A novel approach for exploring climatic factors limiting current pest distributions: A case study of Bemisia tabaci in north-west Europe and assessment of potential future establishment in the United Kingdom under climate change

This is the final version. Available on open access from Public Library of Science via the DOI in this recordData Availability: All relevant data are within the manuscript and its Supporting Information files.Bemisia tabaci (the tobacco whitefly) is an important agricultural pest of global significance primarily because of its ability to transmit multiple damaging plant viruses. To date, UK outbreaks of the whitefly have been restricted to glasshouses and there are no records of the whitefly establishing outdoors during the summer. This is despite the fact that annual degree-day models (that estimate accumulated warmth over the year above the development threshold), indicate that B. tabaci has the thermal potential for multiple summer generations in the UK. A set of 49 climate indices calculated using the present day climate (1986–2015) were therefore compared between the UK and the south of France, where B. tabaci is able to establish outdoors, to identify the factors limiting its establishment. The number of cold days and nights in summer, as well as the time spent within the whitefly’s optimum temperature range, were most significantly different between the two areas. These indices may impact the development of B. tabaci and offer an explanation for the absence of the whitefly outdoors in the UK during the summer. Further analyses undertaken with climate projections suggest that in a 2–4°C warmer world this pest could pose a risk to outdoor UK crops in July and August. A clear south-north gradient can be demonstrated for these indices. Linking any possible northwards spread of B. tabaci populations outdoors in France with changes in these indices could therefore provide an important indicator of any change in the risks of outdoor populations of this species developing in the UK. The effectiveness of climate indices in pest risk analysis is compellingly demonstrated, and it is recommended that in-depth comparisons of climatic indices between areas of pest presence and absence are conducted in other situations where forecasting the risks of pest establishment are complex and challenging.Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programm

Pollutant dispersion in a developing valley cold-air pool

Pollutants are trapped and accumulate within cold-air pools, thereby affecting air quality. A numerical model is used to quantify the role of cold-air-pooling processes in the dispersion of air pollution in a developing cold-air pool within an alpine valley under decoupled stable conditions. Results indicate that the negatively buoyant downslope flows transport and mix pollutants into the valley to depths that depend on the temperature deficit of the flow and the ambient temperature structure inside the valley. Along the slopes, pollutants are generally entrained above the cold-air pool and detrained within the cold-air pool, largely above the ground-based inversion layer. The ability of the cold-air pool to dilute pollutants is quantified. The analysis shows that the downslope flows fill the valley with air from above, which is then largely trapped within the cold-air pool, and that dilution depends on where the pollutants are emitted with respect to the positions of the top of the ground-based inversion layer and cold-air pool, and on the slope wind speeds. Over the lower part of the slopes, the cold-air-pool-averaged concentrations are proportional to the slope wind speeds where the pollutants are emitted, and diminish as the cold-air pool deepens. Pollutants emitted within the ground-based inversion layer are largely trapped there. Pollutants emitted farther up the slopes detrain within the cold-air pool above the ground-based inversion layer, although some fraction, increasing with distance from the top of the slopes, penetrates into the ground-based inversion layer.Peer reviewe

Habitat heterogeneity enables spatial and temporal coexistence of native and invasive macrophytes in shallow lake landscapes

Macrophyte invasive alien species (IAS) fitness is often hypothesised to be associated with beneficial environmental conditions (environmental matching) or species-poor communities. However, positive correlations between macrophyte IAS abundance and native plant richness can also arise, due to habitat heterogeneity (defined here as variation in abiotic and native biotic conditions over space and time). We analysed survey and palaeoecological data for macrophytes in satellite lakes along the Upper Lough Erne (ULE) system (Northern Ireland, UK), covering a gradient of eutrophication and connectivity to partition how environmental conditions, macrophyte diversity and habitat heterogeneity explained the abundance of Elodea canadensis, a widely distributed non-native macrophyte in Europe. E. canadensis abundance positively correlated with macrophyte richness at both the within- and between-lake scales indicating coexistence of native and invasive species over time. E. canadensis was also more prolific in highly connected and macrophyte-rich lakes, but sparser in the more eutrophic-isolated ones. Partial boosted regression trees revealed that in eutrophic-isolated lakes, E. canadensis abundances correlated with water clarity (negatively), plant diversity (positively), and plant cover (negatively) whereas in diverse-connected lakes, beta diversity (both positively and negatively) related to most greatly E. canadensis abundance. Dense macrophyte cover and unfavourable environmental conditions thus appear to confer invasibility resistance and sufficient habitat heterogeneity to mask any single effect of native biodiversity or environmental matching in controlling E. canadensis abundance. Therefore, in shallow lake landscapes, habitat heterogeneity variously enables the coexistence of native macrophytes and E. canadensis, reducing the often-described homogenisation effects of invasive macrophytes

Molecular Gas in Spiral Galaxies

In this review, I highlight a number of recent surveys of molecular gas in nearby spiral galaxies. Through such surveys, more complete observations of the distribution and kinematics of molecular gas have become available for galaxies with a wider range of properties (e.g., brightness, Hubble type, strength of spiral or bar structure). These studies show the promise of both interferometers and single-dish telescopes in advancing our general understanding of molecular gas in spiral galaxies. In particular, I highlight the contributions of the recent BIMA Survey of Nearby Galaxies (SONG).Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure. To appear in the proceedings of the 4th Cologne-Bonn-Zermatt-Symposium, "The Dense Interstellar Medium in Galaxies", which was held in Zermatt, Switzerland in September 200

Mother Knows Best: Dominant Females Determine Offspring Dispersal in Red Foxes (Vulpes vulpes)

Background: Relatedness between group members is central to understanding the causes of animal dispersal. In many group-living mammals this can be complicated as extra-pair copulations result in offspring having varying levels of relatedness to the dominant animals, leading to a potential conflict between male and female dominants over offspring dispersal strategies. To avoid resource competition and inbreeding, dominant males might be expected to evict unrelated males and related females, whereas the reverse strategy would be expected for dominant females. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used microsatellites and long-term data from an urban fox (Vulpes vulpes) population to compare dispersal strategies between offspring with intra- and extra-group fathers and mothers of differing social status in red foxes. Relatedness to the dominant male had no effect on dispersal in offspring of either sex, whereas there was a strong effect of relatedness to resident females on offspring dispersal independent of population density. Males with dominant mothers dispersed significantly more often than males with subordinate mothers, whereas dispersing females were significantly more likely to have subordinate mothers compared to philopatric females. Conclusions/Significance: This is the first study to demonstrate that relatedness to resident females is important in juvenile dispersal in group-living mammals. Male dispersal may be driven by inbreeding avoidance, whereas female dispersal appears to be influenced by the fitness advantages associated with residing with the same-sex dominant parent. Selection pressure for paternal influence on offspring dispersal is low due to the limited costs associated with retaining unrelated males and the need for alternative inbreeding avoidance mechanisms between the dominant male and his female offspring. These findings have important implications for the evolution of dispersal and group living in social mammals, and our understanding of a key biological process.peerReviewe

An Evaluation of the Precision of Measurement of Ryff’s Psychological Well-Being Scales in a Population Sample

The aim of this study is to assess the effective measurement range of Ryff’s Psychological Well-being scales (PWB). It applies normal ogive item response theory (IRT) methodology using factor analysis procedures for ordinal data based on a limited information estimation approach. The data come from a sample of 1,179 women participating in a midlife follow-up of a national birth cohort study in the UK. The PWB scales incorporate six dimensions: autonomy, positive relations with others, environmental mastery, personal growth, purpose in life and self-acceptance. Scale information functions were calculated to derive standard errors of measurement for estimated scores on each dimension. Construct variance was distinguished from method variance by inclusion of method factors from item wording (positive versus negative). Our IRT analysis revealed that the PWB measures well-being most accurately in the middle range of the score distribution, i.e. for women with average well-being. Score precision diminished at higher levels of well-being, and low well-being was measured more reliably than high well-being. A second-order well-being factor loaded by four of the dimensions achieved higher measurement precision and greater score accuracy across a wider range than any individual dimension. Future development of well-being scales should be designed to include items that are able to discriminate at high levels of well-being

Does shade improve light interception efficiency? A comparison among seedlings from shade-tolerant and -intolerant temperate deciduous tree species

• Here, we tested two hypotheses: shading increases light interception efficiency (LIE) of broadleaved tree seedlings, and shade-tolerant species exhibit larger LIEs than do shade-intolerant ones. The impact of seedling size was taken into account to detect potential size-independent effects on LIE. LIE was defined as the ratio of mean light intercepted by leaves to light intercepted by a horizontal surface of equal area. • Seedlings from five species differing in shade tolerance (Acer saccharum, Betula alleghaniensis, A. pseudoplatanus, B. pendula, Fagus sylvatica) were grown under neutral shading nets providing 36, 16 and 4% of external irradiance. Seedlings (1- and 2-year-old) were three-dimensionally digitized, allowing calculation of LIE. • Shading induced dramatic reduction in total leaf area, which was lowest in shade-tolerant species in all irradiance regimes. Irradiance reduced LIE through increasing leaf overlap with increasing leaf area. There was very little evidence of significant size-independent plasticity of LIE. • No relationship was found between the known shade tolerance of species and LIE at equivalent size and irradiance

A Prospective Study of the Association of Metacognitive Beliefs and Processes with Persistent Emotional Distress After Diagnosis of Cancer

Two hundred and six patients, diagnosed with primary breast or prostate cancer completed self-report questionnaires on two occasions: before treatment (T1) and 12 months later (T2). The questionnaires included: the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale; Impact of Events Scale; the Metacognitions Questionnaire-30 (MCQ-30) and the Illness Perceptions Questionnaire-revised. A series of regression analyses indicated that metacognitive beliefs at T1 predicted between 14 and 19 % of the variance in symptoms of anxiety, depression and trauma at T2 after controlling for age and gender. For all three outcomes, the MCQ-30 subscale ‘negative beliefs about worry’ made the largest individual contribution with ‘cognitive confidence’ also contributing in each case. For anxiety, a third metacognitive variable, ‘positive beliefs about worry’ also predicted variance in T2 symptoms. In addition, hierarchical analyses indicated that metacognitive beliefs explained a small but significant amount of variance in T2 anxiety (2 %) and T2 depression (4 %) over and above that explained by demographic variables, T1 symptoms and T1 illness perceptions. The findings suggest that modifying metacognitive beliefs and processes has the potential to alleviate distress associated with cancer

Relationship of literacy and heart failure in adults with diabetes

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although reading ability may impact educational strategies and management of heart failure (HF), the prevalence of limited literacy in patients with HF is unknown.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Subjects were drawn from the Vermont Diabetes Information System Field Survey, a cross-sectional study of adults with diabetes in primary care. Participants' self-reported characteristics were subjected to logistic regression to estimate the association of heart failure and literacy while controlling for social and economic factors. The Short Test of Functional Health Literacy was used to measure literacy.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 172 subjects with HF and diabetes, 27% had limited literacy compared to 15% of 826 subjects without HF (OR 2.05; 95% CI 1.39, 3.02; <it>P </it>< 0.001). Adjusting for age, sex, race, income, marital status and health insurance, HF continued to be significantly associated with limited literacy (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.00, 2.41, <it>P </it>= .05).</p> <p>After adjusting for education, however, HF was no longer independently associated with literacy (OR 1.31; 95% CI 0.82 – 2.08; <it>P </it>= 0.26).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Over one quarter of diabetic adults with HF have limited literacy. Although this association is no longer statistically significant when adjusted for education, clinicians should be aware that many of their patients have important limitations in dealing with written materials.</p