they have adopted can be examined. First-hand interviews with experts from across the regions show the multiplicity of challenges governments are facing: from difficulties in distribution of relief goods to land scarcity, aid dependency, insufficient data and personnel capacities. Yet the key interviewees underline ways in which governments can capitalise on the strengths inherent to island and coastal communities to further build resilience using existing and innovative practices

Tsunami awareness and preparedness in Aotearoa New Zealand:The evolution of community understanding

After catastrophic events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami there is a clear need for vulnerable countries like Aotearoa New Zealand to get prepared for tsunami. In the last ten years, the New Zealand government initiated major efforts to raise awareness of tsunami risk among coastal residents. This study explores tsunami awareness, preparedness, and evacuation intentions among residents of the East Coast of the North Island in a 2015 survey. The ten chosen locations also participated in a tsunami survey in 2003, with results demonstrating that tsunami awareness rose in the twelve years between the surveys. The 2015 survey also included questions on preparedness and intended action. Even though coastal residents know they live in a tsunami prone area, preparedness is relatively low and high expectations of a formal warning remain, even for a local source tsunami scenario. Furthermore, survey respondents had unrealistic ideas of evacuation procedures. When asked about their evacuation intentions, respondents intended to undertake a number of different actions before evacuating their homes, which could cause significant delays in the evacuation process. Most respondents were also reluctant to evacuate on foot and prefer using their vehicles instead, which could create dangerous traffic congestion. These surveyed intentions are consistent with a study of actual evacuation behaviours in the subsequent 2016 Kaikōura earthquake and tsunami, providing validation for the survey indicators. This paper identifies the procedures least understood by the public and offers some solutions to improve tsunami preparedness.</p

The Public\u27s Perception of an Earthquake Early Warning System: A Study on Factors Influencing Continuance Intention

This paper investigates the perceptions of the New Zealand public towards the Android Earthquake Alert (AEA) system, a public-facing earthquake early warning system. Specifically, it examines the public’s continuance intention towards the AEA system and the influencing factors of satisfaction, confirmation, perceived usefulness, and perceived trust. To gather insights into the public’s perceptions regarding the AEA system, this study distributed online surveys following two separate earthquake alert events on 12 October and 22 October 2021. A total of 524 and 671 participants responded to the two events’ surveys, providing valuable data for analysis and exploration. Structural Equation Modelling of the two datasets revealed that the continuance model fit the data to some extent, especially on the significance of perceived usefulness and perceived trust to continuance intention. However, the results also showed varying results for satisfaction’s relationship with perceived trust and continuance intention. These findings underscore the need for further investigation into the role of satisfaction and perceived trust, considering the evolving nature of EEW technologies and users’ familiarity over time. The descriptive and inferential analysis results raised concerns about potential confusion around the alerts’ source and highlighted the question of responsibility and liability for EEW. Overall, this study contributes to understanding continuance intention in the EEW context and provides insights into the public’s perception of the AEA system in New Zealand. The findings have implications more broadly for EEW systems’ design, implementation, and communication strategies

Influence of hadronic interaction models and the cosmic ray spectrum on the high energy atmospheric muon and neutrino flux

The recent observations of muon charge ratio up to about 10 TeV and of atmospheric neutrinos up to energies of about 400 TeV has triggered a renewed interest into the high-energy interaction models and cosmic ray primary composition. A reviewed calculation of lepton spectra produced in cosmic-ray induced extensive air showers is carried out with a primary cosmic-ray spectrum that fits the latest direct measurements below the knee. In order to achieve this, we used a full Monte Carlo method to derive the inclusive differential spectra (yields) of muons, muon neutrinos and electron neutrinos at the surface for energies between 80 GeV and hundreds of PeV. The air shower simulator {\sc corsika} 6.990 was used for showering and propagation of the secondary particles through the atmosphere, employing the established high-energy hadronic interaction models {\sc sibyll} 2.1, {\sc qgsjet-01} and {\sc qgsjet-ii 03}. We show that the performance of the interaction models allows makes it possible to predict the spectra within experimental uncertainties, while {\sc sibyll} generally yields a higher flux at the surface than the qgsjet models. The calculation of the flavor and charge ratios has lead to inconsistent results, mainly influenced by the different representations of the K/$\pi$ ratio within the models. Furthermore, we could quantify systematic uncertainties of atmospheric muon- and neutrino fluxes, associated to the models of the primary cosmic-ray spectrum and the interaction models. For most recent parametrizations of the cosmic-ray primary spectrum, atmospheric muons can be determined with an uncertainty smaller than $^{+15}_{-13}$% of the average flux. Uncertainties of the muon- and electron neutrino fluxes can be calculated within an average error of $^{+32}_{-22}$% and $^{+25}_{-19}$%, respectively.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, version 2 includes analytic approximatio

Design and validation of a German version of the GSRS-IBS - an analysis of its psychometric quality and factorial structure

Background: Currently, a suitable questionnaire in German language is not available to monitor the progression and evaluate the severity of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Therefore, this study aimed to translate the Gastrointestinal Symptom Rating Scale for Irritable Bowel Syndrome (GSRS-IBS) into German and to evaluate its psychometric qualities and factorial structure. Methods: This study is based on a total sample of 372 participants [62.6% female, mean age = 41 years (SD = 17 years)]. 17.5% of the participants had a diagnosis of IBS, 19.9% were receiving treatment for chronic inflammatory bowel disease, 12.1% of the participants were recruited from a psychosomatic clinic, and 50.5% belonged to a control group. All participants completed the German version of GSRS-IBS (called Reizdarm-Fragebogen, RDF), as well as the Gießen Subjective Complaints List (GBB-24) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale - German version (HADS-D). Results: The internal consistency of the RDF total scale was at least satisfactory in all subsamples (Cronbach’s Alpha between .77 and .92), and for all subscales (Cronbach’s Alpha between .79 and .91). The item difficulties (between .25 and .73) and the item-total correlations (between .48 and .83) were equally satisfactory. Principal axis analysis revealed a four-factorial structure of the RDF items, which mainly resembled the structure of the English original. Convergent validity was established based on substantial and significant correlations with the stomach-complaint scale of the GBB-24 (r = .71; p &lt; .01) and the anxiety (r = .42; p &lt; .01) and depression scales (r = .43; p &lt; .01) of the HADS-D. Conclusion: The German version of the GSRS-IBS RDF proves to be an effective, reliable, and valid questionnaire for the assessment of symptom severity in IBS, which can be used in clinical practice as well as in clinical studies

Internal gamma gamma-opacity in Active Galactic Nuclei and the consequences for the TeV observations of M87 and Cen A

Low Luminosity Active Galactic Nuclei (LLAGNs) possess the characteristic features of more luminous Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) but exhibit a much lower nuclear Halpha luminosity than their more luminous counterparts. M87 (NGC 4486) and Centaurus A (NGC 5128, CenA) are well-studied nearby LLAGNs. As an additional feature they show gamma-radiation up to TeV (10^{12}eV) energies, but the origin of this radiation is not resolved. The coincident observation of a radio and TeV flare in M87 suggests that the TeV radiation is produced within around 50-100 gravitational radii of the central supermassive black hole, depending on the assumed value of the mass of the black hole. Strong radiation fields can be produced in the central region of an (LL)AGN, e.g., by the accretion flow around the black hole, the jet plasma, or stars closely orbiting the black hole. These radiation fields can lead to the absorption of emitted TeV photons, and in fact high optical depths of such fields can make TeV detection from inner regions impossible. In this paper we consider the accretion flow around the black hole as the most prominent source for such a radiation field and we accordingly calculate the probability for absorption of TeV photons produced near the black holes in M87 and CenA assuming a low luminosity Shakura-Sunyaev Disk (SSD). We find that the results are very different for between the two LLAGNs. While the inner region of M87 is transparent for TeV radiation up to 15TeV, the optical depth in CenA is >> 1, leading to an absorption of TeV photons that might be produced near the central black hole. These results imply either that the TeV gamma production sites and processes are different for both sources, or that LLAGN black holes do not accrete (at least only) in form of a low luminosity SSD.Comment: accepted for publication in Ap

Generalised Geometry for M-Theory

Generalised geometry studies structures on a d-dimensional manifold with a metric and 2-form gauge field on which there is a natural action of the group SO(d,d). This is generalised to d-dimensional manifolds with a metric and 3-form gauge field on which there is a natural action of the group $E_{d}$. This provides a framework for the discussion of M-theory solutions with flux. A different generalisation is to d-dimensional manifolds with a metric, 2-form gauge field and a set of p-forms for $p$ either odd or even on which there is a natural action of the group $E_{d+1}$. This is useful for type IIA or IIB string solutions with flux. Further generalisations give extended tangent bundles and extended spin bundles relevant for non-geometric backgrounds. Special structures that arise for supersymmetric backgrounds are discussed.Comment: 31 page

Twelve-Dimensional Aspects of Four-Dimensional N=1 Type I Vacua

Four-dimensional supergravity theories are reinterpreted in a 12-dimensional F-theory framework. The O(8) symmetry of N=8 supergravity is related to a reduction of F-theory on T_8, with the seventy scalars formally associated, by O(8) triality, to a fully compactified four-form A_4. For the N=1 type I model recently obtained from the type IIB string on the Z orbifold, we identify the K\"ahler manifold of the untwisted scalars in the unoriented closed sector with the generalized Siegel upper-half plane Sp(8,R)/(SU(4) \times U(1)). The SU(4) factor reflects the holonomy group of Calabi-Yau fourfolds.Comment: 12 pages, LaTe

Cyclic 5-membered disulfides are not selective substrates of thioredoxin reductase, but are opened nonspecifically

The cyclic five-membered disulfide 1,2-dithiolane has been widely used in chemical biology and in redox probes. Contradictory reports have described it either as nonspecifically reduced in cells, or else as a highly specific substrate for thioredoxin reductase (TrxR). Here we show that 1,2-dithiolane probes, such as “TRFS” probes, are nonspecifically reduced by thiol reductants and redox-active proteins, and their cellular performance is barely affected by TrxR inhibition or knockout. Therefore, results of cellular imaging or inhibitor screening using 1,2-dithiolanes should not be interpreted as reflecting TrxR activity, and previous studies may need re-evaluation. To understand 1,2-dithiolanes’ complex behaviour, probe localisation, environment-dependent fluorescence, reduction-independent ring-opening polymerisation, and thiol-dependent cellular uptake must all be considered; particular caution is needed when co-applying thiophilic inhibitors. We present a general approach controlling against assay misinterpretation with reducible probes, to ensure future TrxR-targeted designs are robustly evaluated for selectivity, and to better orient future research