Outlook for tuberculosis elimination in California: An individual-based stochastic model.

RationaleAs part of the End TB Strategy, the World Health Organization calls for low-tuberculosis (TB) incidence settings to achieve pre-elimination (<10 cases per million) and elimination (<1 case per million) by 2035 and 2050, respectively. These targets require testing and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI).ObjectivesTo estimate the ability and costs of testing and treatment for LTBI to reach pre-elimination and elimination targets in California.MethodsWe created an individual-based epidemic model of TB, calibrated to historical cases. We evaluated the effects of increased testing (QuantiFERON-TB Gold) and treatment (three months of isoniazid and rifapentine). We analyzed four test and treat targeting strategies: (1) individuals with medical risk factors (MRF), (2) non-USB, (3) both non-USB and MRF, and (4) all Californians. For each strategy, we estimated the effects of increasing test and treat by a factor of 2, 4, or 10 from the base case. We estimated the number of TB cases occurring and prevented, and net and incremental costs from 2017 to 2065 in 2015 U.S. dollars. Efficacy, costs, adverse events, and treatment dropout were estimated from published data. We estimated the cost per case averted and per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.Measurements and main resultsIn the base case, 106,000 TB cases are predicted to 2065. Pre-elimination was achieved by 2065 in three scenarios: a 10-fold increase in the non-USB and persons with MRF (by 2052), and 4- or 10-fold increase in all Californians (by 2058 and 2035, respectively). TB elimination was not achieved by any intervention scenario. The most aggressive strategy, 10-fold in all Californians, achieved a case rate of 8 (95% UI 4-16) per million by 2050. Of scenarios that reached pre-elimination, the incremental net cost was $20 billion (non-USB and MRF) to$48 billion. These had an incremental cost per QALY of $657,000 to$3.1 million. A more efficient but somewhat less effective single-lifetime test strategy reached as low as $80,000 per QALY.ConclusionsSubstantial gains can be made in TB control in coming years by scaling-up current testing and treatment in non-USB and those with medical risks

Traffic-Related Air Pollution and All-Cause Mortality during Tuberculosis Treatment in California.

BackgroundAmbient air pollution and tuberculosis (TB) have an impact on public health worldwide, yet associations between the two remain uncertain.ObjectiveWe determined the impact of residential traffic on mortality during treatment of active TB.MethodsFrom 2000-2012, we enrolled 32,875 patients in California with active TB and followed them throughout treatment. We obtained patient data from the California Tuberculosis Registry and calculated traffic volumes and traffic densities in 100- to 400-m radius buffers around residential addresses. We used Cox models to determine mortality hazard ratios, controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical potential confounders. We categorized traffic exposures as quintiles and determined trends using Wald tests.ResultsParticipants contributed 22,576 person-years at risk. There were 2,305 deaths during treatment for a crude mortality rate of 1,021 deaths per 10,000 person-years. Traffic volumes and traffic densities in all buffers around patient residences were associated with increased mortality during TB treatment, although the findings were not statistically significant in all buffers. As the buffer size decreased, fifth-quintile mortality hazards increased, and trends across quintiles of traffic exposure became more statistically significant. Increasing quintiles of nearest-road traffic volumes in the 100-m buffer were associated with 3%, 14%, 19%, and 28% increased risk of death during TB treatment [first quintile, referent; second quintile hazard ratio (HR)=1.03 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.86, 1.25]; third quintile HR=1.14 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.37); fourth quintile HR=1.19 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.43); fifth quintile HR=1.28 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.53), respectively; p-trend=0.002].ConclusionsResidential proximity to road traffic volumes and traffic density were associated with increased all-cause mortality in patients undergoing treatment for active tuberculosis even after adjusting for multiple demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical factors, suggesting that TB patients are susceptible to the adverse health effects of traffic-related air pollution. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1699

Genomic Epidemiology of Multidrug-Resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis During Transcontinental Spread

The transcontinental spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis is poorly characterized in molecular epidemiologic studies. We used genomic sequencing to understand the establishment and dispersion of MDR Mycobacterium tuberculosis within a group of immigrants to the United States. We used a genomic epidemiology approach to study a genotypically matched (by spoligotype, IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism, and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number of tandem repeat signature) lineage 2/Beijing MDR strain implicated in an outbreak of tuberculosis among refugees in Thailand and consecutive cases within California. All 46 MDR M. tuberculosis genomes from both Thailand and California were highly related, with a median difference of 10 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The Wat Tham Krabok (WTK) strain is a new sequence type distinguished from all known Beijing strains by 55 SNPs and a genomic deletion (Rv1267c) associated with increased fitness. Sequence data revealed a highly prevalent MDR strain that included several closely related but distinct allelic variants within Thailand, rather than the occurrence of a single outbreak. In California, sequencing data supported multiple independent introductions of WTK with subsequent transmission and reactivation within the state, as well as a potential super spreader with a prolonged infectious period. Twenty-seven drug resistance-conferring mutations and 4 putative compensatory mutations were found within WTK strains. Genomic sequencing has substantial epidemiologic value in both low- and high-burden settings in understanding transmission chains of highly prevalent MDR strain

Treatment outcomes in global systematic review and patient meta-analysis of children with extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis

Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) has extremely poor treatment outcomes in adults. Limited data are available for children. We report on clinical manifestations, treatment, and outcomes for 37 children (<15 years of age) with bacteriologically confirmed XDR TB in 11 countries. These patients were managed during 1999–2013. For the 37 children, median age was 11 years, 32 (87%) had pulmonary TB, and 29 had a recorded HIV status; 7 (24%) were infected with HIV. Median treatment duration was 7.0 months for the intensive phase and 12.2 months for the continuation phase. Thirty (81%) children had favorable treatment outcomes. Four (11%) died, 1 (3%) failed treatment, and 2 (5%) did not complete treatment. We found a high proportion of favorable treatment outcomes among children, with mortality rates markedly lower than for adults. Regimens and duration of treatment varied considerably. Evaluation of new regimens in children is required

Treatment and outcomes in children with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

CAPRISA, 2018.Abstract available in pdf

Health insurance, healthcare utilization and language use among populations who experience risk for tuberculosis, California 2014-2017.

BackgroundCalifornia tuberculosis (TB) prevention goals include testing more than ten million at-risk Californians and treating two million infected with tuberculosis. Adequate health insurance and robust healthcare utilization are crucial to meeting these goals, but information on these factors for populations that experience risk for TB is limited.MethodsWe used data from the 2014-2017 California Health Interview Survey (n = 82,758), a population-based dual-frame telephone survey to calculate survey proportions and 95% confidence intervals (CI) stratified by country of birth, focusing on persons from countries of birth with the highest number of TB cases in California. Survey proportions for recent doctor's visit, overall health, smoking, and diabetes were age-adjusted.ResultsAmong 18-64 year-olds, 27% (CI: 25-30) of persons born in Mexico reported being uninsured in contrast with 3% (CI: 1-5) of persons born in India. Report of recent doctor's visit was highest among persons born in the Philippines, 84% (CI: 80-89) and lowest among Chinese-born persons, 70% (CI: 63-76). Persons born in Mexico were more likely to report community clinics as their usual source of care than persons born in China, Vietnam, or the Philippines. Poverty was highest among Mexican-born persons, 56% (CI: 54-58) and lowest among Indian-born persons, 9% (CI: 5-13). Of adults with a medical visit in a non-English language, 96% (CI: 96-97) were non-U.S.-born, but only 42% (CI: 40-44) of non-U.S.-born persons had a visit in a non-English language.DiscussionMany, though not all, of the populations that experience risk for TB had health insurance and used healthcare. We found key differences in usual source of care and language use by country of birth which should be considered when planning outreach to specific providers, clinic systems, insurers and communities for TB prevention and case-finding

Tuberculosis treatment managed by providers outside the Public Health Department: lessons for the Affordable Care Act.

INTRODUCTION:Tuberculosis (TB) requires at least six months of multidrug treatment and necessitates monitoring for response to treatment. Historically, public health departments (HDs) have cared for most TB patients in the United States. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) provides coverage for uninsured persons and may increase the proportion of TB patients cared for by private medical providers and other providers outside HDs (PMPs). We sought to determine whether there were differences in care provided by HDs and PMPs to inform public health planning under the ACA. METHODS:We conducted a retrospective, cross-sectional analysis of California TB registry data. We included adult TB patients with culture-positive, pulmonary TB reported in California during 2007-2011. We examined trends, described case characteristics, and created multivariate models measuring two standards of TB care in PMP- and HD-managed patients: documented culture conversion within 60 days, and use of directly observed therapy (DOT). RESULTS:The proportion of PMP-managed TB patients increased during 2007-2011 (p = 0.002). On univariable analysis (N = 4,606), older age, white, black or Asian/Pacific Islander race, and birth in the United States were significantly associated with PMP care (p<0.05). Younger age, Hispanic ethnicity, homelessness, drug or alcohol use, and cavitary and/or smear-positive TB disease, were associated with HD care. Multivariable analysis showed PMP care was associated with lack of documented culture conversion (adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 1.37, confidence interval [CI] 1.25-1.51) and lack of DOT (aRR = 8.56, CI 6.59-11.1). CONCLUSION:While HDs cared for TB cases with more social and clinical complexities, patients under PMP care were less likely to receive DOT and have documented culture conversion. This indicates a need for close collaboration between PMPs and HDs to ensure that optimal care is provided to all TB patients and TB transmission is halted. Strategies to enhance collaboration between HDs and PMPs should be included in ACA implementation

Tuberculosis case count trend, by provider type, California 1993–2011.

<p>HD  =  health department, PMP  =  private medical provider. Annual percent change (APC): HD 1993–2011 = −3.13, PMP 1993–2006 = −5.83, PMP 2006–2011 = +1.85.</p

No Documented Culture Conversion within 60 Days of TB Treatment Start, TB Cases Reported in California, 2007–2011 (n = 4604).

a<p>alive at diagnosis and starting treatment, pulmonary only, culture-positive TB, age ≥18 years old; excluding missing or Both provider type, moved out of United States, deaths ≤60 days after treatment start.</p>b<p>vs. HIV-negative or unknown status.</p><p>TB = tuberculosis, CC = culture conversion, RR = relative risk, CI = 95% confidence interval, aRR = adjusted relative risk, HIV = human immunodeficiency virus.</p><p>No Documented Culture Conversion within 60 Days of TB Treatment Start, TB Cases Reported in California, 2007–2011 (n = 4604).</p

Analytic cohort, 2007–2011.

<p>TB  =  tuberculosis.</p