The χeff−z\chi_\mathrm{eff}-z correlation of field binary black hole mergers and how 3G gravitational-wave detectors can constrain it

Understanding the origin of merging binary black holes is currently one of the most pressing quests in astrophysics. We show that if isolated binary evolution dominates the formation mechanism of merging binary black holes, one should expect a correlation between the effective spin parameter, $\chi_\mathrm{eff}$, and the redshift of the merger, $z$, of binary black holes. This correlation comes from tidal spin-up systems preferentially forming and merging at higher redshifts due to the combination of weaker orbital expansion from low metallicity stars given their reduced wind mass loss rate, delayed expansion and have smaller maximal radii during the supergiant phase compared to stars at higher metallicity. As a result, these tightly bound systems merge with short inspiral times. Given our fiducial model of isolated binary evolution, we show that the origin of a $\chi_\mathrm{eff}-z$ correlation in the detectable LIGO--Virgo binary black hole population is different from the intrinsic population, which will become accessible only in the future by third-generation gravitational-wave detectors such as Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer. Finally, we compare our model predictions with population predictions based on the current catalog of binary black hole mergers and find that current data favor a positive correlation of $\chi_\mathrm{eff}-z$ as predicted by our model of isolated binary evolution.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures, submitted to A&

One Channel to Rule Them All? Constraining the Origins of Binary Black Holes using Multiple Formation Pathways

The second LIGO-Virgo catalog of gravitational wave transients has more than quadrupled the observational sample of binary black holes. We analyze this catalog using a suite of five state-of-the-art binary black hole population models covering a range of isolated and dynamical formation channels and infer branching fractions between channels as well as constraints on uncertain physical processes that impact the observational properties of mergers. Given our set of formation models, we find significant differences between the branching fractions of the underlying and detectable populations, and that the diversity of detections suggests that multiple formation channels are at play. A mixture of channels is strongly preferred over any single channel dominating the detected population: an individual channel does not contribute to more than $\simeq 70\%$ of the observational sample of binary black holes. We calculate the preference between the natal spin assumptions and common envelope efficiencies in our models, favoring natal spins of isolated black holes of $\lesssim 0.1$, and marginally preferring common envelope efficiencies of $\gtrsim 2.0$ while strongly disfavoring highly inefficient common envelopes. We show that it is essential to consider multiple channels when interpreting gravitational wave catalogs, as inference on branching fractions and physical prescriptions becomes biased when contributing formation scenarios are not considered or incorrect physical prescriptions are assumed. Although our quantitative results can be affected by uncertain assumptions in model predictions, our methodology is capable of including models with updated theoretical considerations and additional formation channels.Comment: 27 pages (14 pages main text + 13 pages appendices/references), 8 figures, 1 table, published in Ap

Exploring the nature of ultra-luminous X-ray sources across stellar population ages using detailed binary evolution calculations

Ultra-luminous X-ray sources (ULXs) are sources observed to exceed the Eddington limit of a stellar-mass black hole (BH). A fraction of ULX sources show X-ray pulses which are evidence for accreting neutron stars (NSs). Theoretical studies have suggested that NSs dominate the compact objects of intrinsic ULXs, even though the majority of observed sample is non-pulsating, implying that X-ray pulses from many NS ULXs are unobservable. We use POSYDON to generate and study X-ray binary populations spanning starburst ages 5 to 1000Myr. Following theoretical predictions for the alignment of the NS spin axis with the accretion disc, we estimate the required accreted mass in ULXs so that the alignment suppresses observable X-ray pulses. While the properties of ULXs are sensitive to model assumptions, there are certain trends that the populations follow. Young and old stellar populations are dominated by BH and NS accretors, respectively. The donors go from massive H-rich main-sequence (MS) stars in young populations (<100Myr) to low-mass post-MS H-rich stars in older populations (>100Myr), with stripped He-rich giant stars dominating the populations at around 100Myr. In addition, we find that NS ULXs exhibit stronger geometrical beaming than BH ULXs, leading to an under-representation of NS accretors in observed populations. Coupled with our finding that X-ray pulses are suppressed in at least 60% of the NS ULXs, we suggest that the observed fraction of ULXs with detectable X-ray pulses is very small, in agreement with observations. This study investigates the effects of age on ULXs as well as the effects of different model assumptions on ULX demographics. We show that geometrical beaming and the mass-accretion phase are critical aspects of understanding ULX observations. Our results suggest that even though most ULXs have accreting NSs, those with observable X-ray pulses would be very few.Comment: 22 pages, 12 figures, Accepted by A&A. Fixed typos and updated references. Referee's comments were addresse

Active Learning for Computationally Efficient Distribution of Binary Evolution Simulations

Binary stars undergo a variety of interactions and evolutionary phases, critical for predicting and explaining observed properties. Binary population synthesis with full stellar-structure and evolution simulations are computationally expensive requiring a large number of mass-transfer sequences. The recently developed binary population synthesis code POSYDON incorporates grids of MESA binary star simulations which are then interpolated to model large-scale populations of massive binaries. The traditional method of computing a high-density rectilinear grid of simulations is not scalable for higher-dimension grids, accounting for a range of metallicities, rotation, and eccentricity. We present a new active learning algorithm, psy-cris, which uses machine learning in the data-gathering process to adaptively and iteratively select targeted simulations to run, resulting in a custom, high-performance training set. We test psy-cris on a toy problem and find the resulting training sets require fewer simulations for accurate classification and regression than either regular or randomly sampled grids. We further apply psy-cris to the target problem of building a dynamic grid of MESA simulations, and we demonstrate that, even without fine tuning, a simulation set of only $\sim 1/4$ the size of a rectilinear grid is sufficient to achieve the same classification accuracy. We anticipate further gains when algorithmic parameters are optimized for the targeted application. We find that optimizing for classification only may lead to performance losses in regression, and vice versa. Lowering the computational cost of producing grids will enable future versions of POSYDON to cover more input parameters while preserving interpolation accuracies.Comment: 20 pages (16 main text), 10 figures, submitted to Ap

X-ray luminosity function of high-mass X-ray binaries: Studying the signatures of different physical processes using detailed binary evolution calculations

The ever-expanding observational sample of X-ray binaries (XRBs) makes them excellent laboratories for constraining binary evolution theory. Such constraints can be obtained by studying the effects of various physical assumptions on synthetic X-ray luminosity functions (XLFs) and comparing to observed XLFs. In this work, we focus on high-mass XRBs (HMXBs) and study the effects on the XLF of various, poorly-constrained assumptions regarding physical processes such as the common-envelope phase, the core-collapse, and wind-fed accretion. We use the new binary population synthesis code POSYDON, which employs extensive pre-computed grids of detailed stellar structure and binary evolution models, to simulate the evolution of binaries. We generate 96 synthetic XRB populations corresponding to different combinations of model assumptions. The generated HMXB XLFs are feature-rich, deviating from the commonly assumed single-power law. We find a break in our synthetic XLF at luminosity $\sim 10^{38}$ erg s$^{-1}$, similar to observed XLFs. However, we find also a general overabundance of XRBs (up to a factor of $\sim$10 for certain model parameter combinations) driven primarily by XRBs with black hole accretors. Assumptions about the transient behavior of Be-XRBs, asymmetric supernova kicks, and common-envelope physics can significantly affect the shape and normalization of our synthetic XLFs. We find that less well-studied assumptions regarding the circularization of the orbit at the onset of Roche-lobe overflow and criteria for the formation of an X-ray emitting accretion disk around wind-accreting black holes can also impact our synthetic XLFs. Our study reveals the importance of large-scale parameter studies, highlighting the power of XRBs in constraining binary evolution theory.Comment: 31 pages, 32 figures, Accepted by A&A. Fixed typos and updated references. Referee's comments were addresse

A Black Hole Kicked At Birth: MAXI J1305-704

When a compact object is formed in a binary, any mass lost during core collapse will impart a kick on the binary's center of mass. Asymmetries in this mass loss would impart an additional natal kick on the remnant black hole or neutron star, whether it was formed in a binary or in isolation. While it is well established that neutron stars receive natal kicks upon formation, it is unclear whether black holes do as well. Here, we consider the low-mass X-ray binary MAXI J1305-704, which has been reported to have a space velocity $\gtrsim$ 200 km/s. In addition to integrating its trajectory to infer its velocity upon formation of its black hole, we reconstruct its evolutionary history, accounting for recent estimates of its period, black hole mass, mass ratio, and donor effective temperature from photometric and spectroscopic observations. We find that if MAXI J1305-704 formed via isolated binary evolution in the thick Galactic disk, then its black hole received a natal kick of at least 70 km/s with 95\% confidence.Comment: To be submitted; 9 pages, 5 figure

Searching for candidates of coalescing binary black holes formed through chemically homogeneous evolution in GWTC-3

The LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (LVK) collaboration has announced 90 coalescing binary black holes (BBHs) with $p_{\rm astro} > 50\%$ to date, however, the origin of their formation channels is still an open scientific question. Given various properties of BBHs (BH component masses and individual spins) inferred using the default priors by the LVK, independent groups have been trying to explain the formation of the BBHs with different formation channels. Of all formation scenarios, the chemically homogeneous evolution (CHE) channel has stood out with distinguishing features, namely, nearly-equal component masses and preferentially high individual spins aligned with the orbital angular momentum. We perform Bayesian inference on the BBH events officially reported in GWTC-3 with astrophysically-predicted priors representing different formation channels of the isolated binary evolution (CEE: common-envelope evolution channel; CHE; SMT: stable mass transfer). Given assumed models, we report strong evidence for GW190517\_055101 being most likely to have formed through the CHE channel. Assuming the BBH events in the subsample are all formed through one of the isolated binary evolution channels, we obtain the lower limits on the local merger rate density of these channels at $11.45 ~\mathrm{Gpc^{-3}~yr^{-1}}$ (CEE), $0.18 ~\mathrm{Gpc^{-3}~yr^{-1}}$ (CHE), and $0.63 ~\mathrm{Gpc^{-3}~yr^{-1}}$ (SMT) at $90\%$ credible level.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, 1 tabl

The impact of mass-transfer physics on the observable properties of field binary black hole populations

We study the impact of mass-transfer physics on the observable properties of binary black hole populations formed through isolated binary evolution. We investigate the impact of mass-accretion efficiency onto compact objects and common-envelope efficiency on the observed distributions of $\chi_{eff}$, $M_{chirp}$ and $q$. We find that low common envelope efficiency translates to tighter orbits post common envelope and therefore more tidally spun up second-born black holes. However, these systems have short merger timescales and are only marginally detectable by current gravitational-waves detectors as they form and merge at high redshifts ($z\sim 2$), outside current detector horizons. Assuming Eddington-limited accretion efficiency and that the first-born black hole is formed with a negligible spin, we find that all non-zero $\chi_{eff}$ systems in the detectable population can come only from the common envelope channel as the stable mass-transfer channel cannot shrink the orbits enough for efficient tidal spin-up to take place. We find the local rate density ($z\simeq 0.01$) for the common envelope channel is in the range $\sim 17-113~Gpc^{-3}yr^{-1}$ considering a range of $\alpha_{CE} \in [0.2,5.0]$ while for the stable mass transfer channel the rate density is $\sim 25~Gpc^{-3}yr^{-1}$. The latter drops by two orders of magnitude if the mass accretion onto the black hole is not Eddington limited because conservative mass transfer does not shrink the orbit as efficiently as non-conservative mass transfer does. Finally, using GWTC-2 events, we constrain the lower bound of branching fraction from other formation channels in the detected population to be $\sim 0.2$. Assuming all remaining events to be formed through either stable mass transfer or common envelope channels, we find moderate to strong evidence in favour of models with inefficient common envelopes.Comment: 26 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Investigating the Lower Mass Gap with Low Mass X-ray Binary Population Synthesis

Mass measurements from low-mass black hole X-ray binaries (LMXBs) and radio pulsars have been used to identify a gap between the most massive neutron stars (NSs) and the least massive black holes (BHs). BH mass measurements in LMXBs are typically only possible for transient systems: outburst periods enable detection via all-sky X-ray monitors, while quiescent periods enable radial-velocity measurements of the low-mass donor. We quantitatively study selection biases due to the requirement of transient behavior for BH mass measurements. Using rapid population synthesis simulations (COSMIC), detailed binary stellar-evolution models (MESA), and the disk instability model of transient behavior, we demonstrate that transient-LMXB selection effects introduce observational biases, and can suppress mass-gap BHs in the observed sample. However, we find a population of transient LMXBs with mass-gap BHs form through accretion-induced collapse of a NS during the LMXB phase, which is inconsistent with observations. These results are robust against variations of binary evolution prescriptions. The significance of this accretion-induced collapse population depends upon the maximum NS birth mass $M_\mathrm{ NS, birth-max}$. To reflect the observed dearth of low-mass BHs, COSMIC and MESA models favor $M_\mathrm{ NS, birth-max} \lesssim2M_{\odot}$. In the absence of further observational biases against LMXBs with mass-gap BHs, our results indicate the need for additional physics connected to the modeling of LMXB formation and evolution.Comment: 21 pages, accepted to Ap

Drought in northern Italy - March 2022: GDO analytical report

- A severe drought has been affecting northern Italy and the Po River basin in particular. Dry conditions are related to a persistent lack of precipitation since December 2021. - The severe precipitation deficit is already affecting water resources. Water competition from different sectors is likely to start sooner than usual. Drought is already impacting the stored water volume for energy production in the Italian hydropower system. Most of the reservoirs are below the minimum historical values (1970-2019) since September 2021. The latest data shows an amount of stored energy of 774 GWh at the beginning of March 2022, 27.5% less than the 8-year minimum (1068 GWh in 2021). - Poor snow accumulation is estimated by the Snow Water Equivalent indicator, with extremely low values in the southern Alps during winter. These conditions cause concerns for melting snow contribution to river discharges in late spring, increasing the likelihood of hydrological drought in the coming months. - Due to a slightly warmer than usual winter season, an early start of the growing season corresponds to better than normal conditions for vegetation growth in the region. However, the lack of precipitation may cause severe impacts as soon as re-growth takes up speed in spring. - Drier than normal conditions are forecasted for most of Italy for the next three months. This makes it less probable that abundant precipitation will bring relief to the current situation, and it rises concerns about widespread and concurrent impacts.JRC.E.1 - Disaster Risk Managemen