Simulating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions limiting transmission in COVID-19 epidemics using a membrane computing model

[EN] Epidemics caused by microbial organisms are part of the natural phenomena of increasing biological complexity. The heterogeneity and constant variability of hosts, in terms of age, immunological status, family structure, lifestyle, work activities, social and leisure habits, daily division of time and other demographic characteristics make it extremely difficult to predict the evolution of epidemics. Such prediction is, however, critical for implementing intervention measures in due time and with appropriate intensity. General conclusions should be precluded, given that local parameters dominate the flow of local epidemics. Membrane computing models allows us to reproduce the objects (viruses and hosts) and their interactions (stochastic but also with defined probabilities) with an unprecedented level of detail. Our LOIMOS model helps reproduce the demographics and social aspects of a hypothetical town of 10 320 inhabitants in an average European country where COVID-19 is imported from the outside. The above-mentioned characteristics of hosts and their lifestyle are minutely considered. For the data in the Hospital and the ICU we took advantage of the observations at the Nursery Intensive Care Unit of the Consortium University General Hospital, Valencia, Spain (included as author). The dynamics of the epidemics are reproduced and include the effects on viral transmission of innate and acquired immunity at various ages. The model predicts the consequences of delaying the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (between 15 and 45 days after the first reported cases) and the effect of those interventions on infection and mortality rates (reducing transmission by 20, 50 and 80%) in immunological response groups. The lockdown for the elderly population as a single intervention appears to be effective. This modeling exercise exemplifies the application of membrane computing for designing appropriate multilateral interventions in epidemic situations.MC and FB were sponsored by the Projects COV20 00067 of the Program SARS-COV-2 and COVID-19 infection of the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion of Spain, CB06/02/0053 of the Centro de Investigacion Biom edica en Red de Epidemiolog¿a y Salud Publica (CIBERESP), and the Regional Government of Madrid (InGeMICS-B2017/BMD-3691). For JCG, this study was partially founded by the Autonomous Community of Madrid, Spain (COVID-19 Grant, 2020) and the Ramon y Cajal Institute for Health Research (IRYCIS), Madrid, Spain. For AM, this study was supported by grants from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (PID2019-105969GB-I00), the government of Valencia (project Prometeo/2018/A/133) and cofinanced by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF).Campos Frances, M.; Sempere Luna, JM.; Galán, JC.; Moya, A.; Llorens, C.; De-Los-Angeles, C.; Baquero-Artigao, F.... (2021). Simulating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions limiting transmission in COVID-19 epidemics using a membrane computing model. microLife. 2:1-14. https://doi.org/10.1093/femsml/uqab011S114

Interferon-Gamma Release Assays Differentiate Between Mycobacterium avium Complex and Tuberculous Lymphadenitis in Children

OBJECTIVES: To assess the performance of interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) in the differential diagnosis between Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) and tuberculosis (TB) in children affected with subacute/chronic submandibular/cervical lymphadenitis. STUDY DESIGN: Multicenter observational study comparing children with microbiologically-confirmed MAC lymphadenitis from the European NontuberculouS MycoBacterial Lymphadenitis in childrEn (ENSeMBLE) study with children with TB lymphadenitis from the Spanish Network for the Study of Pediatric TB (pTBred) database. RESULTS: Overall, 78 patients with MAC and 34 with TB lymphadenitis were included. Among MAC cases, 44/74 (59.5%) had positive tuberculin skin test (TST) results at the 5 mm cutoff, compared with 32/33 (97%) TB cases (p<0.001); at the 10 mm cutoff TST results were positive in 23/74 (31.1%) vs. 26/31 (83.9%), respectively (P < .001). IGRA results were positive in only 1/32 (3.1%) MAC cases who had undergone IGRA testing, compared with 21/23 (91.3%) TB cases (p<0.001). Agreement between TST and IGRA results was poor in MAC (23.3%;κ=0.017), but good in TB cases (95.6%;κ=0.646). IGRAs had a specificity of 96.9% (95%CI:84.3-99.8%), positive predictive value (PPV) of 95.4% (95%CI:78.2-99.8%), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 93.9% (95%CI:80.4-98.9%) for TB lymphadenitis. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to TST, IGRAs have high specificity, NPV and PPV for TB lymphadenitis in children with subacute/chronic lymphadenopathy, and consequently can help to discriminate between TB and MAC disease. Therefore, IGRAs are useful tools in the diagnostic work-up of children with lymphadenopathy, particularly when culture- and PCR-results are negative

Simulating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions limiting transmission in COVID-19 epidemics using a membrane computing model

Epidemics caused by microbial organisms are part of the natural phenomena of increasing biological complexity. The heterogeneity and constant variability of hosts, in terms of age, immunological status, family structure, lifestyle, work activities, social and leisure habits, daily division of time, and other demographic characteristics make it extremely difficult to predict the evolution of epidemics. Such prediction is, however, critical for implementing intervention measures in due time and with appropriate intensity. General conclusions should be precluded, given that local parameters dominate the flow of local epidemics. Membrane computing models allows us to reproduce the objects (viruses, hosts) and their interactions (stochastic but also with defined probabilities) with an unprecedented level of detail. Our LOIMOS model helps reproduce the demographics and social aspects of a hypothetical town of 10,320 inhabitants in an average European country where COVID-19 is imported from the outside. The above-mentioned characteristics of hosts and their lifestyle are minutely considered. The dynamics of the epidemics are reproduced and include the effects on viral transmission of innate and acquired immunity at various ages. The model predicts the consequences of delaying the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (between 15 and 45 days after the first reported cases) and the effect of those interventions on infection and mortality rates (reducing transmission by 20%, 50%, and 80%) in immunological response groups. The lockdown for the elderly population as a single intervention appears to be effective. This modelling exercise exemplifies the application of membrane computing for designing appropriate interventions in epidemic situations.MC and FB were sponsored by the Projects COV20_00067 of the Program SARS-COV-2 and COVID-19 infection of the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación of Spain, CB06/02/0053 of the Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), and the Regional Government of Madrid (InGeMICS-B2017/BMD-3691). For JCG, this study was partially founded by the Autonomous Community of Madrid, Spain (COVID-19 Grant, 2020) and the Ramón y Cajal Institute for Health Research (IRYCIS), Madrid, Spain. For AM, this study was supported by grants from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (PID2019-105969GB-I00), the government of Valencia (project Prometeo/2018/A/133) and cofinanced by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF).N

Position statement of the Spanish Association of Paediatrics-Spanish Society of Paediatric Infectious Diseases (AEP-SEIP) on the treatment of multidrug-resistant bacterial infections Documento de posicionamiento de la Asociación Española de Pediatría-Sociedad Española de Infectología Pediátrica (AEP-SEIP) sobre el tratamiento de las infecciones por bacterias multirresistentes

A progressive increase in the incidence of infections caused by multidrug-resistant microorganisms is being reported. Among these resistant microorganisms, the main threats are extended-spectrum β-lactamase-, AmpC-, and carbapenemase-producing Gram-negative bacilli, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium. To address this important problem, it is essential to establish pediatric Antimicrobial Stewardship programs, perform active epidemiological surveillance and develop an adequate infection control policy. The therapeutic approach of these infections is often complex, frequently requiring antibiotics with less experience in children. In this position document made by the Spanish Association of Pediatrics and the Spanish Society of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, the epidemiology and treatment of these infections are reviewed according to the best available evidence

Position statement of the Spanish Association of Paediatrics-Spanish Society of Paediatric Infectious Diseases (AEP-SEIP) on the treatment of multidrug-resistant bacterial infections Documento de posicionamiento de la Asociación Española de Pediatría-Sociedad Española de Infectología Pediátrica (AEP-SEIP) sobre el tratamiento de las infecciones por bacterias multirresistentes

A progressive increase in the incidence of infections caused by multidrug-resistant microorganisms is being reported. Among these resistant microorganisms, the main threats are extended-spectrum β-lactamase-, AmpC-, and carbapenemase-producing Gram-negative bacilli, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium. To address this important problem, it is essential to establish pediatric Antimicrobial Stewardship programs, perform active epidemiological surveillance and develop an adequate infection control policy. The therapeutic approach of these infections is often complex, frequently requiring antibiotics with less experience in children. In this position document made by the Spanish Association of Pediatrics and the Spanish Society of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, the epidemiology and treatment of these infections are reviewed according to the best available evidence