Real-time prediction with U.K. monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime

Detection of selection signatures in farmed coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) using dense genome-wide information

Animal domestication and artificial selection give rise to gradual changes at the genomic level in populations. Subsequent footprints of selection, known as selection signatures or selective sweeps, have been traced in the genomes of many animal livestock species by exploiting variation in linkage disequilibrium patterns and/or reduction of genetic diversity. Domestication of most aquatic species is recent in comparison with land animals, and salmonids are one of the most important fish species in aquaculture. Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch), cultivated primarily in Chile, has been subjected to breeding programs to improve growth, disease resistance traits, and flesh color. This study aimed to identify selection signatures that may be involved in adaptation to culture conditions and traits of productive interest. To do so, individuals of two domestic populations cultured in Chile were genotyped with 200 thousand SNPs, and analyses were conducted using iHS, XP-EHH and CLR. Several signatures of selection on different chromosomal regions were detected across both populations. Some of the identified regions under selection contained genes such anapc2, alad, chp2 and myn, which have been previously associated with body weight in Atlantic salmon, or sec24d and robo1, which have been associated with resistance to Piscirickettsia salmonis in coho salmon. Findings in our study can contribute to an integrated genome-wide map of selection signatures, to help identify the genetic mechanisms of phenotypic diversity in coho salmon

Regulatory Processes That Control Haploid Expression of Salmon Sperm mRNAs

Objective  Various stages of mRNA processing are necessary for functionally important genes required during late-stage sperm differentiation. Protein–RNA complexes form that edit, stabilize, store, deliver, localize and regulate translation of sperm mRNAs. These regulatory processes are often directed by recognition sequence elements and the particular composition of the proteins associated with the mRNAs. Previous work has shown that the cAMP response element modulator (CREM), estrogen receptor-alpha (ERα) and forkhead box L2A (FOXL2A) proteins are present in late-stage salmon sperm. Here we investigate whether these and other regulatory proteins might control processing of mRNAs not expressed until the haploid stage of development. We also examine regulatory processes that prepare and present mRNAs that generate unique products essential for differentiating sperm (i.e. for flagellar assembly and function). Results  We provide evidence for potential sperm-specific recognition elements in 5′-untranslated regions (utrs) that may bind CREM, ERα, FOXL2A, Y-box and other proteins. We show that changes within the 5′-utrs and open reading frames of some sperm genes lead to distinct protein termini that may provide specific interfaces necessary for localization and function within the paternal gamete

N-body Gravity and the Schroedinger Equation

We consider the problem of the motion of $N$ bodies in a self-gravitating system in two spacetime dimensions. We point out that this system can be mapped onto the quantum-mechanical problem of an N-body generalization of the problem of the H$_{2}^{+}$ molecular ion in one dimension. The canonical gravitational N-body formalism can be extended to include electromagnetic charges. We derive a general algorithm for solving this problem, and show how it reduces to known results for the 2-body and 3-body systems.Comment: 15 pages, Latex, references added, typos corrected, final version that appears in CQ

Managerial decision making under uncertainty: the case of Twenty20 cricket

We consider managerial decision making by examining the impact of decisions taken by cricket captains on Twenty20 International (T20I) match outcomes. In particular, we examine whether pressure from external commentators is associated with suboptimal decision making by captains. Using data from over 300 T20I matches, we find little evidence that either winning the toss or choosing to bat first improves the likelihood of winning. Despite this, we find that captains in T20I cricket are significantly more likely to choose to bat rather than bowl after winning the toss, a finding that is consistent with social pressure constraining captains’ decision making

Design of beam optics for the Future Circular Collider e+e- -collider rings

A beam optics scheme has been designed for the Future Circular Collider-e+e- (FCC-ee). The main characteristics of the design are: beam energy 45 to 175 GeV, 100 km circumference with two interaction points (IPs) per ring, horizontal crossing angle of 30 mrad at the IP and the crab-waist scheme [1] with local chromaticity correction. The crab-waist scheme is implemented within the local chromaticity correction system without additional sextupoles, by reducing the strength of one of the two sextupoles for vertical chromatic correction at each side of the IP. So-called "tapering" of the magnets is applied, which scales all fields of the magnets according to the local beam energy to compensate for the effect of synchrotron radiation (SR) loss along the ring. An asymmetric layout near the interaction region reduces the critical energy of SR photons on the incoming side of the IP to values below 100 keV, while matching the geometry to the beam line of the FCC proton collider (FCC-hh) [2] as closely as possible. Sufficient transverse/longitudinal dynamic aperture (DA) has been obtained, including major dynamical effects, to assure an adequate beam lifetime in the presence of beamstrahlung and top-up injection. In particular, a momentum acceptance larger than +/-2% has been obtained, which is better than the momentum acceptance of typical collider rings by about a factor of 2. The effects of the detector solenoids including their compensation elements are taken into account as well as synchrotron radiation in all magnets. The optics presented in this paper is a step toward a full conceptual design for the collider. A number of issues have been identified for further study

Genomic Organization of Duplicated Major Histocompatibility Complex Class I Regions in Atlantic Salmon (Salmo Salar)

Background: We have previously identified associations between major histocompatibility complex(MHC) class I and resistance towards bacterial and viral pathogens in Atlantic salmon. To evaluate if onlyMHC or also closely linked genes contributed to the observed resistance we ventured into sequencing ofthe duplicated MHC class I regions of Atlantic salmon.Results: Nine BACs covering more than 500 kb of the two duplicated MHC class I regions of Atlanticsalmon were sequenced and the gene organizations characterized. Both regions contained the proteasomecomponents PSMB8, PSMB9, PSMB9-like and PSMB10 in addition to the transporter for antigen processingTAP2, as well as genes for KIFC1, ZBTB22, DAXX, TAPBP, BRD2, COL11A2, RXRB and SLC39A7. TheIA region contained the recently reported MHC class I Sasa-ULA locus residing approximately 50 kbupstream of the major Sasa-UBA locus. The duplicated class IB region contained an MHC class I locusresembling the rainbow trout UCA locus, but although transcribed it was a pseudogene. No other MHCclass I-like genes were detected in the two duplicated regions. Two allelic BACs spanning the UBA locushad 99.2% identity over 125 kb, while the IA region showed 82.5% identity over 136 kb to the IB region.The Atlantic salmon IB region had an insert of 220 kb in comparison to the IA region containing threechitin synthase genes.Conclusion: We have characterized the gene organization of more than 500 kb of the two duplicatedMHC class I regions in Atlantic salmon. Although Atlantic salmon and rainbow trout are closely related,the gene organization of their IB region has undergone extensive gene rearrangements. The Atlanticsalmon has only one class I UCA pseudogene in the IB region while trout contains the four MHC UCA, UDA,UEA and UFA class I loci. The large differences in gene content and most likely function of the salmon andtrout class IB region clearly argues that sequencing of salmon will not necessarily provide informationrelevant for trout and vice versa

Joint Elastic Side-Scattering Lidar and Raman Lidar Measurements of Aerosol Optical Properties in South East Colorado

We describe an experiment, located in south-east Colorado, USA, that measured aerosol optical depth profiles using two Lidar techniques. Two independent detectors measured scattered light from a vertical UV laser beam. One detector, located at the laser site, measured light via the inelastic Raman backscattering process. This is a common method used in atmospheric science for measuring aerosol optical depth profiles. The other detector, located approximately 40km distant, viewed the laser beam from the side. This detector featured a 3.5m2 mirror and measured elastically scattered light in a bistatic Lidar configuration following the method used at the Pierre Auger cosmic ray observatory. The goal of this experiment was to assess and improve methods to measure atmospheric clarity, specifically aerosol optical depth profiles, for cosmic ray UV fluorescence detectors that use the atmosphere as a giant calorimeter. The experiment collected data from September 2010 to July 2011 under varying conditions of aerosol loading. We describe the instruments and techniques and compare the aerosol optical depth profiles measured by the Raman and bistatic Lidar detectors.Comment: 34 pages, 16 figure