Testing Policy Theory with Statistical Models of Networks

Abstract This paper presents a conceptual framework for clarifying the network hypotheses embedded in policy theories and how they relate to macro-level political outcomes and micro-level political behavior. We then describe the role of statistical models of networks for testing these hypotheses, including the problem of operationalizing theoretical concepts with the parameters of statistical models. Examples from existing policy research are provided and potential extensions are discussed. This paper is forthcoming as the introduction to a special issue of the Policy Studies Journal on statistical models of policy networks

Spitzer Reveals Evidence of Molecular Absorption in the Atmosphere of the Hot Neptune LTT 9779b

Non-rocky sub-Jovian exoplanets in high-irradiation environments are rare. LTT 9779b, also known as Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) object of interest (TOI) 193.01, is one of the few such planets discovered to date, and the first example of an ultrahot Neptune. The planet's bulk density indicates that it has a substantial atmosphere, so to investigate its atmospheric composition and shed further light on its origin, we obtained Spitzer InfraRed Array Camera secondary eclipse observations of LTT 9779b at 3.6 and 4.5 μm. We combined the Spitzer observations with a measurement of the secondary eclipse in the TESS bandpass. The resulting secondary eclipse spectrum strongly prefers a model that includes CO absorption over a blackbody spectrum, incidentally making LTT 9779b the first TESS exoplanet (and the first ultrahot Neptune) with evidence of a spectral feature in its atmosphere. We did not find evidence of a thermal inversion, at odds with expectations based on the atmospheres of similarly irradiated hot Jupiters. We also report a nominal dayside brightness temperature of 2305 ± 141 K (based on the 3.6 μm secondary eclipse measurement), and we constrained the planet's orbital eccentricity to e < 0.01 at the 99.7% confidence level. Together with our analysis of LTT 9779b's thermal phase curves reported in a companion paper, our results set the stage for similar investigations of a larger sample of exoplanets discovered in the hot-Neptune desert, investigations that are key to uncovering the origin of this population

Spitzer Reveals Evidence of Molecular Absorption in the Atmosphere of the Hot Neptune LTT 9979b

Non-rocky sub-jovian exoplanets in high irradiation environments are rare. LTT 9979b, also known as TESS Object of Interest (TOI) 193.01, is one of the few such planets discovered to date, and the first example of an ultra-hot Neptune. The planet's bulk density indicates that it has a substantial atmosphere, so to investigate its atmospheric composition and shed further light on its origin, we obtained {\it Spitzer} IRAC secondary eclipse observations of LTT 9979b at 3.6 and 4.5 $\mu$m. We combined the {\it Spitzer} observations with a measurement of the secondary eclipse in the {\it TESS} bandpass. The resulting secondary eclipse spectrum strongly prefers a model that includes CO absorption over a blackbody spectrum, incidentally making LTT 9979b the first {\it TESS} exoplanet (and the first ultra-hot Neptune) with evidence of a spectral feature in its atmosphere. We did not find evidence of a thermal inversion, at odds with expectations based on the atmospheres of similarly-irradiated hot Jupiters. We also report a nominal dayside brightness temperature of 2305 $\pm$ 141 K (based on the 3.6 $\mu$m secondary eclipse measurement), and we constrained the planet's orbital eccentricity to $e < 0.01$ at the 99.7 \% confidence level. Together with our analysis of LTT 9979b's thermal phase curves reported in a companion paper, our results set the stage for similar investigations of a larger sample of exoplanets discovered in the hot Neptune desert, investigations which are key to uncovering the origin of this population.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures; accepted to ApJ Letter

Bright Opportunities for Atmospheric Characterization of Small Planets: Masses and Radii of K2-3 b, c, and d and GJ3470 b from Radial Velocity Measurements and Spitzer Transits

We report improved masses, radii, and densities for four planets in two bright M-dwarf systems, K2-3 and GJ3470, derived from a combination of new radial velocity and transit observations. Supplementing K2 photometry with follow-up Spitzer transit observations refined the transit ephemerides of K2-3 b, c, and d by over a factor of 10. We analyze ground-based photometry from the Evryscope and Fairborn Observatory to determine the characteristic stellar activity timescales for our Gaussian Process fit, including the stellar rotation period and activity region decay timescale. The stellar rotation signals for both stars are evident in the radial velocity data and is included in our fit using a Gaussian process trained on the photometry. We find the masses of K2-3 b, K2-3 c, and GJ3470 b to be 6.48{}-0.93+0.99, 2.14{}-1.04+1.08, and 12.58{}-1.28+1.31 M ⊕, respectively. K2-3 d was not significantly detected and has a 3σ upper limit of 2.80 M ⊕. These two systems are training cases for future TESS systems; due to the low planet densities (ρ < 3.7 g cm-3) and bright host stars (K < 9 mag), they are among the best candidates for transmission spectroscopy in order to characterize the atmospheric compositions of small planets