Predicting soil organic carbon in a small farm system using in situ spectral measurements and the random forest regression

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science (Geographical Information Sciences and Remote Sensing) Johannesburg, 2017Soil organic carbon is considered as the most determining indicator of soil fertility. The purpose of this research was to predict the soil organic carbon in the Mokhotlong region, eastern of Lesotho using in situ spectral measurements and random forest regression. Soil reflectance spectra were acquired by a portable field spectrometer. The performance of random forest regression was assessed by comparing it with one of the most popular models in spectroscopy, partial least square regression. Laboratory spectroscopy measurements of the soil samples were analysed for assessing the accuracy of in situ spectroscopy based-models. The effect of the Savitzky−Golay first derivative in improving partial least square regression and random forest regression in both spectral data was also assessed. The results indicated that the random forest regression could accurately predict the soil organic carbon contents on an independent dataset using in situ spectroscopy data (RPD = 3.77, Rp2= 0.88, RMSEP = 0.64%). The overall best predictive model was achieved with the derivative laboratory spectral data using random forest with the optimum number of key wavelengths (RPD = 3.77, Rp2= 0.88, RMSEP = 0.64%). In contrast, partial least square regression was likely to overfit the calibration dataset. Important wavelengths to predict soil organic contents were localised around the visible range (400-700 nm). An implication of this research is that soil organic carbon can accurately be estimated using derivative in situ spectroscopy measurements and random forest regression with key wavelengths.MT 201

Blessing and curse of bioclimatic variables: a comparison of different calculation schemes and datasets for species distribution modeling within the extended Mediterranean area

Bioclimatic variables (BCVs) are the most widely used predictors within the field of species distribution modeling, but recent studies imply that BCVs alone are not sufficient to describe these limits. Unfortunately, the most popular database, WorldClim, offers only a limited selection of bioclimatological predictors; thus, other climatological datasets should be considered, and, for data consistency, the BCVs should also be derived from the respective datasets. Here, we investigate how well the BCVs are represented by different datasets for the extended Mediterranean area within the period 1970–2020, how different calculation schemes affect the representation of BCVs, and how deviations among the datasets differ regionally. We consider different calculation schemes for quarters/months, the annual mean temperature (BCV-1), and the maximum temperature of the warmest month (BCV-5). Additionally, we analyzed the effect of different temporal resolutions for BCV-1 and BCV-5. Differences resulting from different calculation schemes are presented for ERA5-Land. Selected BCVs are analyzed to show differences between WorldClim, ERA5-Land, E-OBS, and CRU. Our results show that (a) differences between the two calculation schemes for BCV-1 diminish as the temporal resolution decreases, while the differences for BCV-5 increase; (b) with respect to the definition of the respective month/quarter, intra-annual shifts induced by the calculation schemes can have substantially different effects on the BCVs; (c) all datasets represent the different BCVs similarly, but with partly large differences in some subregions; and (d) the largest differences occur when specific month/quarters are defined by precipitation. In summary, (a) since the definition of BCVs matches different calculation schemes, transparent communication of the BCVs calculation schemes is required; (b) the calculation, integration, or elimination of BCVs has to be examined carefully for each dataset, region, period, or species; and (c) the evaluated datasets provide, except in some areas, a consistent representation of BCVs within the extended Mediterranean region

Auswirkungen von Klimavariabilität und Veränderungen auf die Mais (ZeaZea maysmays) Produktion im tropischen Afrika

Climate change is undeniable and constitutes one of the major threats of the 21st century. It impacts sectors of our society, usually negatively, and is likely to worsen towards the middle and end of the century. The agricultural sector is of particular concern, for it is the primary source of food and is strongly dependent on the weather. Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate change on African agriculture because of the continent’s high vulnerability, which is mainly due to its low adaptation capac- ity. Several studies have been implemented to evaluate the impact of climate change on this continent. The results are sometimes controversial since the studies are based on different approaches, climate models and crop yield datasets. This study attempts to contribute substantially to this large topic by suggesting specific types of climate pre- dictors. The study focuses on tropical Africa and its maize yield. Maize is considered to be the most important crop in this region. To estimate the effect of climate change on maize yield, the study began by developing a robust cross-validated multiple linear regression model, which related climate predictors and maize yield. This statistical trans- fer function is reputed to be less prone to overfitting and multicollinearity problems. It is capable of selecting robust predictors, which have a physical meaning. Therefore, the study combined: large-scale predictors, which were derived from the principal component analysis of the monthly precipitation and temperature; traditional local-scale predictors, mainly, the mean precipitation, mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature; and the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), derived from the specific crop (maize) water balance model. The projected maize-yield change is forced by a regional climate model (RCM) REMO under two emission scenarios: high emission scenario (RCP8.5) and mid-range emission scenario (RCP4.5). The different effects of these groups of predictors in projecting the future maize-yield changes were also assessed. Furthermore, the study analysed the impact of climate change on the global WRSI. The results indicate that almost 27 % of the interannual variability of maize production of the entire region is explained by climate variables. The influence of climate predictors on maize-yield production is more pronounced in West Africa, reaching 55 % in some areas. The model projection indicates that the maize yield in the entire region is expected to decrease by the middle of the century under an RCP8.5 emission scenario, and from the middle of the century to the end of the century, the production will slightly recover but will remain negative (around -10 %). However, in some regions of East Africa, a slight increase in maize yield is expected. The maize-yield projection under RCP4.5 remains relatively unchanged compared to the baseline period (1982-2016). The results further indicate that large-scale predictors are the most critical drivers of the global year-to-year maize-yield variability, and ENSO – which is highly correlated with the most important predictor (PC2) – seems to be the physical process underlying this variability. The effects of local predictors are more pronounced in the eastern parts of the region. The impact of the future climate change on WRSI reveals that the availability of maize water is expected to decrease everywhere, except in some parts of eastern Africa.Weil die Folgen des Klimawandels die Lebensgrundlagen aller Lebewesen beeinträchtigen, ist der Klimawandel ein sehr relevantes Thema des 21. Jahrhunderts. Seine negativen Effekte betreffen bereits viele Sektoren unserer Gesellschaft und die Prognosen zeigen, dass sich die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels Mitte und Ende dieses Jahrhunderts ver- schärfen werden. Die Landwirtschaft ist besonders betroffen, denn sie ist sehr abhängig vom Klima. Da die Landwirtschaft als Hauptnahrungsquelle der Menschen gilt, ist es erforderlich sich mit den Problemen des Klimawandels rechtzeitig zu beschäftigen, um in der Zukunft die Ernährung der Menschheit gewährleisten zu können. Viele Forscher beschäftigen sich mit den Folgen des Klimawandels in der Landwirtschaft. Besonders in Afrika wurde viel geforscht, weil die Landwirtschaft in Afrika sich technisch schlecht anpassen kann, um die Schwierigkeiten, die mit dem Klimawandel einhergehen, zu über- winden. Mehrere Studien wurden durchgeführt, um die Auswirkungen des Klimawan- dels in Afrika zu bewerten. Aufgrund der unterschiedlichen verwendeten statistischen Methoden, Modellierungen der Umweltprozesse oder Ertragsdaten sind die Ergebnisse teilweise kontrovers. Diese Studie versucht, einen wesentlichen Beitrag zum Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Landwirtschaft in Westafrika zu leisten, indem sie spezifis- che Methoden vorschlägt, um das Klima der Zukunft projizieren zu können. Diese Studie behandelt Maiserträge in den Tropen Afrikas, da Mais dort die wichtigste Nutzpflanze ist. Um die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf den Maisertrag abzuschätzen, wurde ein Regressionsmodell (aus dem Englischen: robust cross-validated multiple) entwickelt, das Klimaprädiktoren und Maiserträge koppelt. Diese entwickelte statistische Übertra- gungsfunktion ist zuverlässiger bei Schwierigkeiten mit der Überanpassung und der Mul- tikollinearität. Außerdem ist sie auch in der Lage robuste Prädiktoren mit physikalischer Bedeutung auszuwählen. Deshalb wurden in der Studie großräumige und lokale Prädik- toren kombiniert. Erstere entstammen der Analyse der Komponenten des monatlichen Niederschlags und der Temperatur, letztere basieren basieren auf den mittleren und Ex- tremtemperaturen sowie dem mittleren Niederschlag. Zusätzlich zu den Prädiktoren wurde ein Index der Wasserbedarfsdeckung (Water Requirement Satisfaction Index, WRSI) verwendet, der auf einem Wasserhaushaltsmodell der Nutzpflanzen basiert. Die erwartete Mais-Ertragsänderung wird mithilfe eines regionalen Klimamodells (RCM) REMO für die Emissionsszenarien RCP8.5 und RCP4.5 simuliert. Die einzelnen Effekte der Prädiktoren- Gruppen bei der Prognose der zukünftigen Mais-Ertragsänderungen wurden ebenfalls bewertet. Darüber hinaus analysierte die Studie die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf den WSRI. Durchschnittlich zeigen die Ergebnisse eine jährliche Maisproduktionsän- derung von ca. 27 % in der gesamten Region. Diese Änderung, die in Westafrika mit ca. 55 % stärker ausgeprägt ist, ist eine Folge des Klimawandels. Die Simulationen des Mod- ells anhand von RCP8.5-Emissionsszenario zeigen auch, dass der Maisertrag der gesamten Region voraussichtlich bis Mitte des Jahrhunderts abnehmen wird. Danach findet eine geringe Ertragserhöhung statt, die jedoch um ca. 10 % unter der ursprünglichen Menge liegt. Im Gegensatz zu Westafrika wird in einigen Regionen Ostafrikas wird ein leichter Anstieg des Maisertrags simuliert. Die Mais-Ertragsprognose für die gesamte Region mittels RCP4.5 bleibt relativ unverändert im Vergleich zum ursprünglichen Ertrag. Die Ergebnisse zeigen weiterhin, dass die großräumigen Prädiktoren die wichtigste Rolle bei den globalen jährlichen Maisertragsschwankungen spielen. ENSO ist stark mit dem wichtigsten Prädiktor korreliert, was auf den physikalischen Prozess hinweist, der diese Ertragsänderung erklärt. Die Relevanz der lokalen Prädiktoren ist in den östlichen Re- gionen Afrikas stärker ausgeprägt. Sie beeinflussen den WRSI, sodass der Maisertrag im Verhältnis zur Wasserverfügbarkeit voraussichtlich überall abnehmen wird. Ausgenom- men sind einigen Regionen Ostafrikas

Predicting Soil Organic Carbon Content Using Hyperspectral Remote Sensing in a Degraded Mountain Landscape in Lesotho

Soil organic carbon constitutes an important indicator of soil fertility. The purpose of this study was to predict soil organic carbon content in the mountainous terrain of eastern Lesotho, southern Africa, which is an area of high endemic biodiversity as well as an area extensively used for small-scale agriculture. An integrated field and laboratory approach was undertaken, through measurements of reflectance spectra of soil using an Analytical Spectral Device (ASD) FieldSpec® 4 optical sensor. Soil spectra were collected on the land surface under field conditions and then on soil in the laboratory, in order to assess the accuracy of field spectroscopy-based models. The predictive performance of two different statistical models (random forest and partial least square regression) was compared. Results show that random forest regression can most accurately predict the soil organic carbon contents on an independent dataset using the field spectroscopy data. In contrast, the partial least square regression model overfits the calibration dataset. Important wavelengths to predict soil organic contents were localised around the visible range (400–700 nm). This study shows that soil organic carbon can be most accurately estimated using derivative field spectroscopy measurements and random forest regression

Heavy metals in children's blood from the rural region of Popokabaka, Democratic Republic of Congo: a cross-sectional study and spatial analysis

Exposure to heavy metals can affect cell differentiation, neurocognitive development, and growth during early life, even in low doses. Little is known about heavy metal exposure and its relationship with nutrition outcomes in non-mining rural environments. We carried out a community-based cross-sectional study to describe the distribution of four heavy metal concentrations [arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and mercury (Hg)] in the serum of a representative population of children aged 12 to 59 months old from the rural region of Popokabaka, Democratic Republic of Congo. The four metals were measured in 412 samples using inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry (ICP–MS). Limits of detection (LoD) and quantification (LoQ) were set. Percentiles were reported. Statistical and geospatial bivariate analyses were performed to identify relationships with other nutrition outcomes. Arsenic was quantified in 59.7%, while Cd, Hg, and Pb were quantified in less than 10%, all without toxicities. The arsenic level was negatively associated with the zinc level, while the Hg level was positively associated with the selenium level. This common detection of As in children of Popokabaka requires attention, and urgent drinking water exploration and intervention for the profit of the Popokabaka community should be considered.publishedVersio

Zero-Dose Childhood Vaccination Status in Rural Democratic Republic of Congo: Quantifying the Relative Impact of Geographic Accessibility and Attitudes toward Vaccination.

Despite efforts to increase childhood vaccination coverage in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), approximately 20% of infants have not started their routine immunization schedule (zero-dose). The present study aims to evaluate the relative influence of geospatial access to health facilities and caregiver perceptions of vaccines on the vaccination status of children in rural DRC. Pooled data from two consecutive nationwide immunization surveys conducted in 2022 and 2023 were used. Geographic accessibility was assessed based on travel time from households to their nearest health facility using the AccessMod 5 model. Caregiver attitudes to vaccination were assessed using the survey question How good do you think vaccines are for your child? We used logistic regression to assess the relationship between geographic accessibility, caregiver attitudes toward vaccination, and their childs vaccination status. Geographic accessibility to health facilities was high in rural DRC, with 88% of the population living within an hours walk to a health facility. Responding that vaccines are Bad, Very Bad, or Dont Know relative to Very Good for children was associated with a many-fold increased odds of a zero-dose status (ORs 69.3 [95%CI: 63.4-75.8]) compared to the odds for those living 60+ min from a health facility, relative to <5 min (1.3 [95%CI: 1.1-1.4]). Similar proportions of the population fell into these two at-risk categories. We did not find evidence of an interaction between caregiver attitude toward vaccination and travel time to care. While geographic access to health facilities is crucial, caregiver demand appears to be a more important driver in improving vaccination rates in rural DRC