Política presupuestaria y elecciones

El carácter cíclico de las elecciones ha originado el estudio del efecto que esta periodicidad puede ejercer sobre la política fiscal de los gobiernos, surgiendo así el análisis del Ciclo Político Presupuestario (CPP). El objetivo de este trabajo es realizar un repaso de la literatura existente sobre los cambios en la política presupuestaria con origen en las elecciones, motivados principalmente por un comportamiento oportunista de los gobernantes. Además se analizan cuestiones como los determinantes de la magnitud de los ciclos o su efecto sobre la reelección de los gobiernos. La literatura muestra que, además de incrementos en el gasto antes de las elecciones o recortes de impuestos, algunos gobernantes cambian la composición del gasto preelectoral con el objetivo de conseguir más votos. Sin embargo, este tipo de comportamientos oportunistas no siempre se traduce en una recompensa para los gobernantes. Asimismo, cabe destacar que factores tales como el nivel de desarrollo del país, el nivel de transparencia fiscal o la libertad de los medios de comunicación son algunos de los factores que pueden influir en el tamaño de los CPP, siendo fundamentalmente en las democracias más recientes, en donde la falta de información por parte de los votantes, hace que se produzcan este tipo de comportamientos oportunistas.The cyclical nature of elections has aroused interest in how the electoral calendar affects government fiscal policy, and has motivated analysis of the Political Budget Cycle (PBC). The aim of this paper is to provide a literature review, and to develop a database gathering the most relevant results on changes in fiscal policy originated by elections, primarily motivated by governments’ opportunistic behaviour. We also analyse issues such as what determines cycle magnitude or its effect on the probability of governments’ reelection. The literature shows that in addition to spending increases or tax cuts before elections, some governments change the composition of pre-election spending in an attempt to win more votes. However, this type of opportunistic behavior does not always bring rewards. The literature also reports that level of development of the country, level of fiscal transparency, and media freedom are some of the factors that can influence the length of the PBC. It is mainly in emerging democracies where the lack of information made available to voters leads to such opportunistic behaviour on the part of the government

La eficiencia de los municipios españoles durante el período de crisis

En este trabajo se analiza la eficiencia en costes de los gobiernos locales españoles durante el período de la crisis económica (2008-2012). Los resultados indican una mejora general de la eficiencia a lo largo del período, es decir, los gobiernos locales son más eficientes en tiempos de crisis. Asimismo, el análisis muestra que los niveles de eficiencia varían en función del tamaño de los gobiernos locales, siendo los municipios de mayor tamaño los más eficientes

Output complexity, environmental conditions, and the efficiency of municipalities

Over the last few years, many studies have analyzed the efficiency of local governments in different countries. An accurate definition of their output bundles—i.e., the services and facilities they provide to their constituencies—is essential to this research. However, several difficulties emerge in this task. First, since in most cases the law only establishes the minimum amount of services and facilities to provide, it may well be the case that some municipalities go beyond the legal minimum and, consequently, might have an uncertain effect on efficiency when compared to other municipalities which stick to the legal minimum. Second, municipalities face very different environmental conditions, which raises some doubts about the plausibility of an unconditional analysis. This study tackles these problems by proposing an analysis in which the efficiency of municipalities is evaluated after splitting them into clusters according to various criteria (output mix, environmental conditions, level of powers). We perform our estimations using order-m frontiers, given their robustness to outliers and immunity to the curse of dimensionality. We provide an application to Spanish municipalities, and results show that both output mix and, more especially, environmental conditions, should be controlled for, since efficiency differences between municipalities in different groups are notable

On the determinants of local government debt: Does one size fit all?

This paper analyzes the factors that directly influence levels of debt in Spanish local governments. Specifically, the main objective is to find out the extent to which indebtedness is originated by controllable factors that public managers can influence, or whether it hinges on other variables beyond managers’ control. The importance of this issue has intensified since the start of the crisis in 2007, due to the abrupt decline of revenues and, simultaneously, to the stagnation (or even increase) in the levels of costs facing these institutions face. Results can be explored from multiple perspectives, given that the set of explanatory factors is also multiple. However, the most striking result relates to the varying effect of each covariate depending on each municipality’s specific debt level, which suggests that economic policy recommendations should not be homogeneous across local governmen

Output complexity, environmental conditions, and the efficiency of municipalities: a robust approach

Over the last few years, many studies have analyzed the productive efficiency of local governments in different countries. An accurate definition of their output bundles -i.e., the services and facilities they provide to their constituencies- is essential to this research. However, several difficulties emerge in this task. First, since in most cases the law only establishes the minimum amount of services and facilities to provide, it may well be the case that some municipalities go beyond the legal minimum and, consequently, might be labeled as inefficient when compared to other municipalities which stick to the legal minimum. Second, municipalities face very different environmental conditions, which raises some doubts about the plausibility of an unconditional analysis. This study tackles these problems by proposing a metafrontier analysis in which the efficiency of municipalities is evaluated after splitting them into clusters according to various criteria (output mix, environmental conditions, size). We perform our estimations using order-m frontiers, given their robustness to outliers and immunity to the curse of dimensionality. We provide an application to Spanish municipalities, and results show that both output mix and, more especially, environmental conditions, should be controlled for, since efficiency differences between municipalities in different groups are notable.Durante los últimos años muchos trabajos han venido analizando la eficiencia productiva de las corporaciones locales de una gran variedad de países. Para este tipo de estudios resulta crucial una definición precisa de los servicios e infraestructuras que los municipios proporcionan a sus ciudadanos. Sin embargo, esta tarea presenta varias dificultades. En primer lugar, dado que en muchas circunstancias la ley únicamente establece los servicios mínimos que debe proporcionar un municipio, puede darse el caso de que algunos municipios vayan más allá de este mínimo legal y, consecuentemente, sean clasificados como ineficientes al compararlos con otros municipios que se ciñen al mínimo. En segundo lugar, las corporaciones locales operan en condiciones ambientales muy dispares, lo cual genera dudas acerca de la factibilidad de un análisis incondicional. Este trabajo aborda estas cuestiones proponiendo un análisis metafrontera en el que la eficiencia de las corporaciones locales se evalúa tras clasificarlas en distintos grupos de acuerdo con criterios múltiples (output mix, condiciones ambientales, tamaño). Las estimaciones son llevadas a cabo utilizando fronteras orden-m, debido a la robustez que presentan frente a observaciones atípicas y la inmunidad a la “maldición de la dimensionalidad” (curse of dimensionality). Llevamos a cabo una aplicación a los municipios españoles, y los resultados indican que tanto el output mix como, sobre todo, las condiciones ambientales, deberían ser tenidas en cuenta al evaluar la eficiencia, pues las diferencias en la eficiencia de los municipios en los distintos grupos son notables

Searching for the optimal territorial structure: the case of Spanish provincial councils

Modern states are organized in multi-level governance structures with economic and political authorities dispersed across them. However, although there is relatively widespread consensus that this form of organization is preferable to a centralized authority, the same cannot be said about its jurisdictional design—that is, how to transfer authority from central states to both supranational and subnational levels. This lack of consensus also exists in contexts with explicit initiatives to strengthen political ties such as the European Union (EU), and even within EU member countries, a situation that is aggravated by the relative scarcity of contributions that measure the advantages and disadvantages of different territorial organizations. We explore these issues through a study of one EU country, Spain, whose provincial councils (diputaciones) are often the subject of debate and controversy due to their contribution to increasing public spending and their purported inefficiencies, corruption, and lack of transparency. Specifically, we combine a variety of activity analysis techniques to evaluate how they impact on local government performance. Results suggest that, in general, the presence of a provincial council has a positive impact on local government performance, but when their activity levels are too high the effect can become pernicious

Quality of government and economic growth at the municipal level: Evidence from Spain

This paper analyzes the relationship between government efficiency—an important dimension of quality of government—and economic growth at the municipal level in 1,820 Spanish municipalities during the period 2008–2015. At this level of disaggregation, the literature is virtually nonexistent due to severe data constraints. The efficiency of local government provides an accurate indicator of how good local authorities are in managing their budget. This variable is expected to be highly correlated with other more traditional quality of government indicators, such as corruption. After computing our measure, we then use it in a growth regression framework. We find a dominant positive effect of government efficiency on income per capita growth, which is robust to a wide variety of scenarios. Our findings also suggest that increases in local government quality are particularly rewarding for the poorest municipalities.Funding for open access charge: CRUE-Universitat Jaume

Devolution dynamics of Spanish local government

Over the last few years, ther has been a devolutionary tendency in many developed and developing countries. In this article we propose a methodology to decompose whether the benefits in terms of effciency derived from transfers of powers from higher to municipal levels of government "the "economic dividend" of devolution) might increase over time. This methodology is based on linear programming approaches for effciency measurement. We provide anapplication to Spanish municipalities, which have had to adapt to both the European Stability and Growth Pact as well as to domestic regulation seeking local governments balanced budget. Results indicate that efficiency gains from enhaced decentralization have increased over time. However, the way through which these gains accrue differs across municipalities -in some cases technical change is the main component, whereas in others catching up dominates

On the determinants of local government debt: Does one size fit all?

This paper analyzes the factors that directly influence levels of debt in Spanish local governments. Specifically, the main objective is to find out the extent to which indebtedness is originated by controllable factors that public managers can influence, or whether it hinges on other variables beyond managers’ control. The importance of this issue has intensified since the start of the crisis in 2007, due to the abrupt decline of revenues and, simultaneously, to the stagnation (or even increase) in the levels of costs facing these institutions face. Results can be explored from multiple perspectives, given that the set of explanatory factors is also multiple. However, the most interesting result relates to the varying effect of each covariate depending on each municipality’s specific debt level, which suggests that economic policy recommendations should not be homogeneous across local governments

La importancia de los efectos espaciales en la deuda municipal

This article analyses the debt of local governments taking into account the presence of spatial interactionsamong neighbouring municipalities. To this end, the S2SLS and Spatial lag models were applied to a sampleof 527 municipalities located in the Valencian Community (Spain) for the year 2015. The main results reveala spatial correlation in outstanding debt among municipalities. The gender of the mayor, the grants andtransfers received and the average payment period have direct effects on outstanding debt. In turn, the netsavings index, inactive population, local income and the strength of the ruling political party have indirecteffects on the municipal debt and indirect spatial effects on the debt of the neighbouring municipalities.Este artículo analiza la deuda de los gobiernos locales teniendo en cuenta la presencia de interaccionesespaciales entre los municipios vecinos. Para ello se utiliza una muestra 527 municipios de la ComunidadValenciana, para el año 2015 y se aplican los modelos espaciales S2SLS y Spatial lag. Los principalesresultados obtenidos muestran la existencia de autocorrelacion espacial en la deuda viva entre losmunicipios. Las variables género del alcalde, índice de subvenciones y transferencias recibidas y el periodomedio de pago presentan efectos directos sobre la deuda viva. Mientras que, el índice de ahorro neto, lapoblación no activa, la renta local y la fortaleza política tienen efectos directos en la deuda del municipio yefectos espaciales indirectos en la deuda de los municipios vecino