Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20th and 21st century.

Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055 K/decade during 1860-2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5) models during the 20th century and projections during the 21st century along with seasonal variability. Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Land Use (LU) are the major factors that gave rise to warming during the 20th century. Anthropogenic Aerosols (AA) have slowed down the warming rate. The CMIP5 projection over India shows a sharp increase in ST under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 where it reaches a maximum of 5 K by the end of the 21st century. Under RCP2.6 emission scenarios, ST increases up to the year 2050 and decreases afterwards. The seasonal variability of ST during the 21st century shows significant increase during summer. Analysis of rare heat and cold events for 2080-2099 relative to a base period of 1986-2006 under RCP8.5 scenarios reveals that both are likely to increase substantially. However, by controlling the regional AA and LU change in India, a reduction in further warming over India region might be achieved

The shell mounds of the Farasan Islands - An isotopic study of seasonality and coastal exploitation

The focus of this thesis is to assess the value of the coastal landscape of the southern Red Sea after the aridification of the environment following the early Holocene wet period (11,000–6,000 cal BP). It presents data from the Farasan Islands shell midden complex, encompassing over 3,000 shellmounds accumulated between 6,500 and 4,500 cal BP, and indicating heavy reliance on marine molluscs as food. In the context of the overall aridity, there are crucial questions surrounding such intensive shellfish exploitation: a) were shellfish the main food source on the islands? b) were they a reliable food source and could they have supported a permanent settlement? c) was the exploitation of shellfish linked to the environmental change? Exploitation patterns of shellfish are reconstructed using seasonality data based on 2,100 stable isotope measurements (δ18O and δ13C) of the marine gastropod Conomurex* fasciatus* (Born 1778). This enables an assessment of the seasonal consumption of this species, and hence whether it could have been exploited all year round, or whether movement to the mainland (with its more temperate mountains) was necessary. Additionally, environmental data based on the same proxy is used to reconstruct climatic conditions. Early and late periods (6,500–4,800 cal BP) are compared to analyse the degree of aridity and the possibility of a longer2lasting early Holocene wet phase. Results indicate that year2round shellfish gathering took place, with more intensive exploitation occurring in the summer dry season, and that 6,500 years ago climate was already extremely dry. This suggests that the intensive coastal exploitation was not due to landscape aridification, it also indicates that seasonal migration to the mainland was not a necessity, as shellfish were available throughout the year. These results significantly extend the current understanding of subsistence strategies in the southern Red Sea and the value of shellmounds worldwide

Elevated CSF neurofilament proteins predict brain atrophy: A 15-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND: Body fluid and structural imaging biomarkers give information on neurodegeneration. The relationship over time is not known in multiple sclerosis. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the temporal relationship of elevated cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) neurofilament (Nf) protein levels, a biomarker for axonal loss, with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) atrophy measures. METHODS: In patients with multiple sclerosis, CSF Nf heavy chain (NfH) phosphoform levels were quantified at baseline and dichotomised into ‘normal’ and ‘high’. Atrophy was assessed by MRI at baseline and 15-year follow-up using SIENAX and FreeSurfer software. RESULTS: High baseline CSF NfHSMI35 levels predicted pronounced atrophy at 15-year follow-up (odds ratio (OR): 36, p 80% is reached with 14–50 patients. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that high CSF NfH levels are an early predictor of later brain and spinal cord atrophy using structural imaging biomarkers and can be investigated in reasonably sized patient cohorts

Streamflow forecasting using functional regression

Streamflow, as a natural phenomenon, is continuous in time and so are the meteorological variables which influence its variability. In practice, it can be of interest to forecast the whole flow curve instead of points (daily or hourly). To this end, this paper introduces the functional linear models and adapts it to hydrological forecasting. More precisely, functional linear models are regression models based on curves instead of single values. They allow to consider the whole process instead of a limited number of time points or features. We apply these models to analyse the flow volume and the whole streamflow curve during a given period by using precipitations curves. The functional model is shown to lead to encouraging results. The potential of functional linear models to detect special features that would have been hard to see otherwise is pointed out. The functional model is also compared to the artificial neural network approach and the advantages and disadvantages of both models are discussed. Finally, future research directions involving the functional model in hydrology are presented

A Parameter Selection Framework for Sustainability Assessment

Sustainability assessment of resource recovery from waste is an important prerequisite for informed and sound decision-making. Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA) has been developed to support this process, yet its use is still constrained by the difficulty of identifying the most relevant impact parameters. This paper, seeks to inform LCSA for resource recovery from waste based on a parameter identification approach that uses the political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal (PESTEL) analysis. The novelty of this approach lies in the structured conceptualisation of the resource recovery system and the context within which decisions are made. The anaerobic digestion of source-separated food waste in the UK is used as a case study to trial and demonstrate the approach. Findings suggest that a conceptual, qualitative analysis, although limited in its scope due to the lack of quantitative components, is suitable in integrating different parameters, allowing for a holistic conceptualisation of the system and capturing important issues that could be easily overlooked. This type of analysis can summarise the key interdependencies, contrast the trade-offs and provide a wider understanding of the political and legal context within which the system operates, all important in extending the implementation of LCSA towards the right direction

Criminalised abortion in UK obstructs reflective choice and best care

Peer reviewe

Structure-function relationships in the visual system in multiple sclerosis: an MEG and OCT study

BACKGROUND: We conducted a multi-modal optical coherence tomography (OCT) and magnetoencephalography (MEG) study to test whether there is a relationship between retinal layer integrity and electrophysiological activity and connectivity (FC) in the visual network influenced by optic neuritis (ON) in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: One hundred and two MS patients were included in this MEG/OCT study. Retinal OCT data were collected from the optic discs, macular region, and segmented. Neuronal activity and FC in the visual cortex was estimated from source-reconstructed resting-state MEG data by computing relative power and the phase lag index (PLI). Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to account for intereye within-patient dependencies. RESULTS: There was a significant relationship for both relative power and FC in the visual cortex with retinal layer thicknesses. The findings were influenced by the presence of MSON, particularly for connectivity in the alpha bands and the outer macular layers. In the absence of MSON, this relationship was dominated by the lower frequency bands (theta, delta) and inner and outer retinal layers. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that visual cortex FC more than activity alters in the presence of MSON, which may guide the understanding of FC plasticity effects following MSON

Toward an Improved Air Pollution Warning System in Quebec.

The nature of pollutants involved in smog episodes can vary significantly in various cities and contexts and will impact local populations differently due to actual exposure and pre-existing sensitivities for cardiovascular or respiratory diseases. While regulated standards and guidance remain important, it is relevant for cities to have local warning systems related to air pollution. The present paper proposes indicators and thresholds for an air pollution warning system in the metropolitan areas of Montreal and Quebec City (Canada). It takes into account past and current local health impacts to launch its public health warnings for short-term episodes. This warning system considers fine particulate matter (PM2.5) as well as the combined oxidant capacity of ozone and nitrogen dioxide (Ox) as environmental exposures. The methodology used to determine indicators and thresholds consists in identifying extreme excess mortality episodes in the data and then choosing the indicators and thresholds to optimize the detection of these episodes. The thresholds found for the summer were 31 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and 43 ppb for Ox in Montreal, and 32 μg/m3 and 23 ppb in Quebec City. In winter, thresholds found were 25 μg/m3 and 26 ppb in Montreal, and 33 μg/m3 and 21 ppb in Quebec City. These results are in line with different guidelines existing concerning air quality, but more adapted to the cities examined. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted which suggests that Ox is more determinant than PM2.5 in detecting excess mortality episodes

Clinical trials in neonates: ethical issues

Clinical trials in neonatology often raise complex ethical problems. This paper suggests that in tackling these it is useful to identify and separate out those elements of the problem that are genuinely ethical (e.g. can I enter a child into a trial if I am not in personal equipoise?) from those that are empirical (e.g. what is the evidence for a treatment's effectiveness?) and those that are formal (e.g. what do codes or the law permit?) The genuinely ethical elements are examples of philosophical problems and must be tackled in a way appropriate to such problems. In practice this usually means some form of systematic argument. This is often frustrating to clinicians who are more used to the assuredness of empirical research. The paper next examines two ethical problems that arise frequently in neonatal trials. The first is equipoise and the related issue of recruiting parents who are not in equipoise because they strongly desire that their baby get the active treatment. We briefly defend the recruitment of such "desperate volunteers". The second is informed consent. We discuss the nature and value of informed consent and suggest that clinicians can often obtain worthwhile consent even in very difficult trials. The final section of the paper uses the example of clinical trials for brain injury to illustrate the difficulties.</p