Inference on extended-spectrum beta-lactamase Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae data through SMC<SUP>2</SUP>

Abstract We propose a novel stochastic model for the spread of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria in a population, together with an efficient algorithm for fitting such a model to sample data. We introduce an individual-based model for the epidemic, with the state of the model determining which individuals are colonised by the bacteria. The transmission rate of the epidemic takes into account both individuals’ locations, individuals’ covariates, seasonality, and environmental effects. The state of our model is only partially observed, with data consisting of test results from individuals from a sample of households. Fitting our model to data is challenging due to the large state space of our model. We develop an efficient SMC2 algorithm to estimate parameters and compare models for the transmission rate. We implement this algorithm in a computationally efficient manner by using the scale invariance properties of the underlying epidemic model. Our motivating application focuses on the dynamics of community-acquired extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae, using data collected as part of the Drivers of Resistance in Uganda and Malawi project. We infer the parameters of the model and learn key epidemic quantities such as the effective reproduction number, spatial distribution of prevalence, household cluster dynamics, and seasonality.</jats:p

Free Energy Minimizers for a Two--Species Model with Segregation and Liquid-Vapor Transition

We study the coexistence of phases in a two--species model whose free energy is given by the scaling limit of a system with long range interactions (Kac potentials) which are attractive between particles of the same species and repulsive between different species.Comment: 32 pages, 1 fig, plain tex, typeset twic

Outbreak of severe vomiting in dogs associated with a canine enteric coronavirus, United Kingdom

The lack of population health surveillance for companion animal populations leaves them vulnerable to the effects of novel diseases without means of early detection. We present evidence on the effectiveness of a system that enabled early detection and rapid response to a canine gastroenteritis outbreak in the United Kingdom. In January 2020, prolific vomiting among dogs was sporadically reported in the United Kingdom. Electronic health records from a nationwide sentinel network of veterinary practices confirmed a significant increase in dogs with signs of gastroenteric disease. Male dogs and dogs living with other vomiting dogs were more likely to be affected. Diet and vaccination status were not associated with the disease; however, a canine enteric coronavirus was significantly associated with illness. The system we describe potentially fills a gap in surveillance in neglected populations and could provide a blueprint for other countries

Quantitative measurements of inequality in geographic accessibility to pediatric care in Oita Prefecture, Japan: Standardization with complete spatial randomness

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A quantitative measurement of inequality in geographic accessibility to pediatric care as well as that of mean distance or travel time is very important for priority setting to ensure fair access to pediatric facilities. However, conventional techniques for measuring inequality is inappropriate in geographic settings. Since inequality measures of access distance or travel time is strongly influenced by the background geographic distribution patterns, they cannot be directly used for regional comparisons of geographic accessibility. The objective of this study is to resolve this issue by using a standardization approach.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Travel times to the nearest pediatric care were calculated for all children in Oita Prefecture, Japan. Relative mean differences were considered as the inequality measure for secondary medical service areas, and were standardized with an expected value estimated from a Monte Carlo simulation based on complete spatial randomness.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The observed mean travel times in the area considered averaged 4.50 minutes, ranging from 1.83 to 7.02 minutes. The mean of the observed inequality measure was 1.1, ranging from 0.9 to 1.3. The expected values of the inequality measure varied according to the background geographic distribution pattern of children, which ranged from 0.3 to 0.7. After standardizing the observed inequality measure with the expected one, we found that the ranks of the inequality measure were reversed for the observed areas.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Using the indicator proposed in this paper, it is possible to compare the inequality in geographic accessibility among regions. Such a comparison may facilitate priority setting in health policy and planning.</p

A spatio-temporal framework for modelling wastewater concentration during the COVID-19 pandemic

The potential utility of wastewater-based epidemiology as an early warning tool has been explored widely across the globe during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Methods to detect the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater were developed early in the pandemic, and extensive work has been conducted to evaluate the relationship between viral concentration and COVID-19 case numbers at the catchment areas of sewage treatment works (STWs) over time. However, no attempt has been made to develop a model that predicts wastewater concentration at fine spatio-temporal resolutions covering an entire country, a necessary step towards using wastewater monitoring for the early detection of local outbreaks. We consider weekly averages of flow-normalised viral concentration, reported as the number of SARS-CoV-2N1 gene copies per litre (gc/L) of wastewater available at 303 STWs over the period between 1 June 2021 and 30 March 2022. We specify a spatially continuous statistical model that quantifies the relationship between weekly viral concentration and a collection of covariates covering socio-demographics, land cover and virus associated genomic characteristics at STW catchment areas while accounting for spatial and temporal correlation. We evaluate the model’s predictive performance at the catchment level through 10-fold cross-validation. We predict the weekly viral concentration at the population-weighted centroid of the 32,844 lower super output areas (LSOAs) in England, then aggregate these LSOA predictions to the Lower Tier Local Authority level (LTLA), a geography that is more relevant to public health policy-making. We also use the model outputs to quantify the probability of local changes of direction (increases or decreases) in viral concentration over short periods (e.g. two consecutive weeks). The proposed statistical framework can predict SARS-CoV-2 viral concentration in wastewater at high spatio-temporal resolution across England. Additionally, the probabilistic quantification of local changes can be used as an early warning tool for public health surveillance

Informal Employment

The myth surrounding negative connotation of informal employment / informal economy work engagement is one that needs to be revisited as research ventures must be pursued in the direction of encouraging those engaged in it to feel quite elated about their boldness in becoming actively involved in economic development activities. Equally, sensitive approaches should be pursued in pursuance of government statutory obligations in addressing core services like expenditures connected with education and health for example, which can only be achieved through revenue raised from genuine contributions made by the workforce, be it through formal or informal work engagement

Dual-Earner Family Policies at Work for Single-Parent Families

Family dynamics are changing and single-parent families are becoming more common across countries. In their flagship report “Progress of the World’s Women, 2019–2020,” UN Women (2019) demonstrated that, contrary to popular belief, couples with children do not constitute a majority of all families, but rather there are many different types of families. Single parenthood is considered a “new social risk” in poverty and inequality (Bonoli, 2013). Therefore, policy makers and legislators have designed targeted policy specifically for single parents, such as targeted child benefits to single parents. In addition, legislation and social policy have been designed and implemented specifically for single parents, such as child support and family law such as child custody and shared residence. This study takes a different approach, based on the universalist argument that without adequate social protection that benefits all families, those families that are more vulnerable are often hit the hardest. We focus on family policies, and specifically we examine whether and to what extent single parents benefit from the same family policies that are available to all families with children

Expansion of the human μ-opioid receptor gene architecture: novel functional variants

The μ-opioid receptor (OPRM1) is the principal receptor target for both endogenous and exogenous opioid analgesics. There are substantial individual differences in human responses to painful stimuli and to opiate drugs that are attributed to genetic variations in OPRM1. In searching for new functional variants, we employed comparative genome analysis and obtained evidence for the existence of an expanded human OPRM1 gene locus with new promoters, alternative exons and regulatory elements. Examination of polymorphisms within the human OPRM1 gene locus identified strong association between single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs563649 and individual variations in pain perception. SNP rs563649 is located within a structurally conserved internal ribosome entry site (IRES) in the 5′-UTR of a novel exon 13-containing OPRM1 isoforms (MOR-1K) and affects both mRNA levels and translation efficiency of these variants. Furthermore, rs563649 exhibits very strong linkage disequilibrium throughout the entire OPRM1 gene locus and thus affects the functional contribution of the corresponding haplotype that includes other functional OPRM1 SNPs. Our results provide evidence for an essential role for MOR-1K isoforms in nociceptive signaling and suggest that genetic variations in alternative OPRM1 isoforms may contribute to individual differences in opiate responses