Is the SMART risk prediction model ready for real-world implementation? A validation study in a routine care setting of approximately 380 000 individuals

AIMS: Reliably quantifying event rates in secondary prevention could aid clinical decision-making, including quantifying potential risk reductions of novel, and sometimes expensive, add-on therapies. We aimed to assess whether the SMART risk prediction model performs well in a real-world setting. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a historical open cohort study using UK primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2000-2017) diagnosed with coronary, cerebrovascular, peripheral, and/or aortic atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Analyses were undertaken separately for cohorts with established (≥6 months) vs. newly diagnosed ASCVD. The outcome was first post-cohort entry occurrence of myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death. Among the cohort with established ASCVD [n = 244 578, 62.1% male, median age 67.3 years, interquartile range (IQR) 59.2-74.0], the calibration and discrimination achieved by the SMART model was not dissimilar to performance at internal validation [Harrell's c-statistic = 0.639, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.636-0.642, compared with 0.675, 0.642-0.708]. Decision curve analysis indicated that the model outperformed treat all and treat none strategies in the clinically relevant 20-60% predicted risk range. Consistent findings were observed in sensitivity analyses, including complete case analysis (n = 182 482; c = 0.624, 95% CI 0.620-0.627). Among the cohort with newly diagnosed ASCVD (n = 136 445; 61.0% male; median age 66.0 years, IQR 57.7-73.2), model performance was weaker with more exaggerated risk under-prediction and a c-statistic of 0.559, 95% CI 0.556-0.562. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of the SMART model in this validation cohort demonstrates its potential utility in routine healthcare settings in guiding both population and individual-level decision-making for secondary prevention patients

Long term benzodiazepine use for insomnia in patients over the age of 60: discordance of patient and physician perceptions

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to determine and compare patients' and physicians' perceptions of benefits and risks of long term benzodiazepine use for insomnia in the elderly. METHODS: A cross-sectional study (written survey) was conducted in an academic primary care group practice in Toronto, Canada. The participants were 93 patients over 60 years of age using a benzodiazepine for insomnia and 25 physicians comprising sleep specialists, family physicians, and family medicine residents. The main outcome measure was perception of benefit and risk scores calculated from the mean of responses (on a Likert scale of 1 to 5) to various items on the survey. RESULTS: The mean perception of benefit score was significantly higher in patients than physicians (3.85 vs. 2.84, p < 0.001, 95% CI 0.69, 1.32). The mean perception of risk score was significantly lower in patients than physicians (2.21 vs. 3.63, p < 0.001, 95% CI 1.07, 1.77). CONCLUSIONS: There is a significant discordance between older patients and their physicians regarding the perceptions of benefits and risks of using benzodiazepines for insomnia on a long term basis. The challenge is to openly discuss these perceptions in the context of the available evidence to make collaborative and informed decisions

Simultaneous TE Analysis of 19 Heliconiine Butterflies Yields Novel Insights into Rapid TE-Based Genome Diversification and Multiple SINE Births and Deaths

Transposable elements (TEs) play major roles in the evolution of genome structure and function. However, because of their repetitive nature, they are difficult to annotate and discovering the specific roles they may play in a lineage can be a daunting task. Heliconiine butterflies are models for the study of multiple evolutionary processes including phenotype evolution and hybridization. We attempted to determine how TEs may play a role in the diversification of genomes within this clade by performing a detailed examination of TE content and accumulation in 19 species whose genomes were recently sequenced. We found that TE content has diverged substantially and rapidly in the time since several subclades shared a common ancestor with each lineage harboring a unique TE repertoire. Several novel SINE lineages have been established that are restricted to a subset of species. Furthermore, the previously described SINE, Metulj, appears to have gone extinct in two subclades while expanding to significant numbers in others. This diversity in TE content and activity has the potential to impact how heliconiine butterflies continue to evolve and diverge

Analysis of chromosome positions in the interphase nucleus of Chinese hamster cells by laser-UV-microirradiation experiments

Unsynchronized cells of an essentially diploid strain of female Chinese hamster cells derived from lung tissue (CHL) were laser-UV-microirradiated (=257 nm) in the nucleus either at its central part or at its periphery. After 7–9 h postincubation with 0.5 mM caffeine, chromosome preparations were made in situ. Twenty-one and 29 metaphase spreads, respectively, with partial chromosome shattering (PCS) obtained after micro-irradiation at these two nuclear sites, were Q-banded and analyzed in detail. A positive correlation was observed between the frequency of damage of chromosomes and both their DNA content and length at metaphase. No significant difference was observed between the frequencies of damage obtained for individual chromosomes at either site of microirradiation. The frequency of joint damage of homologous chromosomes was low as compared to nonhomologous ones. Considerable variation was noted in different cells in the combinations of jointly shattered chromosomes. Evidence which justifies an interpretation of these data in terms of an interphase arrangement of chromosome territories is discussed. Our data strongly argue against somatic pairing as a regular event, and suggest a considerable variability of chromosome positions in different nuclei. However, present data do not exclude the possibility of certain non-random chromosomal arrangements in CHL-nuclei. The interphase chromosome distribution revealed by these experiments is compared with centromere-centromere, centromere-center and angle analyses of metaphase spreads and the relationship between interphase and metaphase arrangements of chromosomes is discussed

The influence of blood on the efficacy of intraperitoneally applied phospholipids for prevention of adhesions

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The formation of adhesions following abdominal surgery is a well known problem. In previous studies we demonstrated the efficacy and safety of intraperitoneally applied phospholipids in order to prevent adhesion formation. This study evaluates the influence of blood on the efficacy of intraperitoneally applied phospholipids for prevention of adhesions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In 40 Chinchilla rabbits adhesions were induced by median laparotomy, standardized abrasion of the visceral and parietal peritoneum in defined areas of the ventral abdominal wall and the caecum. The animals were randomly divided into four groups. They received either phospholipids 3.0% or normal saline (NaCl 0,9%) (5 ml/kg body weight). In 50% of the rabbits we simulated intraperitoneal bleeding by administration of blood (1,5 ml/kg body weight). The other half served as control group. Ten days following the operation the animals were sacrificed and adhesion formation was assessed by computer aided planimetry and histopathologic examination.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The median adhesion surface area in the NaCl-group (n = 9) amounted to 68,72 mm², in the NaCl+Blood-group (n = 10) 147,68 mm². In the Phospholipid (PhL)-group (n = 9) the median adhesion surface area measured 9,35 mm², in the PhL+Blood-group (n = 9) 11,95 mm². The phospholipid groups had a significantly smaller adhesion surface area (p < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Again these results confirm the efficacy of phospholipids in the prevention of adhesions in comparison to NaCl (p = 0,04). We also demonstrated the adhesion preventing effect of phospholipids in the presence of intraperitoneal blood.</p

Entangled-State Cycles of Atomic Collective-Spin States

We study quantum trajectories of collective atomic spin states of $N$ effective two-level atoms driven with laser and cavity fields. We show that interesting ``entangled-state cycles'' arise probabilistically when the (Raman) transition rates between the two atomic levels are set equal. For odd (even) $N$, there are $(N+1)/2$ ($N/2$) possible cycles. During each cycle the $N$-qubit state switches, with each cavity photon emission, between the states $(|N/2,m>\pm |N/2,-m>)/\sqrt{2}$, where $|N/2,m>$ is a Dicke state in a rotated collective basis. The quantum number $m$ ($>0$), which distinguishes the particular cycle, is determined by the photon counting record and varies randomly from one trajectory to the next. For even $N$ it is also possible, under the same conditions, to prepare probabilistically (but in steady state) the Dicke state $|N/2,0>$, i.e., an $N$-qubit state with $N/2$ excitations, which is of particular interest in the context of multipartite entanglement.Comment: 10 pages, 9 figure

General Gauge Mediation with Gauge Messengers

We generalize the General Gauge Mediation formalism to allow for the possibility of gauge messengers. Gauge messengers occur when charged matter fields of the susy-breaking sector have non-zero F-terms, which leads to tree-level, susy-breaking mass splittings in the gauge fields. A classic example is that SU(5) / SU(3) x SU(2) x U(1) gauge fields could be gauge messengers. We give a completely general, model independent, current-algebra based analysis of gauge messenger mediation of susy-breaking to the visible sector. Characteristic aspects of gauge messengers include enhanced contributions to gaugino masses, (tachyonic) sfermion mass-squareds generated already at one loop, and also at two loops, and significant one-loop A-terms, already at the messenger scale.Comment: 79 pages, 5 figure

A phase I/II study of 4 monthly courses of high-dose cyclophosphamide and thiotepa for metastatic breast cancer patients

This pilot phase I/II study intended to determine the maximum tolerated dose of cyclophosphamide and thiotepa administered on four consecutive courses with peripheral blood progenitor cell and granulocyte-colony stimulating factor support, as first-line therapy for hormone-refractory metastatic breast cancer patients. Twenty-eight patients were entered in the study. After two courses of epirubicin (120 mg m−2) and cyclophosphamide (2 g m−2) followed by granulocyte-colony stimulating factor injection and leukaphereses, patients received four cycles of cyclophosphamide and thiotepa. Each cycle was followed by peripheral blood progenitor cell and granulocyte-colony stimulating factor supports, then repeated every 28 to 35 days. Six escalating dose levels of cyclophosphamide and thiotepa were planned, beginning at cyclophosphamide 1.5 g m−2 and thiotepa 200 mg m−2. At least three patients were enrolled for each dose level. Eighteen patients completed the study. The maximum tolerated dose was 3000 mg m−2 cyclophosphamide and 400 mg m−2 thiotepa per course. Haematological toxicity was manageable on an outpatient basis and did not increase significantly with dose escalation. Dose-limiting toxicity was chemotherapy-induced immuno-suppression, which resulted in one toxic death and two life-threatening infections. Median times to treatment failure and survival were 11 and 26 months, respectively. Three patients were alive, free of disease 30 months after completion of the study. Such therapy allows for high-dose intensity and high cumulative doses on a short period of time with manageable toxicity