Seasonal predictability of the winter NAO from north Atlantic sea surface temperatures

[1] We examine the seasonal predictability of the winter (December-January-February) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from lagged north Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1950/1-2000/1. We identify two lagged modes of SST variability whose principal components (PCs) are correlated significantly to upcoming winter NAO indices. We use linear regression with the PCs as predictors to assess the predictability of the winter NAO from cross-validation over the full period and from replicated real-time forecasts over the recent 15 year period 1986/7-2000/1. The model anticipates, in early November, the upcoming winter NAO - for a range of NAO indices - with a correlation between 0.47 and 0.63 for 1950/ 1-2000/1, and between 0.51 and 0.65 for the replicated real-time forecast period. The model also anticipates the correct NAO sign in 67% to 75% of the last 51 winters and in 80% to 93% of the last 15 winters

Summer snow extent heralding of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation

[1] Winter climate over the North Atlantic and European sector is modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We find that the summer extent of snow cover over northern North America and northern Eurasia is linked significantly (p < 0.01) to the upcoming winter NAO state. Summers with high/low snow extent precede winters of low/high NAO index phase. We suggest the linkage arises from the summer snow-associated formation of anomalous longitudinal differences in surface air temperature with the subpolar North Atlantic. Our findings indicate the seasonal predictability of North Atlantic winter climate may be higher and extend to longer leads than thought previously

Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North Atlantic

[1] Interannual variability in winter storminess over the North Atlantic and Europe causes significant risk and uncertainty. Attempts to seasonally predict winter storminess levels have identified little skill to date. However, recent statistical studies of observational data indicate the presence of marginal but useful skill in predicting the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This predictability arises from a significant (p < 0.01) link between northern hemisphere summer snow extent and the coming winter NAO state. We apply this link to assess the seasonal predictability in winter storminess 1972/3-2000/1 at a given point. The correlation skill for predicting, by early September, the numbers of winter gale days and storm force days in the main North Atlantic winter storm track region is between 0.5 and 0.6. Our finding suggests the seasonal predictability of North Atlantic winter storminess may be higher and extend to longer leads than thought previously

Synthesis and characterization of hybrid nanostructures

There has been significant interest in the development of multicomponent nanocrystals formed by the assembly of two or more different materials with control over size, shape, composition, and spatial orientation. In particular, the selective growth of metals on the tips of semiconductor nanorods and wires can act to couple the electrical and optical properties of semiconductors with the unique properties of various metals. Here, we outline our progress on the solution-phase synthesis of metal-semiconductor heterojunctions formed by the growth of Au, Pt, or other binary catalytic metal systems on metal (Cd, Pb, Cu)-chalcogenide nanostructures. We show the ability to grow the metal on various shapes (spherical, rods, hexagonal prisms, and wires). Furthermore, manipulating the composition of the metal nanoparticles is also shown, where PtNi and PtCo alloys are our main focus. The magnetic and electrical properties of the developed hybrid nanostructures are shown

Holocene dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds and possible links to CO2 outgassing

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SHW) play an important role in regulating the capacity of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. They modulate upwelling of carbon-rich deep water and, with sea ice, determine the ocean surface area available for air–sea gas exchange. Some models indicate that the current strengthening and poleward shift of these winds will weaken the carbon sink. If correct, centennial- to millennial-scale reconstructions of the SHW intensity should be linked with past changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and sea ice. Here we present a 12,300-year reconstruction of wind strength based on three independent proxies that track inputs of sea-salt aerosols and minerogenic particles accumulating in lake sediments on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island. Between about 12.1 thousand years ago (ka) and 11.2 ka, and since about 7 ka, the wind intensities were above their long-term mean and corresponded with increasing atmospheric CO2. Conversely, from about 11.2 to 7.2 ka, the wind intensities were below their long-term mean and corresponded with decreasing atmospheric CO2. These observations are consistent with model inferences of enhanced SHW contributing to the long-term outgassing of CO2 from the Southern Ocean

Impact Factor: outdated artefact or stepping-stone to journal certification?

A review of Garfield's journal impact factor and its specific implementation as the Thomson Reuters Impact Factor reveals several weaknesses in this commonly-used indicator of journal standing. Key limitations include the mismatch between citing and cited documents, the deceptive display of three decimals that belies the real precision, and the absence of confidence intervals. These are minor issues that are easily amended and should be corrected, but more substantive improvements are needed. There are indications that the scientific community seeks and needs better certification of journal procedures to improve the quality of published science. Comprehensive certification of editorial and review procedures could help ensure adequate procedures to detect duplicate and fraudulent submissions.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figures, 6 table

Collective electrical oscillations of a diatom population induced by dark stress

Diatoms are photosynthetic microalgae, a group with a major environmental role on the planet due to the biogeochemical cycling of silica and global fixation of carbon. However, they can evolve into harmful blooms through a resourceful communication mechanism, not yet fully understood. Here, we demonstrate that a population of diatoms under darkness show quasi-periodic electrical oscillations, or intercellular waves. The origin is paracrine signaling, which is a feedback, or survival, mechanism that counteracts changes in the physicochemical environment. The intracellular messenger is related to Ca2+ ions since spatiotemporal changes in their concentration match the characteristics of the intercellular waves. Our conclusion is supported by using a Ca2+ channel inhibitor. The transport of Ca2+ ions through the membrane to the extracellular medium is blocked and the intercellular waves disappear. The translation of microalgae cooperative signaling paves the way for early detection and prevention of harmful blooms and an extensive range of stress-induced alterations in the aquatic ecosystem.Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) [SFRH/BPD/91518/2012, UID/Multi/04326/2013]; SNMB - INOV: Innovation for a more competitive shellfish sector; Operational Program (OP); European Union through the European Structural Funds and Investment Funds (FEEI); European Maritime and Fisheries Fund (EMFF)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Low Frequency Groans Indicate Larger and More Dominant Fallow Deer (Dama dama) Males

Background: Models of honest advertisement predict that sexually selected calls should signal male quality. In most vertebrates, high quality males have larger body sizes that determine higher social status and in turn higher reproductive success. Previous research has emphasised the importance of vocal tract resonances or formant frequencies of calls as cues to body size in mammals. However, the role of the acoustic features of vocalisations as cues to other quality-related phenotypic characteristics of callers has rarely been investigated. Methodology/Principal Findings: We examined whether the acoustic structure of fallow deer groans provides reliable information on the quality of the caller, by exploring the relationships between male quality (body size, dominance rank, and mating success) and the frequency components of calls (fundamental frequency, formant frequencies, and formant dispersion). We found that body size was not related to the fundamental frequency of groans, whereas larger males produced groans with lower formant frequencies and lower formant dispersion. Groans of high-ranking males were characterised by lower minimum fundamental frequencies and to a lesser extent, by lower formant dispersions. Dominance rank was the factor most strongly related to mating success, with higher-ranking males having higher mating success. The minimum fundamental frequency and the minimum formant dispersion were indirectly related to male mating success (through dominance rank). Conclusion/Significance: Our study is the first to show that sexually selected vocalisations can signal social dominance in mammals other than primates, and reveals that independent acoustic components encode accurate information on different phenotypic aspects of male quality

Comprehensive Modeling of Multimode Fiber Sensors for Refractive Index Measurement and Experimental Validation

We propose and develop a comprehensive model for estimating the refractive index (RI) response over three potential sensing zones in a multimode fiber. The model has been developed based on a combined ray optics, Gaussian beam, and wave optics analysis coupled to the consideration of the injected interrogating lightwave characteristics and validated experimentally through the realization of three sensors with different lengths of stripped cladding sections as the sensing region. The experimental results highly corroborate and validate the simulation output from the model for the three RI sensing zones. The sensors can be employed over a very wide dynamic RI range from 1.316 to over 1.608 at a wavelength of 1550 nm, with the best resolution of 2.2447 × 10−5 RI unit (RIU) obtained in Zone II for a 1-cm sensor length