Bayesian change-point analyses in ecology

• Ecological and biological processes can change from one state to another once a threshold has been crossed in space or time. Threshold responses to incremental changes in underlying variables can characterize diverse processes from climate change to the desertification of arid lands from overgrazing. • Simultaneously estimating the location of thresholds and associated ecological parameters can be difficult: ecological data are often \u27noisy\u27, which can make the identification of the locations of ecological thresholds challenging. • We illustrate this problem using two ecological examples and apply a class of statistical models well-suited to addressing this problem. We first consider the case of estimating allometric relationships between tree diameter and height when the trees have distinctly different growth modes across life-history stages. We next estimate the effects of canopy gaps and dense understory vegetation on tree recruitment in transects that transverse both canopy and gap conditions. • The Bayesian change-point models that we present estimate both threshold locations and the slope or level of ecological quantities of interest, while incorporating uncertainty in the change-point location into these estimates. This class of models is suitable for problems with multiple thresholds and can account for spatial or temporal autocorrelation. © The Authors (2007)

Decoupling natural and anthropogenic fire regimes: A case study in Everglades National Park, Florida

Anthropogenic fire regimes obscure natural fire regimes, reducing the ability to manage fire-frequented habitats ecologically. To address this problem, we attempted to decouple natural and anthropogenic fire regimes by comparing them to seasonal climatic patterns and landscape characteristics in Everglades National Park (1948-1999). Of the total area burned by lightning fires, 57% resulted from ignitions seven days within onset of the wet season, 11% from ignitions starting 7-21 days before onset, and 36% from ignitions \u3e 7 days after onset. In contrast, of the total area burned by incendiary fires, 89% resulted from ignitions \u3e 7 days before onset, and 40% resulted from ignitions \u3e 35 days before onset. Moreover, ∼100% of the total area burned by prescribed fires resulted from ignitions \u3e 7 days after onset. Lightning fires occurred most frequently in wet seasonal savanna that had limited accessibility to humans; incendiary fires were most frequent in wet seasonal savanna that had ready accessibility to humans. In addition, 35% of the total area burned by incendiary fires in areas of limited accessibility occurred when incendiary fires spread from readily accessible areas. We propose that, because incendiary fires occurred at the end of the dry season, they burned drier fuels and burned more intensely than lightning fires, which generally occurred following the first rains of the wet season. Incendiary fires thus should be more likely to burn lower elevation areas that normally hinder fire spread. Finally, by occurring later in the wet season, prescribed fires may have burned patchily and insufficiently intensely to achieve restoration goals. Decoupling anthropogenic and natural fire regimes using seasonal climate patterns and landscape characteristics leads us to propose strategies to guide fire management in the park

Placenta-Like Structure of the Aphid Endoparasitic Wasp Aphidius ervi: A Strategy of Optimal Resources Acquisition

Aphidius ervi (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) is an entomophagous parasitoid known to be an effective parasitoid of several aphid species of economic importance. A reduction of its production cost during mass rearing for inundative release is needed to improve its use in biological control of pests. In these contexts, a careful analysis of its entire development phases within its host is needed. This paper shows that this parasitoid has some characteristics in its embryological development rather complex and different from most other reported insects, which can be phylogenetically very close. First, its yolkless egg allows a high fecundity of the female but force them to hatch from the egg shell rapidly to the host hemocoel. An early cellularisation allowing a rapid differentiation of a serosa membrane seems to confirm this hypothesis. The serosa wraps the developing embryo until the first instar larva stage and invades the host tissues by microvilli projections and form a placenta like structure able to divert host resources and allowing nutrition and respiration of embryo. Such interspecific invasion, at the cellular level, recalls mammal's trophoblasts that anchors maternal uterine wall and underlines the high adaptation of A. ervi to develop in the host body

Imperfection works: Survival, transmission and persistence in the system of Heliothis virescens ascovirus 3h (HvAV-3h), Microplitis similis and Spodoptera exigua

Ascoviruses are insect-specific large DNA viruses that mainly infect noctuid larvae, and are transmitted by parasitoids in the fields. Heliothis virescens ascovirus 3h (HvAV-3h) has been recently isolated from Spodoptera exigua, without parasitoid vector identified previously. Here we report that Microplitis similis, a solitary endoparasitoid wasp, could transmit HvAV-3h between S. exigua larvae in the laboratory. When the female parasitoid wasp acquired the virus and served as a vector, the period of virion viability on the ovipositor was 4.1 ± 1.4 days. Infected host larvae were still acceptable for egg laying by parasitoids, and the parasitoids thereafter transmitted virus to healthy hosts. Virus acquisition occurred only from donor hosts between 3 and 9 days post infection. The peak of virus acquisition (80.9 ± 6.3%) was found when M. similis wasps oviposited in larvae that had been inoculated with the virus 7 days previously. When virus infection of the host took place during the life cycle of the parasitoid wasp, it caused 1- to 4-day-old immature parasitoids death in the host, whilst a small proportion of 5- to 6-day-old and the majority of 7-day-old parasitoids larvae survived from the virus-infected hosts. Viral contamination did not reduce the life span or fecundity of female M. similis

High-Dimensional Coexistence of Temperate Tree Species: Functional Traits, Demographic Rates, Life-History Stages, and Their Physical Context

Theoretical models indicate that trade-offs between growth and survival strategies of tree species can lead to coexistence across life history stages (ontogeny) and physical conditions experienced by individuals. There exist predicted physiological mechanisms regulating these trade-offs, such as an investment in leaf characters that may increase survival in stressful environments at the expense of investment in bole or root growth. Confirming these mechanisms, however, requires that potential environmental, ontogenetic, and trait influences are analyzed together. Here, we infer growth and mortality of tree species given size, site, and light characteristics from forest inventory data from Wisconsin to test hypotheses about growth-survival trade-offs given species functional trait values under different ontogenetic and environmental states. A series of regression analyses including traits and rates their interactions with environmental and ontogenetic stages supported the relationships between traits and vital rates expected from the expectations from tree physiology. A combined model including interactions between all variables indicated that relationships between demographic rates and functional traits supports growth-survival trade-offs and their differences across species in high-dimensional niche space. The combined model explained 65% of the variation in tree growth and supports a concept of community coexistence similar to Hutchinson's n-dimensional hypervolume and not a low-dimensional niche model or neutral model

Small Worlds and Semantic Network Growth in Typical and Late Talkers

Network analysis has demonstrated that systems ranging from social networks to electric power grids often involve a small world structure-with local clustering but global ac cess. Critically, small world structure has also been shown to characterize adult human semantic networks. Moreover, the connectivity pattern of these mature networks is consistent with lexical growth processes in which children add new words to their vocabulary based on the structure of the language-learning environment. However, thus far, there is no direct evidence that a child's individual semantic network structure is associated with their early language learning. Here we show that, while typically developing children's early networks show small world structure as early as 15 months and with as few as 55 words, children with language delay (late talkers) have this structure to a smaller degree. This implicates a maladaptive bias in word acquisition for late talkers, potentially indicating a preference for “oddball” words. The findings provide the first evidence of a link between small-world connectivity and lexical development in individual children

Evaluating the spatial uncertainty of future land abandonment in a mountain valley (Vicdessos, Pyrenees-France) : insights form model parameterization and experiments

International audienceEuropean mountains are particularly sensitive to climatic disruptions and land use changes. The latter leads to high rates of natural reforestation over the last 50 years. Faced with the challenge of predicting possible impacts on ecosystem services, LUCC models offer new opportunities for land managers to adapt or mitigate their strategies. Assessing the spatial uncertainty of future LUCC is crucial for the defintion of sustainable land use strategies. However, the sources of uncertainty may differ, including the input parameters, the model itself, and the wide range of possible futures. The aim of this paper is to propose a method to assess the probability of occurrence of future LUCC that combines the inherent uncertainty of model parameterization and the ensemble uncertainty of the future based scenarios. For this purpose, we used the Land Change Modeler tool to simulate future LUCC on a study site located in the Pyrenees Mountains (France) and 2 scenarios illustratins 2 land use strategies. The model was parameterized with the same driving factors used for its calibration. The defintion of static vs. dynamic and quantitative vs. qualitative (discretized) driving factors, and their combination resulted in 4 parameterizations. The combination of model outcomes produced maps of spatial uncertainty of future LUCC. This work involves literature to future-based LUCC studies. It goes beyond the uncertainty of simulation models by integrating the unceertainty of the future to provide maps to help decision makers and land managers

Venom Proteins of the Parasitoid Wasp Nasonia vitripennis: Recent Discovery of an Untapped Pharmacopee

Adult females of Nasonia vitripennis inject a venomous mixture into its host flies prior to oviposition. Recently, the entire genome of this ectoparasitoid wasp was sequenced, enabling the identification of 79 venom proteins. The next challenge will be to unravel their specific functions, but based on homolog studies, some predictions already can be made. Parasitization has an enormous impact on hosts physiology of which five major effects are discussed in this review: the impact on immune responses, induction of developmental arrest, increases in lipid levels, apoptosis and nutrient releases. The value of deciphering this venom is also discussed

Evidence from Individual Inference for High-Dimensional Coexistence: Long-Term Experiments on Recruitment Response

Background: For competing species to coexist, individuals must compete more with others of the same species than with those of other species. Ecologists search for tradeoffs in how species might partition the environment. The negative correlations among competing species that would be indicative of tradeoffs are rarely observed. A recent analysis showed that evidence for partitioning the environment is available when responses are disaggregated to the individual scale, in terms of the covariance structure of responses to environmental variation. That study did not relate that variation to the variables to which individuals were responding. To understand how this pattern of variation is related to niche variables, we analyzed responses to canopy gaps, long viewed as a key variable responsible for species coexistence. Methodology/Principal Findings: A longitudinal intervention analysis of individual responses to experimental canopy gaps with 12 yr of pre-treatment and 8 yr post-treatment responses showed that species-level responses are positively correlated – species that grow fast on average in the understory also grow fast on average in response to gap formation. In other words, there is no tradeoff. However, the joint distribution of individual responses to understory and gap showed a negative correlation – species having individuals that respond most to gaps when previously growing slowly also have individuals that respond least to gaps when previously growing rapidly (e.g., Morus rubra), and vice versa (e.g., Quercus prinus). Conclusions/Significance: Because competition occurs at the individual scale, not the species scale, aggregated speciesleve