The Application of Hidden Markov Models to the Analysis of Real Convergence

This paper employs hidden Markov models and the Viterbi path to analyze the process of real convergence. Such an approach combines the analysis of cyclical and income-level convergence. Twelve macroeconomic variables in the sample of 28 EU countries observed in the 1995-2016 period are within the scope of the study. The results indicate, among others, the existence of real convergence of Poland toward the remaining EU countries in terms of the levels of GDP per capita at PPP and GDP growth rates, with a short-run period of divergence during the global crisis

Konwergencja dochodowa w krajach UE: ujęcie miesięczne

The aim of the article is to verify the f convergence hypothesis for the whole EU28 group with the use of monthly data. On the basis of turning points in the economic growth paths of EU countries, identified using hidden Markov models, the structural breakdowns in 2008 and 2013 were introduced into the regression model. The added value of the study is monthly estimates of the convergence rate based on extrapolated time series using monthly values of the economic sentiment indicator. The f convergence hypothesis was positively verified on the basis of monthly data. It turned out, however, that the convergence was taking place at different rates between the turning points. In addition, large deviations in estimates for extrapolated monthly data were observed in relation to results based on official annual time series. Convergence analysis based on the monthly basis allows to get a more precise picture of the economic growth paths in EU countries.(original abstract)Celem artykułu jest weryfikacja hipotezy o istnieniu konwergencji typu f dla całej grupy UE28, opartej na szacunkach poszczególnych zmiennych w ujęciu miesięcznym. Na podstawie punktów zwrotnych w ścieżkach wzrostu gospodarczego krajów UE, zidentyfikowanych z wykorzystaniem ukrytych modeli Markowa, wprowadzono do modelu regresji załamania strukturalne w latach 2008 i 2013. Wartością dodaną badania jest uzyskanie miesięcznych oszacowań tempa konwergencji według ekstrapolowanych danych z użyciem miesięcznych wartości wskaźnika nastrojów gospodarczych pochodzących z badań ankietowych. Hipoteza konwergencji f na podstawie danych miesięcznych została pozytywnie zweryfikowana. Okazało się jednak, że zbieżność zachodziła w różnym tempie (między punktami zwrotnymi). Zauważono ponadto duże odchylenia oszacowań dla ekstrapolowanych miesięcznych danych w stosunku do wyników opartych na zaobserwowanych rocznych wartościach szeregów czasowych. Badania nad konwergencją w cyklu miesięcznym umożliwiają zatem uzyskanie pełniejszego obrazu ścieżek wzrostu gospodarczego w krajach UE.(abstrakt oryginalny

Rola kapitału zagranicznego w sektorze bankowym dla stabilności finansowej i rozwoju gospodarczego krajów postkomunistycznych

The foreign capital in the banking sector plays an important role in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries. The global financial crisis has shown that apart from the positive impact of foreign-owned banks, they also constitute a transmission channel for shocks to host countries. This study covers 20 CESEE countries over the period 1995–2014 and concentrates on the role of foreign-owned banks for financial stability and economic growth. Our results indicate that their role is neutral, however, a negative impact may be indirect because of their aggressive lending policies

Self-Identification of Polish Academic Economists with Schools of Economic Thought

The paper presents the results of a research conducted in 2014–2016, aimed at characterising the milieu of the Polish academic economists with respect to their self-identification with modern schools of economic thought. Using econometric modelling, the social variables determining the theoretical choices made by the economists themselves were identified. We found that the largest group of the Polish academic economists identifies themselves with new institutional economics. Nearly half of the respondents declared their association with heterodox approaches, while only about a quarter of the respondents showed association with economic orthodoxy. Such a structure of self-identification of the Polish academic economists with schools of economic thought distinguishes it from the ones in other European countries, such as Italy and Germany

Valve-in-valve transcatheter transfemoral mitral valve implantation (ViV-TMVI): Characteristics and early results from nationwide registry

Background: Valve-in-valve transcatheter transfemoral mitral valve implantation (ViV-TMVI) is an emerging treatment alternative to reoperation in high surgical risk patients with a failed mitral bioprostheses. Aim: To describe characteristics and evaluate 30-day outcomes of ViV-TMVI in the Polish population. Methods: Nationwide registry was initiated to collect data of all patients with failed mitral bioprosthesis undergoing ViV-TMVI in Poland. This study presents 30-days clinical and echocardiographic follow-up. Results: Overall, 27 ViV-TMVI were performed in 8 centers until May 2022 (85% since 2020). Mean (standard deviation [SD]) age was 73 (11.6) years with the median (interquartile range [IQR]) STS score of 5.3% (4.3%–14.3%). Mean (SD) time between surgical implantation and ViV-TMVI was 8.2 (3.2) years. Failed Hancock II (29%) and Perimount Magna (22%) were most frequently treated. Mechanisms of failure were equally often pure mitral regurgitation or stenosis (both 37%) with mixed etiology in 26%. Balloon-expandable Sapien 3/Ultra were used in all but 1 patient. Technical success was 96.3% (1 patient required additional prosthesis). Mean (SD) transvalvular mitral gradient reached 6.7 (2.2) mm Hg and mitral valve area was 1.8 (0.4) cm2. None of the patients had moderate or severe mitral regurgitation with only 14.8% graded as mild. In 92.6% device success (2 patients had mean gradient ≥10 mm Hg) and in 85.6% procedural success was present. There were no deaths, cerebrovascular events or need for mitral valve surgery during 30-day follow-up. Conclusions: In short-term observation ViV-TMVI is safe and effective alternative for patients with failed mitral bioprosthesis at high surgical risk of re-operation. Longer observations on larger sample are warranted

Sonata da camera in modo ironico

This music score was submitted for the Kaleidoscope 2020 Call for Scores, an open access collaboration with the UCLA Music Library