Quarterly U.S. unemployment: cycles, seasons and asymmetries

This paper documents three stylized facts for the quarterly unemployment rate in the United States. Firstly, unemployment is asymmetric over the business cycle, i.e. it rises sharply in recessions and it falls slowly in expansions. Secondly, its seasonal fluctuations are not constant across the two business cycle stages in the sense that there is less seasonality in recession periods. Thirdly, the effect of shocks to the unemployment rate in expansions seem transitory, while this effect is permanent in recessions. Some implications of these stylized facts for empirical macroeconomics and seasonal adjustment are discussed

Uptake of Multiple Microinsurance Schemes: Evidence from Sri Lanka

Since it is common among households to use more than one form of microinsurance, this paper estimates the uptake of different kinds of microinsurance by the same population. We use a multivariate probit model which examines the participation in the different forms of insurance simultaneously. By doing this, we can establish whether participation patterns in different types of microinsurance options indicate if the participation in specific insurance schemes is complementary or a substitute. We establish that membership of a microfinance institution means that households are more likely to have purchased an insurance policy. Furthermore, the study describes a need for more inclusive and composite packages of microinsurance products for greater financial inclusion of the poor

The complexities of breast cancer desmoplasia

The stromal, or 'desmoplastic', responses seen histologically in primary breast carcinomas can vary from being predominantly cellular (fibroblasts/myofibroblasts) with little collagen to being a dense acellular tissue. The mechanisms underlying the stromal response are complex; paracrine activation of myofibroblasts by growth factors is important but the contribution of cytokines/chemokines should not be ignored. A recent xenograft study has proposed that platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) is the initiator of the desmoplastic response, but this has not been confirmed by (limited) analyses in vivo. Further studies are required to elaborate the mechanisms of the desmoplastic response, to determine its role in breast cancer progression and whether it is the same for all carcinomas

Media Reporting and Business Cycles: Empirical Evidence based on News Data

Recent literature suggests that news shocks could be an important driver of economic cycles. In this article, we use a direct measure of news sentiment derived from media reports. This allows us to examine whether innovations in the reporting tone correlate with changes in the assessment and expectations of the business situation as reported by firms in the German manufacturing sector. We fi nd that innovations in news reporting affect business expectations, even when conditioning on the current business situation and industrial production. The dynamics of the empirical model con rm theoretical predictions that news innovations affect real variables such as production via changes in expectations. Looking at individual sectors within manufacturing, we fi nd that macroeconomic news is at least as important for business expectations as sector-spefici c news. This is consistent with the existence of information complementarities across sectors

Risk, balanced skills and entrepreneurship

This paper proposes that risk aversion encourages individuals to invest in balanced skill profiles, making them more likely to become entrepreneurs. By not taking this possible linkage into account, previous research has underestimated the impacts of both risk aversion and balanced skills on the likelihood individuals choose entrepreneurship. Data on Dutch university graduates provide an illustration supporting our contention. We raise the possibility that even risk-averse people might be suited to entrepreneurship; and it may also help explain why prior research has generated somewhat mixed evidence about the effects of risk aversion on selection into entrepreneurship

People’s understanding of verbal risk descriptors in patient information leaflets : a cross-sectional national survey of 18- to 65-year-olds in England

Introduction Evidence suggests the current verbal risk descriptors used to communicate side effect risk in patient information leaflets (PILs) are overestimated. Objectives The aim was to establish how people understand the verbal risk descriptors recommended for use in PILs by the European Commission (EC), and alternative verbal risk descriptors, in the context of mild and severe side effects. Methods A cross-sectional online survey was carried out by a market research company recruiting participants aged between 18 and 65 years living in England. Data were collected between 18 March and 1 April 2016. Participants were given a hypothetical scenario regarding the risk of mild or severe medication side effects and asked to estimate how many out of 10,000 people would be affected for each of the verbal risk descriptors being tested. Results A total of 1003 participants were included in the final sample. The risks conveyed by the EC recommended verbal risk descriptors were greatly overestimated by participants. Two distinct distributions were apparent for participant estimates of side effect risks: those for ‘high risk’ verbal descriptors (e.g. ‘common’, ‘likely’, ‘high chance’) and those for ‘low risk’ verbal descriptors (e.g. ‘uncommon’, ‘unlikely’, ‘low chance’). Within these two groups, the distributions were near to identical regardless of what adverb (e.g. very, high, fair) or adjective (e.g. common, likely, chance) was used. The EC recommended verbal risk descriptors were more likely to be understood in accordance with their intended meanings when describing severe side effects. Very few demographic or psychological factors were consistently associated with how well participants understood the EC recommended verbal risk descriptors. Discussion The current verbal risk descriptors used in PILs are ineffective at best and misleading at worst. Discontinuing the use of verbal risk descriptors would limit the likelihood of people overestimating the risk of side effects

Financial risk tolerance of Chinese American families

This chapter investigates the factors that affect financial risk tolerance of Chinese American households. Research on the economic well-being of Chinese American households is extremely limited. Few national datasets differentiate Chinese Americans from other race/ethnicity groups. For this study, a survey of Chinese American households residing in Midwestern states was conducted. The results showed that about 80.5 % of the sample households expressed a willingness to take at least some financial risks. Factors that have an impact on financial risk tolerance of Chinese American households included gender, non-financial assets, income, and investment time horizon. Chinese Americans represents a small but fast-growing population in the USA. More research should be done to better serve the financial needs of this group.Includes bibliographical references

Gender differences in disability after sickness absence with musculoskeletal disorders: five-year prospective study of 37,942 women and 26,307 men

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Gender differences in the prevalence and occupational consequences of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) are consistently found in epidemiological studies. The study investigated whether gender differences also exist with respect to chronicity, measured as the rate of transition from sickness absence into permanent disability pension (DP).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Prospective national cohort study in Norway including all cases with a spell of sickness absence > eight weeks during 1997 certified with a MSD, 37,942 women and 26,307 men. The cohort was followed-up for five years with chronicity measured as granting of DP as the endpoint. The effect of gender was estimated in the full sample adjusting for sociodemographic factors and diagnostic distribution. Gender specific analyses were performed with the same explanatory variables. Finally, the gender difference was estimated for nine diagnostic subgroups.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The crude rate of DP was 22% for women and 18% for men. After adjusting for all sociodemographic variables, a slightly higher female risk of DP remained. However, additional adjustment for diagnostic distribution removed the gender difference completely. Having children and working full time decreased the DP risk for both genders, whereas low socioeconomic status increased the risk similarly. There was a different age effect as more women obtained a DP below the age of 50. Increased female risk of chronicity remained for myalgia/fibromyalgia, back disorders and "other/unspecified" after relevant adjustments, whereas men with neck disorders were at higher risk of chronicity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Women with MSDs had a moderately increased risk of chronicity compared to men, when including MSDs with a traumatic background. Possible explanations are lower income, a higher proportion belonging to diagnostic subgroups with poor prognosis, and a younger age of chronicity among women. When all sociodemographic and diagnostic variables were adjusted for, no gender difference remained, except for some diagnostic subgroups.</p