Factors Influencing Predation on Juvenile Ungulates and Natural Selection Implications

Juvenile ungulates are generally more vulnerable to predation than are adult ungulates other than senescent individuals, not only because of their relative youth, fragility, and inexperience, but also because of congenital factors. Linnell et al.’s (Wildl. Biol. 1: 209-223) extensive review of predation on juvenile ungulates concluded that research was needed to determine the predisposition of these juveniles to predation. Since then, various characteristics that potentially predispose juvenile ungulates have emerged including blood characteristics, morphometric and other condition factors, and other factors such as birth period, the mother’s experience, and spatial and habitat aspects. To the extent that any of the physical or behavioral traits possessed by juvenile ungulates have a genetic or heritable and partly independent epigenetic component that predisposes them to predation, predators may play an important role in their natural selection. We review the possible influence of these characteristics on predisposing juvenile ungulates to predation and discuss natural selection implications and potential selection mechanisms. Although juvenile ungulates as a class are likely more vulnerable to predation than all but senescent adults, our review presents studies indicating that juveniles with certain tendencies or traits are killed more often than others. This finding suggests that successful predation on juveniles is more selective than is often assumed. Because we are unable to control for (or in some cases even measure) the myriad of other possible vulnerabilities such as differences in sensory abilities, intelligence, hiding abilities, tendency to travel, etc., finding selective predation based on the relatively few differences we can measure is noteworthy and points to the significant role that predation on juveniles has in the natural selection of ungulates. Future research should compare characteristics, especially those known to influence survival, between animals killed by predators versus those killed by other sources as well as survivors versus non-survivors to better understand predation’s role in natural selection

Elk Calf Survival and Mortality Following Wolf Restoration to Yellowstone National Park La Supervivencia y la Mortalidad de las Crı´as de Wapiti Tras la Restauracio´ n del Lobo al Parque Nacional de Yellowstone La Survie et la Mortalite´ des Faons de Wapitis qui a Suivi la Re´introduction du Loup au Parc de Yellowstone

We conducted a 3-year study (May 2003–Apr 2006) of mortality of northern Yellowstone elk (Cervus elaphus) calves to determine the cause for the recruitment decline (i.e., 33 calves to 13 calves/100 adult F) following the restoration of wolves (Canis lupus). We captured, fit with radiotransmitters, and evaluated blood characteristics and disease antibody seroprevalence in 151 calves ≤ 6 days old (68M:83F). Concentrations (x, SE) of potential condition indicators were as follows: thyroxine (T4; 13.8 µg/dL, 0.43), serum urea nitrogen (SUN; 17.4 mg/dL, 0.57), c-glutamyltransferase (GGT; 66.4 IU/L, 4.36), gamma globulins (GG; 1.5 g/dL, 0.07), and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1; 253.6 ng/mL, 9.59). Seroprevalences were as follows: brucellosis (Brucella abortus; 3%), bovine-respiratory syncytial virus (3%), bovine-viral-diarrhea virus type 1 (25%), infectious-bovine rhinotracheitis (58%), and bovine parainfluenza-3 (32%). Serum urea nitrogen, GGT, GG, and IGF-1 varied with year; T4, SUN, andGGvaried with age (P ≤ 0.01); and SUN varied by capture area (P=0.02). Annual survival was 0.22 (SE=0.035, n=149) and varied by calving area but not year. Neonates captured in the Stephens Creek/Mammoth area of Yellowstone National Park, USA, had annual survival rates \u3e3X higher (0.54) than those captured in the Lamar Valley area (0.17), likely due to the higher predator density in Lamar Valley. Summer survival (20 weeks after radiotagging) was 0.29 (SE=0.05, n=116), and calving area, absolute deviation from median birth date, and GG were important predictors of summer survival. Survival during winter (Nov–Apr) was 0.90 (SE=0.05, n=42), and it did not vary by calving area or year. Sixty-nine percent (n=104) of calves died within the first year of life, 24% (n=36) survived their first year, and 7% (n=11) had unknown fates. Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and black bears (Ursus americanus) accounted for 58–60% (n = 60–62) of deaths, and wolves accounted for 14–17% (n = 15–18). Summer predation (95% of summer deaths) increased, and winter malnutrition (0% of winter deaths) decreased, compared with a similar study during 1987–1990 (72% and 58%, respectively). Physiological factors (e.g., low levels of GG) may predispose calves to predation. Also, the increase in bear numbers since wolf restoration and spatial components finer than the northern range should be considered when trying to determine the causes of the northern Yellowstone elk decline. This is the first study to document the predation impacts from reintroduced wolves on elk calf mortality in an ecosystem already containing established populations of 4 other major predators (i.e., grizzly and black bears, cougars [Puma concolor], and coyotes [Canis latrans]). The results are relevant to resource managers of the Yellowstone ecosystem in understanding the dynamics of the elk population, in providing harvest quota recommendations for local elk hunts to the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service regarding wolf and grizzly bear recovery, and to all areas worldwide where predators are increasing, by providing managers with information about potential carnivore impacts on elk populations. Hemos realizado un estudio de 3 an˜os (may 2003–abr 2006) sobre la mortalidad de las crı´as de wapiti (Cervus elaphus) en el norte de Yellowstone para determinar las causas del descenso del reclutamiento (de 33 a 13 crı´as /100 hembras adultas) tras la restauracio´n del lobo (Canis lupus). Hemos capturado, marcado con radiotransmisores y evaluado las caracterı´sticas de la sangre y la seroprevalencia de los anticuerpos a enfermedades de 151 crı´as ≤ 6dı´as (68M:83H). Las concentraciones (x, SE) de los indicadores del estado potencial de salud fueron: tiroxina (T4; 13.8 µg/dL, 0.43), nitro´geno de urea en suero (SUN; 17.4 mg/dL, 0.57), c-glutamiltransferasa (GGT; 66.4 IU/L, 4.36), gamma globulinas (GG; 1.5 g/dL, 0.07) y factor de crecimiento insulinoide tipo 1 (IGF-1; 253.6 ng/mL, 9.59). Las seroprevalencias fueron: brucelosis (Brucella abortus; 3%), virus respiratorio sincitial bovino (3%), virus de la diarrea viral bovina tipo 1 (25%), rinotraqueı´tis infecciosa bovina (58%) y parainfluenza bovina tipo 3 (32%). El SUN, la GGT, las GG y el IGF-1 variaron con el an˜o; la T4, el SUN y las GG variaron con la edad (P≤0.01); y el SUN vario´ con el a´rea de captura (P=0.02). La supervivencia anual fue del 0.22 (SE=0.035, n=149) y vario´ con la zona de reproduccio´n pero no con el an˜o. Los neonatos capturados en la zona de Stephens Creek/Mammoth del Parque Nacional de Yellowstone, EE.UU., tuvieron tasas de supervivencia anual ma´s de 3 veces superiores (0.54) a las de los capturados en la zona del valle de Lamar (0.17), presumiblemente por la mayor densidad de predadores en el valle de Lamar. La supervivencia estival (20 semanas despue´s del radiomarcaje) fue 0.29 (SE=0.05, n=116); la zona de partos, la desviacio´n absoluta de la mediana de la fecha de nacimiento y lasGGfueron predictores importantes de la supervivencia estival. La supervivencia durante el invierno (nov–abr) fue 0.90 (SE=0.05, n=42) y no vario´ con la zona de partos o con el an˜o. El 69% (n=104) de las crı´as murieron antes de cumplir un an˜o, el 24% (n=36) sobrevivieron ma´s de un an˜o y se desconoce el destino del 7% (n=11). Los osos grizzly (Ursus arctos) y los osos negros (Ursus americanus) fueron responsables del 58–60% (n=60– 62) de las muertes, y los lobos, del 14–17% (n=15–18). La predacio´n estival (95% de las muertes en verano) aumento´, y la malnutricio´n en invierno (0% de las muertes en invierno) disminuyo´ en comparacio´n con un estudio similar realizado durante 1987–1990 (72%y 58%, respectivamente). Los factores fisiolo´gicos (bajos niveles de GG) quiza´ predisponen a las crı´as a ser predadas. Adema´s, el aumento de la poblacio´n de osos desde la restauracio´n del lobo y algunos componentes espaciales ma´s sutiles en las montan˜as septentrionales deberı´an ser considerados al tratar de determinar las causas del declive del wapiti en el norte de Yellowstone. Este es el primer estudio que describe el impacto que la predacio´n de lobos reintroducidos tiene sobre la mortalidad de las crı´as de wapiti en un ecosistema donde ya existen poblaciones establecidas de otros 4 grandes predadores (osos grizzly y negro, pumas [Puma concolor] y coyotes [Canis latrans]). Los resultados son relevantes para los gestores de recursos del ecosistema de Yellowstone porque ayudan a comprender la dina´mica de las poblaciones de wapiti; aportan recomendaciones al Departamento de Pesca, Vida Silvestre y Parques de Montana para decidir cuotas de extraccio´n de wapiti en las cacerı´as locales, al Servicio de Pesca y Vida Silvestre de los Estados Unidos en relacio´n a la recuperacio´n del lobo y el oso grizzly; y ofrecen a los gestores informacio´n acerca de los impactos potenciales de los carnı´voros sobre las poblaciones de wapiti en todas las zonas del mundo donde los predadores esta´n aumentando. Nous avons re´alise´ une e´tude de 3 ans (mai 2003–avr 2006) portant sur les faons des wapitis du nord de Yellowstone afin de de´terminer les causes du de´clin de recrutement (c.-a`-d. de 33 a` 13 faons/100 femelles adultes) qui a suivi la re´introduction du loup (Canis lupus). Nous avons capture´, pre´leve´ un e´chantillon sanguin et muni d’un radioe´metteur 151 faons de ≤ 6 jours (68M:83F). Les concentrations (x, ET) d’indicateurs potentiels de condition physique e´taient: thyroxine (T4; 13.8 µg/dL, 0.43), azote ure´ique se´rique (AUS; 17.4 mg/dL, 0.57), c-glutamyltransfe´rase (GGT; 66.4 IU/L, 4.36), gamma globulines (GG; 1.5 g/dL, 0.07) et facteur de croissance insulinomime´tique de type 1 (FCI-1; 253.6 ng/mL, 9.59). La pre´valence se´rique d’anticorps e´tait: brucellose (Brucella abortus; 3%), virus syncitial respiratoire bovin (3%), virus diarrhe´ique bovin de type 1 (25%), rhinotrache´ite infectieuse bovine (58%) et parainfluenza-3 bovin (32%). L’azote ure´ique se´rique, la GGT, les GG et le FCI-1 ont varie´ entre les anne´es; la T4, l’AUS et les GG varie`rent en fonction de l’aˆge (P ≤ 0.01) et l’AUS en fonction du lieu de capture (P=0.02). Le taux annuel de survie atteignit 0.22 (ET=0.035, n=149) et varia en fonction de l’aire de mise bas mais non de l’anne´e. Les faons ne´s dans l’aire de Stephens Creek/Mammoth du parc national de Yellowstone, E ´ tats-Unis, posse´daient des taux annuels de survie plus de 3 fois supe´rieurs (0.54) a` ceux capture´s dans l’aire de Lamar Valley (0.17), vraisemblablement a` cause d’une densite´ de pre´dateurs plus e´leve´e au second endroit. La survie estivale moyenne (20 semaines suivant le marquage) e´tait de 0.29 (ET=0.05, n=116) et elle de´pendait fortement du lieu de mise bas, de la de´viation absolue de la date de naissance me´diane et de la concentration de GG. La survie hivernale (nov–avr) atteignait 0.90 (ET=0.05, n =42) et ne variait ni en fonction du lieu de naissance ou de l’anne´e. Soixante-neuf pourcent (n=104) des faons moururent durant leur premie`re anne´e, 24% (n =36) surve´curent et le sort de 7% (n=11) demeura inconnu. Les ours grizzlys (Ursus arctos) et les ours noirs (Ursus americanus) furent responsables de 58–60% des mortalite´s (n=60–62), contre 14–17% pour les loups (n=15–18). La pre´dation estivale (95% des mortalite´s) augmenta et la malnutrition hivernale (0% des mortalite´s) diminua en comparaison avec une e´tude similaire re´alise´e de 1987 a` 1990 (72% et 58%, respectivement). Des facteurs physiologiques (c.-a`-d. des bas niveaux de GG) pourraient pre´disposer les faons a` la pre´dation. Par ailleurs, l’accroissement du nombre d’ours depuis la re´introduction du loup et des composantes spatiales plus fines que celles de notre e´tude devraient eˆtre pris en compte en tentant de de´terminer les causes du de´clin du nombre de wapitis du nord de Yellowstone. Notre e´tude s’ave`re la premie`re a` documenter les impacts de la pre´dation de loups re´introduits dans un e´cosyste`me contenant des populations e´tablies de 4 pre´dateurs majeurs (c.-a`-d., les ours grizzlys et noirs, les cougars [Puma concolor], les coyotes [Canis latrans]). Nos re´sultats concernent les gestionnaires de l’e´cosyste`me de Yellowstone puisqu’ils permettent de comprendre la dynamique de la population de wapitis, qu’ils fournissent des recommandations pour les chasses locales au Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks et d’autres, pour la gestion du loup et de l’ours grizzly, au U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Nos re´sultats concernent e´galement toutes les re´gions du monde ou` les pre´dateurs s’accroissent puisqu’ils fournissent aux gestionnaires des informations concernant l’impact potentiel des carnivores sur les populations de grands herbivores

Finite-Size Effects in the Interface of 3D Ising Model

The interface between domains of opposite magnetization in the 3D Ising model near the critical temperature displays universal finite-size effects which can be described in terms of a gaussian model of capillary waves. It turns out that these finite-size corrections depend rather strongly on the shape of the lattice. This prediction, which has no adjustable parameters, is tested and accurately verified for various lattice shapes by means of numerical simulations with a cluster algorithm. This supports also a long-standing conjecture on the finite-size effects in Wilson loops of Lattice Gauge Theories.Comment: 13 pages, plain latex, two figures not included, sorry DFTT 68/9

The ecology of chronic wasting disease in wildlife

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.Prions are misfolded infectious proteins responsible for a group of fatal neurodegenerative diseases termed transmissible spongiform encephalopathy or prion diseases. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is the prion disease with the highest spillover potential, affecting at least seven Cervidae (deer) species. The zoonotic potential of CWD is inconclusive and cannot be ruled out. A risk of infection for other domestic and wildlife species is also plausible. Here, we review the current status of the knowledge with respect to CWD ecology in wildlife. Our current understanding of the geographic distribution of CWD lacks spatial and temporal detail, does not consider the biogeography of infectious diseases, and is largely biased by sampling based on hunters’ cooperation and funding available for each region. Limitations of the methods used for data collection suggest that the extent and prevalence of CWD in wildlife is underestimated. If the zoonotic potential of CWD is confirmed in the short term, as suggested by recent results obtained in experimental animal models, there will be limited accurate epidemiological data to inform public health. Research gaps in CWD prion ecology include the need to identify specific biological characteristics of potential CWD reservoir species that better explain susceptibility to spillover, landscape and climate configurations that are suitable for CWD transmission, and the magnitude of sampling bias in our current understanding of CWD distribution and risk. Addressing these research gaps will help anticipate novel areas and species where CWD spillover is expected, which will inform control strategies. From an ecological perspective, control strategies could include assessing restoration of natural predators of CWD reservoirs, ultrasensitive CWD detection in biotic and abiotic reservoirs, and deer density and landscape modification to reduce CWD spread and prevalence

Multi-Grid Monte Carlo via XYXY Embedding. II. Two-Dimensional SU(3)SU(3) Principal Chiral Model

We carry out a high-precision simulation of the two-dimensional $SU(3)$ principal chiral model at correlation lengths $\xi$ up to $\sim 4 \times 10^5$, using a multi-grid Monte Carlo (MGMC) algorithm and approximately one year of Cray C-90 CPU time. We extrapolate the finite-volume Monte Carlo data to infinite volume using finite-size-scaling theory, and we discuss carefully the systematic and statistical errors in this extrapolation. We then compare the extrapolated data to the renormalization-group predictions. The deviation from asymptotic scaling, which is $\approx 12$ at $\xi \sim 25$, decreases to $\approx 2$ at $\xi \sim 4 \times 10^5$. We also analyze the dynamic critical behavior of the MGMC algorithm using lattices up to $256 \times 256$, finding the dynamic critical exponent $z_{int,{\cal M}^2} \approx 0.45 \pm 0.02$ (subjective 68% confidence interval). Thus, for this asymptotically free model, critical slowing-down is greatly reduced compared to local algorithms, but not completely eliminated.Comment: self-unpacking archive including .tex, .sty and .ps files; 126 pages including all figure

A Numerical Transfer-Matrix Study of Surface-Tension Anisotropy in Ising Models on Square and Cubic Lattices

We compute by numerical transfer-matrix methods the surface free energy $\tau(T),$ the surface stiffness coefficient $\kappa(T),$ and the single-step free energy $s(T)$ for Ising ferromagnets with $(\infty \times L)$ square-lattice and $(\infty \times L \times M)$ cubic-lattice geometries, into which an interface is introduced by imposing antiperiodic or plus/minus boundary conditions in one transverse direction. These quantities occur in expansions of the angle-dependent surface tension, either for rough or for smooth interfaces. The finite-size scaling behavior of the interfacial correlation length provides the means of investigating $\kappa(T)$ and $s(T).$ The resulting transfer-matrix estimates are fully consistent with previous series and Monte Carlo studies, although current computational technology does not permit transfer-matrix studies of sufficiently large systems to show quantitative improvement over the previous estimates.Comment: 40 pages, 17 figures available on request. RevTeX version 2.

Disease progression in Plasmodium knowlesi malaria is linked to variation in invasion gene family members.

Emerging pathogens undermine initiatives to control the global health impact of infectious diseases. Zoonotic malaria is no exception. Plasmodium knowlesi, a malaria parasite of Southeast Asian macaques, has entered the human population. P. knowlesi, like Plasmodium falciparum, can reach high parasitaemia in human infections, and the World Health Organization guidelines for severe malaria list hyperparasitaemia among the measures of severe malaria in both infections. Not all patients with P. knowlesi infections develop hyperparasitaemia, and it is important to determine why. Between isolate variability in erythrocyte invasion, efficiency seems key. Here we investigate the idea that particular alleles of two P. knowlesi erythrocyte invasion genes, P. knowlesi normocyte binding protein Pknbpxa and Pknbpxb, influence parasitaemia and human disease progression. Pknbpxa and Pknbpxb reference DNA sequences were generated from five geographically and temporally distinct P. knowlesi patient isolates. Polymorphic regions of each gene (approximately 800 bp) were identified by haplotyping 147 patient isolates at each locus. Parasitaemia in the study cohort was associated with markers of disease severity including liver and renal dysfunction, haemoglobin, platelets and lactate, (r = ≥ 0.34, p =  <0.0001 for all). Seventy-five and 51 Pknbpxa and Pknbpxb haplotypes were resolved in 138 (94%) and 134 (92%) patient isolates respectively. The haplotypes formed twelve Pknbpxa and two Pknbpxb allelic groups. Patients infected with parasites with particular Pknbpxa and Pknbpxb alleles within the groups had significantly higher parasitaemia and other markers of disease severity. Our study strongly suggests that P. knowlesi invasion gene variants contribute to parasite virulence. We focused on two invasion genes, and we anticipate that additional virulent loci will be identified in pathogen genome-wide studies. The multiple sustained entries of this diverse pathogen into the human population must give cause for concern to malaria elimination strategists in the Southeast Asian region

Challenges for Allergy Diagnosis in Regions with Complex Pollen Exposures

Over the past few decades, significant scientific progress has influenced clinical allergy practice. The biological standardization of extracts was followed by the massive identification and characterization of new allergens and their progressive use as diagnostic tools including allergen micro arrays that facilitate the simultaneous testing of more than 100 allergen components. Specific diagnosis is the basis of allergy practice and is always aiming to select the best therapeutic or avoidance intervention. As a consequence, redundant or irrelevant information might be adding unnecessary cost and complexity to daily clinical practice. A rational use of the different diagnostic alternatives would allow a significant improvement in the diagnosis and treatment of allergic patients, especially for those residing in complex pollen exposure areas