Estimating network related risks: A methodology and an application in the transport sector

Networks such as transportation, water, and power are critical lifelines for society. Managers plan and execute interventions to guarantee the operational state of their networks under various circumstances, including after the occurrence of (natural) hazard events. Creating an intervention program demands knowing the probable direct and indirect consequences (i.e., risk) of the various hazard events that could occur in order to be able to mitigate their effects. This paper introduces a methodology to support network managers in the quantification of the risk related to their networks. The methodology is centered on the integration of the spatial and temporal attributes of the events that need to be modeled to estimate the risk. Furthermore, the methodology supports the inclusion of the uncertainty of these events and the propagation of these uncertainties throughout the risk modeling. The methodology is implemented through a modular simulation engine that supports the updating and swapping of models according to the needs of network managers. This work demonstrates the usefulness of the methodology and simulation engine through an application to estimate the potential impact of floods and mudflows on a road network located in Switzerland. The application includes the modeling of (i) multiple time-varying hazard events; (ii) their physical and functional effects on network objects (i.e., bridges and road sections); (iii) the functional interrelationships of the affected objects; (iv) the resulting probable consequences in terms of expected costs of restoration, cost of traffic changes, and duration of network disruption; and (v) the restoration of the network.</p

Coralline algal Barium as indicator for 20th century northwestern North Atlantic surface ocean freshwater variability

During the past decades climate and freshwater dynamics in the northwestern North Atlantic have undergone major changes. Large-scale freshening episodes, related to polar freshwater pulses, have had a strong influence on ocean variability in this climatically important region. However, little is known about variability before 1950, mainly due to the lack of long-term high-resolution marine proxy archives. Here we present the first multidecadal-length records of annually resolved Ba/Ca variations from Northwest Atlantic coralline algae. We observe positive relationships between algal Ba/Ca ratios from two Newfoundland sites and salinity observations back to 1950. Both records capture episodical multi-year freshening events during the 20th century. Variability in algal Ba/Ca is sensitive to freshwater-induced changes in upper ocean stratification, which affect the transport of cold, Ba-enriched deep waters onto the shelf (highly stratified equals less Ba/Ca). Algal Ba/Ca ratios therefore may serve as a new resource for reconstructing past surface ocean freshwater changes

Argumentation in school science : Breaking the tradition of authoritative exposition through a pedagogy that promotes discussion and reasoning

The value of argumentation in science education has become internationally recognised and has been the subject of many research studies in recent years. Successful introduction of argumentation activities in learning contexts involves extending teaching goals beyond the understanding of facts and concepts, to include an emphasis on cognitive and metacognitive processes, epistemic criteria and reasoning. The authors focus on the difficulties inherent in shifting a tradition of teaching from one dominated by authoritative exposition to one that is more dialogic, involving small-group discussion based on tasks that stimulate argumentation. The paper builds on previous research on enhancing the quality of argument in school science, to focus on how argumentation activities have been designed, with appropriate strategies, resources and modelling, for pedagogical purposes. The paper analyses design frameworks, their contexts and lesson plans, to evaluate their potential for enhancing reasoning through foregrounding the processes of argumentation. Examples of classroom dialogue where teachers adopt the frameworks/plans are analysed to show how argumentation processes are scaffolded. The analysis shows that several layers of interpretation are needed and these layers need to be aligned for successful implementation. The analysis serves to highlight the potential and limitations of the design frameworks

Art as a Means to Disrupt Routine Use of Space

This paper examines the publicly visible aspects of counter-terrorism activity in pedestrian spaces as mechanisms of disruption. We discuss the objectives of counter-terrorism in terms of disruption of routine for both hostile actors and general users of public spaces, categorising the desired effects as 1) triangulation of attention; 2) creation of unexpected performance; and 3) choreographing of crowd flow. We review the potential effects of these existing forms of disruption used in counter-terrorism. We then present a palette of art, advertising, architecture, and entertainment projects that offer examples of the same disruption effects of triangulation, performance and flow. We conclude by reviewing the existing support for public art in counter-terrorism policy, and build on the argument for art as an important alternative to authority. We suggest that while advocates of authority-based disruption might regard the playfulness of some art as a weakness, the unexpectedness it offers is perhaps a key strengt

The design, construction and performance of the MICE scintillating fibre trackers

This is the Pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the link below - Copyright @ 2011 ElsevierCharged-particle tracking in the international Muon Ionisation Cooling Experiment (MICE) will be performed using two solenoidal spectrometers, each instrumented with a tracking detector based on diameter scintillating fibres. The design and construction of the trackers is described along with the quality-assurance procedures, photon-detection system, readout electronics, reconstruction and simulation software and the data-acquisition system. Finally, the performance of the MICE tracker, determined using cosmic rays, is presented.This work was supported by the Science and Technology Facilities Council under grant numbers PP/E003214/1, PP/E000479/1, PP/E000509/1, PP/E000444/1, and through SLAs with STFC-supported laboratories. This work was also supportedby the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, which is operated by the Fermi Research Alliance, under contract No. DE-AC02-76CH03000 with the U.S. Department of Energy, and by the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants PHY-0301737,PHY-0521313, PHY-0758173 and PHY-0630052. The authors also acknowledge the support of the World Premier International Research Center Initiative (WPI Initiative), MEXT, Japan

Multicentennial record of Labrador Sea primary productivity and sea-ice variability archived in coralline algal barium

Accelerated warming and melting of Arctic sea-ice has been associated with significant increases in phytoplankton productivity in recent years. Here, utilizing a multiproxy approach, we reconstruct an annually resolved record of Labrador Sea productivity related to sea-ice variability in Labrador, Canada that extends well into the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1646 AD). Barium-to-calcium ratios (Ba/Ca) and carbon isotopes (δ13C) measured in long-lived coralline algae demonstrate significant correlations to both observational and proxy records of sea-ice variability, and show persistent patterns of co-variability broadly consistent with the timing and phasing of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results indicate reduced productivity in the Subarctic Northwest Atlantic associated with AMO cool phases during the LIA, followed by a step-wise increase from 1910 to present levels—unprecedented in the last 363 years. Increasing phytoplankton productivity is expected to fundamentally alter marine ecosystems as warming and freshening is projected to intensify over the coming century

Trapped in the prison of the mind: notions of climate-induced (im)mobility decision-making and wellbeing from an urban informal settlement in Bangladesh

The concept of Trapped Populations has until date mainly referred to people ‘trapped’ in environmentally high-risk rural areas due to economic constraints. This article attempts to widen our understanding of the concept by investigating climate-induced socio-psychological immobility and its link to Internally Displaced People’s (IDPs) wellbeing in a slum of Dhaka. People migrated here due to environmental changes back on Bhola Island and named the settlement Bhola Slum after their home. In this way, many found themselves ‘immobile’ after having been mobile—unable to move back home, and unable to move to other parts of Dhaka, Bangladesh, or beyond. The analysis incorporates the emotional and psychosocial aspects of the diverse immobility states. Mind and emotion are vital to better understand people’s (im)mobility decision-making and wellbeing status. The study applies an innovative and interdisciplinary methodological approach combining Q-methodology and discourse analysis (DA). This mixed-method illustrates a replicable approach to capture the complex state of climate-induced (im)mobility and its interlinkages to people’s wellbeing. People reported facing non-economic losses due to the move, such as identity, honour, sense of belonging and mental health. These psychosocial processes helped explain why some people ended up ‘trapped’ or immobile. The psychosocial constraints paralysed them mentally, as well as geographically. More empirical evidence on how climate change influences people’s wellbeing and mental health will be important to provide us with insights in how to best support vulnerable people having faced climatic impacts, and build more sustainable climate policy frameworks