Measuring the Behavioural Component of the S&P 500 and its Relationship to Financial Stress and Aggregated Earnings Surprises

Scholars in management and economics have shown increasing interest in isolating the behavioural dimension of market evolution. Indeed, by improving forecast accuracy and precision, this exercise would certainly help firms to anticipate economic fluctuations, thus leading to more profitable business and investment strategies. Yet, how to extract the behavioural component from real market data remains an open question. By using monthly data on the returns of the constituents of the S&P 500 index, we propose a Bayesian methodology to measure the extent to which market data conform to what is predicted by prospect theory (the behavioural perspective), relative to the (standard) subjective expected utility theory baseline.We document a significant behavioural component that reaches its peaks during recession periods and is correlated to measures of financial volatility, market sentiment and financial stress with expected sign. Moreover, the behavioural component decreases around macroeconomic corporate earnings news, while it reacts positively to the number of surprising announcements

Profiles of physical, emotional and psychosocial wellbeing in the Lothian birth cohort 1936

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Physical, emotional, and psychosocial wellbeing are important domains of function. The aims of this study were to explore the existence of separable groups among 70-year olds with scores representing physical function, perceived quality of life, and emotional wellbeing, and to characterise any resulting groups using demographic, personality, cognition, health and lifestyle variables.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used latent class analysis (LCA) to identify possible groups.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Results suggested there were 5 groups. These included High (n = 515, 47.2% of the sample), Average (n = 417, 38.3%), and Poor Wellbeing (n = 37, 3.4%) groups. The two other groups had contrasting patterns of wellbeing: one group scored relatively well on physical function, but low on emotional wellbeing (Good Fitness/ Low Spirits,n = 60, 5.5%), whereas the other group showed low physical function but relatively well emotional wellbeing (Low Fitness/Good Spirits, n = 62, 5.7%). Salient characteristics that distinguished all the groups included smoking and drinking behaviours, personality, and illness.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite there being some evidence of these groups, the results also support a largely one-dimensional construct of wellbeing in old age—for the domains assessed here—though with some evidence that some individuals have uneven profiles.</p

Promoting Functional Health in Midlife and Old Age: Long-Term Protective Effects of Control Beliefs, Social Support, and Physical Exercise

Previous studies have examined physical risk factors in relation to functional health, but less work has focused on the protective role of psychological and social factors. We examined the individual and joint protective contribution of control beliefs, social support and physical exercise to changes in functional health, beyond the influence of health status and physical risk factors in middle-aged and older adults. Given that functional health typically declines throughout adulthood, it is important to identify modifiable factors that can be implemented to maintain functioning, improve quality of life, and reduce disability.We conducted a national longitudinal study, Midlife in the United States (MIDUS), with assessments in 1995-1996 and 2004-2006, and 3,626 community-residing adults, aged 32 to 84, were included in the analyses. Functional health (Physical Functioning subscale of the SF-36) and protective factors were measured at both occasions. While controlling for socio-demographic, health status, and physical risk factors (large waist circumference, smoking, and alcohol or drug problems), a composite of the three protective variables (control beliefs, social support, and physical exercise) at Time 1 was significantly related to functional health change. The more of these factors at Time 1, the better the health maintenance over 10 years. Among middle-aged and older adults, declines in health were significantly reduced with an increased number of protective factors.Age-related declines in health were reduced among those with more protective factors up to a decade earlier in life. Modifiable psychological, social, and physical protective factors, individually and in the aggregate, are associated with maintenance of functional health, beyond the damaging effects of physical risk factors. The results are encouraging for the prospect of developing interventions to promote functional health and for reducing public health expenditures for physical disability in later life

Informed trading by foreign institutional investors as a constraint on tunneling: evidence from China

Research Question/Issue: This paper investigates how the trading activities of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) affect the tunneling activities of controlling shareholders in an emerging economy (China). Research Findings/Insights: We use an unbalanced panel dataset of 167 FIIs with investments in Chinese real estate firms during the period 2003 to 2011, which gives us 1006 firm-year observations in total. We find strong support for our hypothesis of an inverted U shaped relationship between FII trading turnover and the extent of tunneling by controlling shareholders. Theoretical/Academic Implications: In many emerging economies, the institutional environments for investor protection are weak. Powerful controlling shareholders may take the opportunity to extract private benefits via tunneling activities to the detriment of minority shareholders, and informed minority investors may also take advantage of less well-informed investors. There are thus multiple principal-principal agency conflicts. FIIs are a particularly important group of informed investors. On the one hand, large-scale aggressive trading by FIIs should drive stock prices to fundamentals, provide market discipline to management, and thus limit tunneling. On the other hand, FIIs may opt to exploit their private knowledge to gain trading profits at the expense of uninformed investors, and implicitly support tunneling. We highlight these potential effects, and demonstrate empirically an inverted U-shaped relationship between FII trading turnover and the extent of tunneling. Practitioner/Policy Implications: Tunneling is a serious issue, particularly in emerging economies where the institutional arrangements for minority investor protection are often weak. FII involvement may enhance market discipline, but may also exacerbate the problem so policy-makers need to guard against potential adverse effects. An ownership cap on FII shareholdings is unlikely to be effective, but policy-makers might strengthen QFII license revocation policies and issue more licenses to promote competition among FII

Effects of platelet rich plasma (PRP) on human gingival fibroblast, osteoblast and periodontal ligament cell behaviour

The use of platelet rich plasma (PRP, GLO) has been used as an adjunct to various regenerative dental procedures. The aim of the present study was to characterize the influence of PRP on human gingival fibroblasts, periodontal ligament (PDL) cells and osteoblast cell behavior in vitro

Inhibition of IL-10 Production by Maternal Antibodies against Group B Streptococcus GAPDH Confers Immunity to Offspring by Favoring Neutrophil Recruitment

Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is the leading cause of neonatal pneumonia, septicemia, and meningitis. We have previously shown that in adult mice GBS glycolytic enzyme glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH) is an extracellular virulence factor that induces production of the immunosuppressive cytokine interleukin-10 (IL-10) by the host early upon bacterial infection. Here, we investigate whether immunity to neonatal GBS infection could be achieved through maternal vaccination against bacterial GAPDH. Female BALB/c mice were immunized with rGAPDH and the progeny was infected with a lethal inoculum of GBS strains. Neonatal mice born from mothers immunized with rGAPDH were protected against infection with GBS strains, including the ST-17 highly virulent clone. A similar protective effect was observed in newborns passively immunized with anti-rGAPDH IgG antibodies, or F(ab')2 fragments, indicating that protection achieved with rGAPDH vaccination is independent of opsonophagocytic killing of bacteria. Protection against lethal GBS infection through rGAPDH maternal vaccination was due to neutralization of IL-10 production soon after infection. Consequently, IL-10 deficient (IL-10−/−) mice pups were as resistant to GBS infection as pups born from vaccinated mothers. We observed that protection was correlated with increased neutrophil trafficking to infected organs. Thus, anti-rGAPDH or anti-IL-10R treatment of mice pups before GBS infection resulted in increased neutrophil numbers and lower bacterial load in infected organs, as compared to newborn mice treated with the respective control antibodies. We showed that mothers immunized with rGAPDH produce neutralizing antibodies that are sufficient to decrease IL-10 production and induce neutrophil recruitment into infected tissues in newborn mice. These results uncover a novel mechanism for GBS virulence in a neonatal host that could be neutralized by vaccination or immunotherapy. As GBS GAPDH is a structurally conserved enzyme that is metabolically essential for bacterial growth in media containing glucose as the sole carbon source (i.e., the blood), this protein constitutes a powerful candidate for the development of a human vaccine against this pathogen

Patterns and associates of cognitive function, psychosocial wellbeing and health in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936

BACKGROUND: Cognitive function, psychosocial wellbeing and health are important domains of function. Consistencies and inconsistencies in patterns of wellbeing across these domains may be informative about wellbeing in old age and the ways it is manifested amongst individuals. In this study we investigated whether there were groups of individuals with different profiles of scores across these domains. We also aimed to identify characteristics of any evident groups by comparing them on variables that were not used in identifying the groups. METHODS: The sample was the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936, which included 1091 participants born in 1936. They are a community-dwelling, narrow-age-range sample of 70-year-olds. Most had taken part in the Scottish Mental Survey 1947 at an average age of 11, making available a measure of childhood intelligence. We used latent class analysis (LCA) to explore possible profiles using 9 variables indicating cognitive functioning, psychosocial wellbeing and health status. Demographic, personality, and lifestyle variables – none of which were used in the LCA – were used to characterize the resulting profile groups. RESULTS: We accepted a 3-group solution, which we labeled High Wellbeing (65.3%), Low Cognition (20.3%), and Low Bio-Psychosocial (14.5%). Notably, the High Wellbeing group had significantly higher childhood IQ, lower Neuroticism scores, and a lower percentage of current smokers than the other 2 groups. CONCLUSION: The majority of individuals were functioning generally well; however, there was evidence of the presence of groups with different profiles, which may be explained in part in terms of cognitive ability differences. Results suggested that higher life-long intelligence, personality traits associated with less mental distress, and basic health practices such as avoiding smoking are important associates of wellbeing in old age

Data Mining the Brain to Decode the Mind

In recent years, neuroscience has begun to transform itself into a “big data” enterprise with the importation of computational and statistical techniques from machine learning and informatics. In addition to their translational applications such as brain-computer interfaces and early diagnosis of neuropathology, these tools promise to advance new solutions to longstanding theoretical quandaries. Here I critically assess whether these promises will pay off, focusing on the application of multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) to the problem of reverse inference. I argue that MVPA does not inherently provide a new answer to classical worries about reverse inference, and that the method faces pervasive interpretive problems of its own. Further, the epistemic setting of MVPA and other decoding methods contributes to a potentially worrisome shift towards prediction and away from explanation in fundamental neuroscience

World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions

BACKGROUND: To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. METHODS: In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. FINDINGS: Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629-0·741) to 0·833 (0·783-0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. INTERPRETATION: We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. FUNDING: World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research