Recombination rate and selection strength in HIV intra-patient evolution

The evolutionary dynamics of HIV during the chronic phase of infection is driven by the host immune response and by selective pressures exerted through drug treatment. To understand and model the evolution of HIV quantitatively, the parameters governing genetic diversification and the strength of selection need to be known. While mutation rates can be measured in single replication cycles, the relevant effective recombination rate depends on the probability of coinfection of a cell with more than one virus and can only be inferred from population data. However, most population genetic estimators for recombination rates assume absence of selection and are hence of limited applicability to HIV, since positive and purifying selection are important in HIV evolution. Here, we estimate the rate of recombination and the distribution of selection coefficients from time-resolved sequence data tracking the evolution of HIV within single patients. By examining temporal changes in the genetic composition of the population, we estimate the effective recombination to be r=1.4e-5 recombinations per site and generation. Furthermore, we provide evidence that selection coefficients of at least 15% of the observed non-synonymous polymorphisms exceed 0.8% per generation. These results provide a basis for a more detailed understanding of the evolution of HIV. A particularly interesting case is evolution in response to drug treatment, where recombination can facilitate the rapid acquisition of multiple resistance mutations. With the methods developed here, more precise and more detailed studies will be possible, as soon as data with higher time resolution and greater sample sizes is available.Comment: to appear in PLoS Computational Biolog

Can spacetime curvature induced corrections to Lamb shift be observable?

The Lamb shift results from the coupling of an atom to vacuum fluctuations of quantum fields, so corrections are expected to arise when the spacetime is curved since the vacuum fluctuations are modified by the presence of spacetime curvature. Here, we calculate the curvature-induced correction to the Lamb shift outside a spherically symmetric object and demonstrate that this correction can be remarkably significant outside a compact massive astrophysical body. For instance, for a neutron star or a stellar mass black hole, the correction is $\sim$ 25% at a radial distance of $4GM/c^2$, $\sim$ 16% at $10GM/c^2$ and as large as $\sim$ 1.6% even at $100GM/c^2$, where $M$ is the mass of the object, $G$ the Newtonian constant, and $c$ the speed of light. In principle, we can look at the spectra from a distant compact super-massive body to find such corrections. Therefore, our results suggest a possible way of detecting fundamental quantum effects in astronomical observations.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, slight title change, clarifications and more discussions added, version to be published in JHE

Limits to the Rate of Adaptive Substitution in Sexual Populations

In large populations, many beneficial mutations may be simultaneously available and may compete with one another, slowing adaptation. By finding the probability of fixation of a favorable allele in a simple model of a haploid sexual population, we find limits to the rate of adaptive substitution, , that depend on simple parameter combinations. When variance in fitness is low and linkage is loose, the baseline rate of substitution is , where is the population size, is the rate of beneficial mutations per genome, and is their mean selective advantage. Heritable variance in log fitness due to unlinked loci reduces by under polygamy and under monogamy. With a linear genetic map of length Morgans, interference is yet stronger. We use a scaling argument to show that the density of adaptive substitutions depends on , , , and only through the baseline density: . Under the approximation that the interference due to different sweeps adds up, we show that , implying that interference prevents the rate of adaptive substitution from exceeding one per centimorgan per 200 generations. Simulations and numerical calculations confirm the scaling argument and confirm the additive approximation for ; for higher , the rate of adaptation grows above , but only very slowly. We also consider the effect of sweeps on neutral diversity and show that, while even occasional sweeps can greatly reduce neutral diversity, this effect saturates as sweeps become more common—diversity can be maintained even in populations experiencing very strong interference. Our results indicate that for some organisms the rate of adaptive substitution may be primarily recombination-limited, depending only weakly on the mutation supply and the strength of selection

Multiple ITS Copies Reveal Extensive Hybridization within Rheum (Polygonaceae), a Genus That Has Undergone Rapid Radiation

During adaptive radiation events, characters can arise multiple times due to parallel evolution, but transfer of traits through hybridization provides an alternative explanation for the same character appearing in apparently non-sister lineages. The signature of hybridization can be detected in incongruence between phylogenies derived from different markers, or from the presence of two divergent versions of a nuclear marker such as ITS within one individual.In this study, we cloned and sequenced ITS regions for 30 species of the genus Rheum, and compared them with a cpDNA phylogeny. Seven species contained two divergent copies of ITS that resolved in different clades from one another in each case, indicating hybridization events too recent for concerted evolution to have homogenised the ITS sequences. Hybridization was also indicated in at least two further species via incongruence in their position between ITS and cpDNA phylogenies. None of the ITS sequences present in these nine species matched those detected in any other species, which provides tentative evidence against recent introgression as an explanation. Rheum globulosum, previously indicated by cpDNA to represent an independent origin of decumbent habit, is indicated by ITS to be part of clade of decumbent species, which acquired cpDNA of another clade via hybridization. However decumbent and glasshouse morphology are confirmed to have arisen three and two times, respectively.These findings suggested that hybridization among QTP species of Rheum has been extensive, and that a role of hybridization in diversification of Rheum requires investigation

Quantification of biophysical adaptation benefits from Climate-Smart Agriculture using a Bayesian Belief Network

The need for smallholder farmers to adapt their practices to a changing climate is well recognised, particularly in Africa. The cost of adapting to climate change in Africa is estimated to be $20 to$30 billion per year, but the total amount pledged to finance adaptation falls significantly short of this requirement. The difficulty of assessing and monitoring when adaptation is achieved is one of the key barriers to the disbursement of performance-based adaptation finance. To demonstrate the potential of Bayesian Belief Networks for describing the impacts of specific activities on climate change resilience, we developed a simple model that incorporates climate projections, local environmental data, information from peer-reviewed literature and expert opinion to account for the adaptation benefits derived from Climate-Smart Agriculture activities in Malawi. This novel approach allows assessment of vulnerability to climate change under different land use activities and can be used to identify appropriate adaptation strategies and to quantify biophysical adaptation benefits from activities that are implemented. We suggest that multiple-indicator Bayesian Belief Network approaches can provide insights into adaptation planning for a wide range of applications and, if further explored, could be part of a set of important catalysts for the expansion of adaptation finance

Molecular modeling of temperature dependence of solubility parameters for amorphous polymers

A molecular modeling strategy is proposed to describe the temperature (T) dependence of solubility parameter (δ) for the amorphous polymers which exhibit glass-rubber transition behavior. The commercial forcefield “COMPASS” is used to support the atomistic simulations of the polymer. The temperature dependence behavior of δ for the polymer is modeled by running molecular dynamics (MD) simulation at temperatures ranging from 250 up to 650 K. Comparing the MD predicted δ value at 298 K and the glass transition temperature (Tg) of the polymer determined from δ–T curve with the experimental value confirm the accuracy of our method. The MD modeled relationship between δ and T agrees well with the previous theoretical works. We also observe the specific volume (v), cohesive energy (Ucoh), cohesive energy density (ECED) and δ shows a similar temperature dependence characteristics and a drastic change around the Tg. Meanwhile, the applications of δ and its temperature dependence property are addressed and discussed

Selected static foot assessments do not predict medial longitudinal arch motion during running

Background: Static assessments of the foot are commonly advocated within the running community to classify the foot with a view to recommending the appropriate type of running shoe. The aim of this work was to determine whether selected static foot assessment could predict medial longitudinal arch (MLA) motion during running. Methods: Fifteen physically active males (27 ± 5 years, 1.77 ± 0.04m, 80 ± 10kg) participated in the study. Foot Posture Index (FPI-6), MLA angle and rearfoot angle were measured in a relaxed standing position. MLA motion was calculated using the position of retro-reflective markers tracked by a VICON motion analysis system, while participants ran barefoot on a treadmill at a self-selected pace (2.8 ± 0.5m.s-1). Bivariate linear regression was used to determine whether the static measures predicted MLA deformation and MLA angles at initial contact, midsupport and toe off. Results: All three foot classification measures were significant predictors of MLA angle at initial contact, midsupport and toe off (p < .05) explaining 41-90% of the variance. None of the static foot classification measures were significant predictors of MLA deformation during the stance phase of running. Conclusion: Selected static foot measures did not predict dynamic MLA deformation during running. Given that MLA deformation has theoretically been linked to running injuries, the clinical relevance of predicting MLA angle at discrete time points during the stance phase of running is questioned. These findings also question the validity of the selected static foot classification measures when looking to characterise the foot during running. This indicates that alternative means of assessing the foot to inform footwear selection are required

Identifying hypermethylated CpG islands using a quantile regression model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>DNA methylation has been shown to play an important role in the silencing of tumor suppressor genes in various tumor types. In order to have a system-wide understanding of the methylation changes that occur in tumors, we have developed a differential methylation hybridization (DMH) protocol that can simultaneously assay the methylation status of all known CpG islands (CGIs) using microarray technologies. A large percentage of signals obtained from microarrays can be attributed to various measurable and unmeasurable confounding factors unrelated to the biological question at hand. In order to correct the bias due to noise, we first implemented a quantile regression model, with a quantile level equal to 75%, to identify hypermethylated CGIs in an earlier work. As a proof of concept, we applied this model to methylation microarray data generated from breast cancer cell lines. However, we were unsure whether 75% was the best quantile level for identifying hypermethylated CGIs. In this paper, we attempt to determine which quantile level should be used to identify hypermethylated CGIs and their associated genes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We introduce three statistical measurements to compare the performance of the proposed quantile regression model at different quantile levels (95%, 90%, 85%, 80%, 75%, 70%, 65%, 60%), using known methylated genes and unmethylated housekeeping genes reported in breast cancer cell lines and ovarian cancer patients. Our results show that the quantile levels ranging from 80% to 90% are better at identifying known methylated and unmethylated genes.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this paper, we propose to use a quantile regression model to identify hypermethylated CGIs by incorporating probe effects to account for noise due to unmeasurable factors. Our model can efficiently identify hypermethylated CGIs in both breast and ovarian cancer data.</p

Intensive Case Finding and Isoniazid Preventative Therapy in HIV Infected Individuals in Africa: Economic Model and Value of Information Analysis

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) accounts of much of the morbidity and mortality associated with HIV. We evaluate the costeffectiveness of different strategies to actively screen for TB disease in HIV positive individuals, where isoniazid preventative therapy (IPT) is given to those screening negative, and use value of information analysis (VOI) to identify future research priorities. Methodology / Principal Findings: We built an individual sampling model to investigate the costs (2010 US Dollars) and consequences of screening for TB, and providing TB treatment or IPT in adults testing HIV positive in Sub-Saharan Africa. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to assess performance of the nine different TB screening strategies evaluated. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted to incorporate decision uncertainty, and expected value of perfect information for the entire model and for groups of parameters was calculated. Screening all HIV infected individuals with sputum microscopy was the least costly strategy, with other strategies not cost-effective at WHO recommended thresholds. Screening those with TB symptoms with sputum microscopy and CXR would be cost-effective at a threshold ICER of $7,800 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), but associated with significant uncertainty. VOI analysis suggests further information would be of value. Conclusions / Significance: Resource-constrained countries in sub-Saharan Africa wishing to scale up TB preventativ