The Future of Russia : The Picture of Russia through Scenarios

For Finland, Russia as a neighbour is an opportunity and a challenge or, to put it differently, it presents benefits and threats. Therefore it is essential to be able to detect both the negative and positive trends in Russian political life, international relations, economy and society. A single event, a law that has been passed, a conflict that becomes frozen, election results or a discovery of some sort can appear to have a significant influence on a country’s development or even sometimes on the international system and the dynamics of foreign relations. For this reason, scenarios of the future are useful to present potential paths along which Russia may travel. This paper surveys these scenario accounts of Russia’s future in order to identify trends, key drivers, and potential outcomes

Shape, shear and flexion II - Quantifying the flexion formalism for extended sources with the ray-bundle method

Flexion-based weak gravitational lensing analysis is proving to be a useful adjunct to traditional shear-based techniques. As flexion arises from gradients across an image, analytic and numerical techniques are required to investigate flexion predictions for extended image/source pairs. Using the Schwarzschild lens model, we demonstrate that the ray-bundle method for gravitational lensing can be used to accurately recover second flexion, and is consistent with recovery of zero first flexion. Using lens plane to source plane bundle propagation, we find that second flexion can be recovered with an error no worse than 1% for bundle radii smaller than {\Delta}{\theta} = 0.01 {\theta}_E and lens plane impact pararameters greater than {\theta}_E + {\Delta}{\theta}, where {\theta}_E is the angular Einstein radius. Using source plane to lens plane bundle propagation, we demonstrate the existence of a preferred flexion zone. For images at radii closer to the lens than the inner boundary of this zone, indicative of the true strong lensing regime, the flexion formalism should be used with caution (errors greater than 5% for extended image/source pairs). We also define a shear zone boundary, beyond which image shapes are essentially indistinguishable from ellipses (1% error in ellipticity). While suggestive that a traditional weak lensing analysis is satisfactory beyond this boundary, a potentially detectable non-zero flexion signal remains.Comment: 14 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Societ

Delensing Gravitational Wave Standard Sirens with Shear and Flexion Maps

Supermassive black hole binary systems (SMBHB) are standard sirens -- the gravitational wave analogue of standard candles -- and if discovered by gravitational wave detectors, they could be used as precise distance indicators. Unfortunately, gravitational lensing will randomly magnify SMBHB signals, seriously degrading any distance measurements. Using a weak lensing map of the SMBHB line of sight, we can estimate its magnification and thereby remove some uncertainty in its distance, a procedure we call "delensing." We find that delensing is significantly improved when galaxy shears are combined with flexion measurements, which reduce small-scale noise in reconstructed magnification maps. Under a Gaussian approximation, we estimate that delensing with a 2D mosaic image from an Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) could reduce distance errors by about 30-40% for a SMBHB at z=2. Including an additional wide shear map from a space survey telescope could reduce distance errors by 50%. Such improvement would make SMBHBs considerably more valuable as cosmological distance probes or as a fully independent check on existing probes.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, submitted to MNRA

Analysis of two-point statistics of cosmic shear: III. Covariances of shear measures made easy

In recent years cosmic shear, the weak gravitational lensing effect by the large-scale structure of the Universe, has proven to be one of the observational pillars on which the cosmological concordance model is founded. Several cosmic shear statistics have been developed in order to analyze data from surveys. For the covariances of the prevalent second-order measures we present simple and handy formulae, valid under the assumptions of Gaussian density fluctuations and a simple survey geometry. We also formulate these results in the context of shear tomography, i.e. the inclusion of redshift information, and generalize them to arbitrary data field geometries. We define estimators for the E- and B-mode projected power spectra and show them to be unbiased in the case of Gaussianity and a simple survey geometry. From the covariance of these estimators we demonstrate how to derive covariances of arbitrary combinations of second-order cosmic shear measures. We then recalculate the power spectrum covariance for general survey geometries and examine the bias thereby introduced on the estimators for exemplary configurations. Our results for the covariances are considerably simpler than and analytically shown to be equivalent to the real-space approach presented in the first paper of this series. We find good agreement with other numerical evaluations and confirm the general properties of the covariance matrices. The studies of the specific survey configurations suggest that our simplified covariances may be employed for realistic survey geometries to good approximation.Comment: 15 pages, including 4 figures (Fig. 3 reduced in quality); minor changes, Fig. 4 extended; published in A&

Reconstitution of T cell receptor signaling in ZAP-70-deficient cells by retroviral transduction of the ZAP-70 gene.

A variant of severe combined immunodeficiency syndrome (SCID) with a selective inability to produce CD8 single positive T cells and a signal transduction defect in peripheral CD4+ cells has recently been shown to be the result of mutations in the ZAP-70 gene. T cell receptor (TCR) signaling requires the association of the ZAP-70 protein tyrosine kinase with the TCR complex. Human T cell leukemia virus type I-transformed CD4+ T cell lines were established from ZAP-70-deficient patients and normal controls. ZAP-70 was expressed and appropriately phosphorylated in normal T cell lines after TCR engagement, but was not detected in T cell lines from ZAP-70-deficient patients. To determine whether signaling could be reconstituted, wild-type ZAP-70 was introduced into deficient cells with a ZAP-70 retroviral vector. High titer producer clones expressing ZAP-70 were generated in the Gibbon ape leukemia virus packaging line PG13. After transduction, ZAP-70 was detected at levels equivalent to those observed in normal cells, and was appropriately phosphorylated on tyrosine after receptor engagement. The kinase activity of ZAP-70 in the reconstituted cells was also appropriately upregulated by receptor aggregation. Moreover, normal and transduced cells, but not ZAP-70-deficient cells, were able to mobilize calcium after receptor ligation, indicating that proximal TCR signaling was reconstituted. These results indicate that this form of SCID may be corrected by gene therapy

Modelling the hydrodynamic and morphological impacts of a tidal stream development in Ramsey Sound

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordA number of sites around the UK are being considered for development of tidal stream energy, one of which is Ramsey Sound off the coast of Pembrokeshire, South Wales. The Sound was used to test the prototype of the Delta Stream by Tidal Energy Ltd. After initial testing, a 10 MW tidal array was proposed at St David’s Head. To investigate any possible environmental impacts of the array due to energy extraction, a case study of the Pembrokeshire coast was performed using a high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model, Telemac2D, to investigate changes to hydrodynamics and morphodynamics. Results show that the proposed array of nine tidal energy converters will cause alterations to eddy propagation leading to changes in the velocity field up to 24km from the tidal array. Changes in morphodynamics are predicted through alterations to the bed shear stress. Changes to the mean and maximum bed shear stress, over a 30-day period, are found to be more localised and extend 12km from the array. These changes indicate that the proposed tidal array will lead to localised sediment accumulation and will act as a barrier to sediment transport, with potential consequences for the benthic ecology of the region.The authors thank Cardiff University for providing ADCP data through Ramsey Sound. The work was funded by the Industrial Doctorate Centre for Offshore Renewable Energy which is funded by the Energy Technologies Institute and the RCUK Energy Programme, grant number (EP/J500847/1). This work was carried out on the High Performance Computing Cluster supported by the Research and Specialist Computing Support service at the University of East Anglia

Empirical analyses of the length, weight, and condition of adult Atlantic salmon on return to the Scottish coast between 1963 and 2006

Sea age, size, and condition of adult Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are prime determinants of individual, and hence population, productivity. To elucidate potential mechanisms, 151 000 records of salmon returning to six Scottish coastal sites over 44 years were analysedfor length, weight, and condition, by site, sex, sea age, and river age. After correcting for capture effort biases, all sites showed seasonal increases in length and weight for both 1 sea winter (1SW) and 2SW fish. However, whereas condition increased slightly with season for 2SW, it decreased notably for 1SW. Sites showed common decadal trends in length, weight, and condition. Within years, length and weight residuals from trends were coherent across sites, but residuals from condition trends were not. Rates of seasonal condition change also showed decadal trends, dramatically different between sea ages, but common across sites within sea-age groups. Longer salmon were disproportionately heavy in all seasons. 1SW condition was markedly lower in 2006. Detrended correlations withoceanic environmental variables were generally not significant, and always weak. A published correlation between the condition of 1SW salmon caught at a single site and sea surface temperatures in the Northeast Atlantic could not be substantiated for any of the six fisheries over the wider time-scales examined

Dental tissue proportions in fossil orangutans from mainland Asia and Indonesia

Orangutans (Pongo) are the only great ape genus with a substantial Pleistocene and Holocene fossil record, demonstrating a much larger geographic range than extant populations. In addition to having an extensive fossil record, Pongo shows several convergent morphological similarities with Homo, including a trend of dental reduction during the past million years. While studies have documented variation in dental tissue proportions among species of Homo, little is known about variation in enamel thickness within fossil orangutans. Here we assess dental tissue proportions, including conventional enamel thickness indices, in a large sample of fossil orangutan postcanine teeth from mainland Asia and Indonesia. We find few differences between regions, except for significantly lower average enamel thickness (AET) values in Indonesian mandibular first molars. Differences between fossil and extant orangutans are more marked, with fossil Pongo showing higher AET in most postcanine teeth. These differences are significant for maxillary and mandibular first molars. Fossil orangutans show higher AET than extant Pongo due to greater enamel cap areas, which exceed increases in enamel-dentine junction length (due to geometric scaling of areas and lengths for the AET index calculation). We also find greater dentine areas in fossil orangutans, but relative enamel thickness indices do not differ between fossil and extant taxa. When changes in dental tissue proportions between fossil and extant orangutans are compared with fossil and recent Homo sapiens, Pongo appears to show isometric reduction in enamel and dentine, while crown reduction in H. sapiens appears to be due to preferential loss of dentine. Disparate selective pressures or developmental constraints may underlie these patterns. Finally, the finding of moderately thick molar enamel in fossil orangutans may represent an additional convergent dental similarity with Homo erectus, complicating attempts to distinguish these taxa in mixed Asian faunas

Operational and Technical Updates to the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool

The Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) has been used in the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office for over 25 years to estimate risk due to uncontrolled reentry of spacecraft and rocket bodies. Development over the last 3 years has included: a major change to the treatment of carbon fiber- and glass fiber-reinforced plastics (CFRP and GFRP, respectively); an updated atmospheric model; a new model for computing casualty area around an impacting debris object; and a newly-implemented scheme to determine the breakup altitude of a reentry object. Software also was written to automatically perform parameter sweeps in ORSAT to allow for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for components with borderline demisability. These updates have improved the speed and fidelity of the reentry analysis performed using ORSAT, and have allowed for improved engineering understanding by estimating the uncertainty for each components survivability. A statistical model for initial conditions captures the latitude bias in population density, a large improvement over the previous inclination-based latitude-averaged models. A sample spacecraft has been analyzed with standard techniques using ORSAT 6.2.1 and again using all the updated models; we will demonstrate the variation in the total debris casualty area and overall expectation of casualty