Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics

Global forage-fish landings are increasing, with potentially grave consequences for marine ecosystems. Predators of forage fish may be influenced by this harvest, but the nature of these effects is contentious. Experimental fishery manipulations offer the best solution to quantify population-level impacts, but are rare. We used Bayesian inference to examine changes in chick survival, body condition and population growth rate of endangered African penguins Spheniscus demersus in response to 8 years of alternating time-area closures around two pairs of colonies. Our results demonstrate that fishing closures improved chick survival and condition, after controlling for changing prey availability. However, this effect was inconsistent across sites and years, highlighting the difficultly of assessing management interventions in marine ecosystems. Nevertheless, modelled increases in population growth rates exceeded 1% at one colony; i.e. the threshold considered biologically meaningful by fisheries management in South Africa. Fishing closures evidently can improve the population trend of a forage-fish-dependent predator-we therefore recommend they continue in South Africa and support their application elsewhere. However, detecting demographic gains for mobile marine predators from small no-take zones requires experimental time frames and scales that will often exceed those desired by decision makers

Correction to ‘Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics'

It has recently come to our attention that we made a coding error while implementing the hierarchical mixed-models describing chick condition and chick survival (equations (2.1) and (2.2), respectively) in ‘Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics' [1]. This error meant that the nested random effect described in equation (2.1) and the hierarchical shared frailty term described in equation (2.2) were not implemented correctly in the original analysis. This resulted in our reporting the model parameter estimates with higher precision than should have been the case (table 1 and figure 1). Here we present corrected results (table 1 and figure 1) based on correctly specified models in JAGS [2] applied to the datasets used in our original analysis. Our error, which pertained to the specification of the structure of the priors for the nested random effects (see electronic supplementary material), influenced the derived parameter estimates of the mean chick condition or chick survival during closed and open years (figure 1) more (standard deviations are between 29% and 285% larger in the corrected results) than the estimates for the regression coefficients representing the island effect (–0.8 to 9%), closure effect (4–8%) or their interaction (6–8%). These changes do not alter the predicted influence of the fisheries closures on the population dynamics of endangered African penguins Spheniscus demersus

Return to Robben Island of African Penguins that were rehabilitated, relocated or reared in captivity following the Treasure oil spill of 2000

Following an oil spill from the Treasure off the coast of South Africa in June 2000, about 19 000 oiled African Penguins Spheniscus demersus, including 14 825 from Robben Island, were caught for rehabilitation and subsequent release. A further 19 500 penguins that were not oiled — mostly birds in adult plumage, including 7 000 from Robben Island — were relocated some 700km to the east, to prevent them becoming oiled. Additionally, 3 350 orphaned chicks, including 2 643 from Robben Island — were collected for rearing in captivity and release to the wild. Some four years later — by the end of December 2004 — 70% of rehabilitated adults, 40% of relocated birds and 34% of captive-reared chicks had been seen back at Robben Island. Another 7% of birds relocated from Robben Island had been sighted at other localities. Rates of resighting rehabilitated birds were similar at Robben and Dassen Islands, but a greater proportion of relocated birds was seen at Dassen Island, where birds collected for relocation were mostly from breeding areas. The lower proportion of relocated birds seen at Robben Island is thought to result from this intervention causing some pre-breeding birds to move to other colonies. All three conservation interventions are considered to have been successful, but it is premature to assess their relative contributions to the conservation of the species. Three relocated birds tracked by satellite took 15–21 days to return to their home colonies. This rapid return may have resulted from breeding attempts being interrupted. After remaining at their home islands for 4–5 days, two of the tracked birds then left these islands for 19–36 days. We surmise that, after they had searched unsuccessfully for their mates, they abandoned breeding for the year 2000. Ostrich 2006, 77(3&4): 202–20

Detailed methods, additional results and model code. from Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics

ESM 1: Additional methods and results for estimating the closures effect sizes and uncertainty; Detailed results from the simulation of new condition data; Population projections – additional methods and results. ESM 2: code used to fit the model to estimate the effect of island closure on chick condition and chick survival

Scintillation light detection in the 6-m drift-length ProtoDUNE Dual Phase liquid argon TPC

DUNE is a dual-site experiment for long-baseline neutrino oscillation studies, neutrino astrophysics and nucleon decay searches. ProtoDUNE Dual Phase (DP) is a 6 $\times$ 6 $\times$ 6 m$^3$ liquid argon time-projection-chamber (LArTPC) that recorded cosmic-muon data at the CERN Neutrino Platform in 2019–2020 as a prototype of the DUNE Far Detector. Charged particles propagating through the LArTPC produce ionization and scintillation light. The scintillation light signal in these detectors can provide the trigger for non-beam events. In addition, it adds precise timing capabilities and improves the calorimetry measurements. In ProtoDUNE-DP, scintillation and electroluminescence light produced by cosmic muons in the LArTPC is collected by photomultiplier tubes placed up to 7 m away from the ionizing track. In this paper, the ProtoDUNE-DP photon detection system performance is evaluated with a particular focus on the different wavelength shifters, such as PEN and TPB, and the use of Xe-doped LAr, considering its future use in giant LArTPCs. The scintillation light production and propagation processes are analyzed and a comparison of simulation to data is performed, improving understanding of the liquid argon properties.DUNE is a dual-site experiment for long-baseline neutrino oscillation studies, neutrino astrophysics and nucleon decay searches. ProtoDUNE Dual Phase (DP) is a 6x6x6m3 liquid argon time-projection-chamber (LArTPC) that recorded cosmic-muon data at the CERN Neutrino Platform in 2019-2020 as a prototype of the DUNE Far Detector. Charged particles propagating through the LArTPC produce ionization and scintillation light. The scintillation light signal in these detectors can provide the trigger for non-beam events. In addition, it adds precise timing capabilities and improves the calorimetry measurements. In ProtoDUNE-DP, scintillation and electroluminescence light produced by cosmic muons in the LArTPC is collected by photomultiplier tubes placed up to 7 m away from the ionizing track. In this paper, the ProtoDUNE-DP photon detection system performance is evaluated with a particular focus on the different wavelength shifters, such as PEN and TPB, and the use of Xe-doped LAr, considering its future use in giant LArTPCs. The scintillation light production and propagation processes are analyzed and a comparison of simulation to data is performed, improving understanding of the liquid argon properties