ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC MODELS OF SUSTAINABLE HARVEST FOR AN ENDANGERED BUT EXOTIC MEGAHERBIVORE IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

ABSTRACT. How can one manage wildlife under a suite of competing values? In isolation, the ecological economics of native wildlife harvest, threatened species conservation and control of exotic species are all well established sub-disciplines of wildlife management. However, the wild banteng (Bos javanicus) population of northern Australia represents an interesting combination of these aspirations. A native bovid of Southeast Asia now 'endangered' in its native range, banteng were introduced into northern Australia in 1849. Today, a population of 8,000 10,000 resides on one small, isolated peninsula in western Arnhem Land, Northern Territory and is harvested by both recreational (trophy) and aboriginal subsistence hunters. Indigenous, industry and conservationist stakeholders differ in their requirements for population management. Here we analyze the ecological and economic costs/benefits of a series of potential harvest management options for Australia's banteng population, with the aim being either to: (1) maximize sustainable yield (MSY); (2) maximize harvest of trophy males; (3) maximize indigenous off-take; (4) suppress density or completely eradicate the population; (5) minimize risk of extinction whilst limiting range expansion; (6) scenarios incorporating two or more of options 1 5. The modeling framework employed stochastic, density-regulated matrix population models with life-history parameters derived from (i) allometric relationships (for estimating r max , generation length, fecundity and densities for a banteng-sized mammal) and (ii) measured For each management option, we present a simple economic analysis that incorporates estimated costs of management implementation and associated profits projected. Results demonstrate that revenue of >AU$200,000 is possible from meat production and safari hunting without compromising long-term population stability or the conservation status of this endangered bovid

Continuity of cannabis use and violent offending over the life course

Although the association between cannabis use and violence has been reported in the literature, the precise nature of this relationship, especially the directionality of the association, is unclear. Young males from the Cambridge Study of Delinquent Development (n = 411) were followed up between the ages of 8 and 56 years to prospectively investigate the association between cannabis use and violence. A multi-wave (eight assessments, T1–T8) follow-up design was employed that allowed temporal sequencing of the variables of interest and the analysis of violent outcome measures obtained from two sources: (i) criminal records (violent conviction); and (ii) self-reports. A combination of analytic approaches allowing inferences as to the directionality of associations was employed, including multivariate logistic regression analysis, fixed-effects analysis and cross-lagged modelling. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that compared with never-users, continued exposure to cannabis (use at age 18, 32 and 48 years) was associated with a higher risk of subsequent violent behaviour, as indexed by convictions [odds ratio (OR) 7.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.19–23.59] or self-reports (OR 8.9, 95% CI 2.37–46.21). This effect persisted after controlling for other putative risk factors for violence. In predicting violence, fixed-effects analysis and cross-lagged modelling further indicated that this effect could not be explained by other unobserved time-invariant factors. Furthermore, these analyses uncovered a bi-directional relationship between cannabis use and violence. Together, these results provide strong indication that cannabis use predicts subsequent violent offending, suggesting a possible causal effect, and provide empirical evidence that may have implications for public policy

Potential Environmental Impacts of Hydrogen-based Transportation and Power Systems

Hydrogen (H2) offers advantages as an energy carrier: minimal discharge of pollutants, production from multiple sources, increased thermodynamic efficiencies compared to fossil fuels, and reduced dependence on foreign oil. However, potential impacts from the H2 generation processes, transport and distribution of H2, and releases of H2 into the atmosphere have been proposed. The goal of this project was to analyze the effects of emissions of hydrogen, the six criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases on climate, human health, materials and structures. This project was part of a larger effort by DOE to assess the life-cycle costs and benefits and environmental impacts to inform decisions regarding future hydrogen research. Technical Approach: A modeling approach was developed and used to evaluate the potential environmental effects associated with the conversion of the on-road vehicle fleet from fossil-fuel vehicles to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. GATOR-GCMOM was the primary tool used to predict atmospheric concentrations of gases and aerosols for selected scenarios. This model accounts for all feedbacks among major atmospheric processes based on first principles. The future scenarios and the emission rates selected for this analysis of hydrogen environmental effects are based on the scenarios developed by IPCC. The scenarios selected for the model simulations are a 2000 and 2050 A1B base cases, and a 2050 A1B case with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs). The hydrogen fuel cell scenario assumed conversion of 90% of fossil-fuel on-road vehicles (FFOV) in developed countries and 45% of FFOVs vehicles in other countries to HFCVs, with the H2 produced by steam-reforming of natural gas (SHFCVs). Simulations were conducted to examine the effect of converting the worldâÂÂs FFOVs to HFCVs, where the H2 is produced by wind-powered electrolysis (WHFCVs). In all scenarios a 3% leakage of H2 consumed was assumed. Two new models were developed that provide the ability to evaluate a wider range of conditions and address some of the uncertainties that exist in the evaluation of hydrogen emissions. A simplified global hydrogen cycle model that simulates hydrogen dynamics in the troposphere and stratosphere was developed. A Monte Carlo framework was developed to address hydrogen uptake variability for different types of ecosystems. Findings 1.Converting vehicles worldwide in 2050 to SHFCVs at 90% penetration in developed countries and 45% penetration in other countries is expected to reduce NOx, CO, CO2, CH4, some other organic gases, ozone, PAN, black carbon, and other particle components in the troposphere, but may increase some other organic gases, depending on emissions. Conversion to SHFCVs is also expected to cool the troposphere and warm the stratosphere, but to a lesser extent than WHFCVs. Finally, SHFCVs are expected to increase UTLS ozone while decreasing upper stratospheric ozone, but to a lesser extent than WHFCVs. 2.The predicted criteria pollutant concentrations from the GATOR-GCMOM simulations indicated that near-surface annual mean concentrations in the US are likely to increase from the 2000 base case to the 2050 A1B base case for CO2 and ozone due to the increased economic activity, but to decrease for CO, NO2, SO2, and PM10 due to improved pollution control equipment and energy efficiencies. The shift to SHFCVs in 2050 was predicted to result in decreased concentrations for all the criteria pollutants, except for SO2 and PM10. The higher predicted concentrations for SO2 and PM10 were attributed to increased emissions using the steam-reforming method to generate H2. If renewable methods such as wind-based electrolysis were used to generate H2, the emissions of SO2 and PM10 would be lower. 3.The effects on air quality, human health, ecosystem, and building structures were quantified by comparing the GATOR-GCMOM model output and accepted health and ecosystem effects levels and ambient air quality criteria. Shifting to HFCVs is expected to result in improved air quality and benefits to human health. Shifting to HFCVs is unlikely to result in damage to buildings. 4.Results are thought to be robust for larger leakage rates of H2 and for greater penetrations of HFCVs, since the controlling factor for stratospheric ozone impacts is the reduction in fossil-fuel greenhouse gases and the resulting surface cooling, which reduces water vapor emissions and stratospheric warming, which increases tropopause stability reducing water vapor transport to the stratosphere. 5.The supplemental modeling results were generally supportive of the results from the GATOR-GCMOM simulations, and recommendations for additional analyses were made. Extending the duration of the simulation to coincide with the time required for hydrogen mixing ratios to attain a steady state condition was recommended. Further evaluation of algorithms to describe hydrogen uptake in the model was also recommended

Late Miocene to early Pliocene biofacies of Wanganui and Taranaki Basins, New Zealand: Applications to paleoenvironmental and sequence stratigraphic analysis

The Matemateaonga Formation is late Miocene to early Pliocene (upper Tongaporutuan to lower Opoitian New Zealand Stages) in age. The formation comprises chiefly shellbeds, siliciclastic sandstone, and siltstone units and to a lesser extent non-marine and shallow marine conglomerate and rare paralic facies. The Matemateaonga Formation accumulated chiefly in shelf paleoenvironments during basement onlap and progradation of a late Miocene to early Pliocene continental margin wedge in the Wanganui and Taranaki Basins. The formation is strongly cyclothemic, being characterised by recurrent vertically stacked facies successions, bounded by sequence boundaries. These facies accumulated in a range of shoreface to mid-outer shelf paleoenvironments during conditions of successively oscillating sea level. This sequential repetition of facies and the biofacies they enclose are the result of sixth-order glacio-eustatic cyclicity. Macrofaunal associations have been identified from statistical analysis of macrofossil occurrences collected from multiple sequences. Each association is restricted to particular lithofacies and stratal positions and shows a consistent order and/or position within the sequences. This pattern of temporal paleoecologic change appears to be the result of lateral, facies-related shifting of broad biofacies belts, or habitat-tracking, in response to fluctuations of relative sea level, sediment flux, and other associated paleoenvironmental variables. The associations also show strong similarity in terms of their generic composition to biofacies identified in younger sedimentary strata and the modern marine benthic environment in New Zealand

Enteropathogen antibody dynamics and force of infection among children in low-resource settings.

Little is known about enteropathogen seroepidemiology among children in low-resource settings. We measured serological IgG responses to eight enteropathogens (Giardia intestinalis, Cryptosporidium parvum, Entamoeba histolytica, Salmonella enterica, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, Vibrio cholerae, Campylobacter jejuni, norovirus) in cohorts from Haiti, Kenya, and Tanzania. We studied antibody dynamics and force of infection across pathogens and cohorts. Enteropathogens shared common seroepidemiologic features that enabled between-pathogen comparisons of transmission. Overall, exposure was intense: for most pathogens the window of primary infection was <3 years old; for highest transmission pathogens primary infection occurred within the first year. Longitudinal profiles demonstrated significant IgG boosting and waning above seropositivity cutoffs, underscoring the value of longitudinal designs to estimate force of infection. Seroprevalence and force of infection were rank-preserving across pathogens, illustrating the measures provide similar information about transmission heterogeneity. Our findings suggest antibody response can be used to measure population-level transmission of diverse enteropathogens in serologic surveillance

The Spatial Distribution of the Galactic First Stars I: High-Resolution N-body Approach

We study the spatial distribution of Galactic metal-free stars by combining an extremely high-resolution (7.8 X 10^5 solar masses per particle) Cold Dark Matter N-body simulation of the Milky-Way with a semi-analytic model of metal enrichment. This approach allows us to resolve halos with virial temperatures down to the 10^4K atomic cooling limit, and it is sufficiently flexible to make a number of robust conclusions, despite the extremely uncertain properties of the first stars. Galactic metal-free stars are formed over a large redshift range, which peaks at z~10, but continues down to z~5, contributing stars at wide range of Galactocentric radii. Stars containing only metals generated by primordial stars are similarly widespread. Neither changing the efficiency of metal dispersal by two orders of magnitude, nor drastically changing the approximations in our semi-analytical model can affect these result. Thus, if they have sufficiently long lifetimes, a significant number of stars formed in initially primordial star clusters should be found in the nearby Galactic halo regardless of the specifics of metal-free star formation. Observations of metal abundances in Galactic halo stars should be taken as directly constraining the properties of primordial stars, and the lack of metal-free halo stars today should be taken as strongly suggesting a 0.8 solar mass lower limit on the primordial initial mass function.Comment: 17 Pages, ApJ, in Press. Higher resolution version available here: http://www.ociw.edu/~dkawata/for/evan/draft/final/ms.pd

Obesity: A Biobehavioral Point of View

Excerpt: If you ask an overweight person, “Why are you fat?’, you will, almost invariably, get the answer, “Because 1 eat too much.” You will get this answer in spite of the fact that of thirteen studies, six find no significant differences in the caloric intake of obese versus nonobese subjects, five report that the obese eat significantly less than the nonobese, and only two report that they eat significantly more

Predictors of contraction and expansion of area of occupancy for British birds

Copyright © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal SocietyGeographical range dynamics are driven by the joint effects of abiotic factors, human ecosystem modifications, biotic interactions and the intrinsic organismal responses to these. However, the relative contribution of each component remains largely unknown. Here, we compare the contribution of life-history attributes, broad-scale gradients in climate and geographical context of species’ historical ranges, as predictors of recent changes in area of occupancy for 116 terrestrial British breeding birds (74 contractors, 42 expanders) between the early 1970s and late 1990s. Regional threat classifications demonstrated that the species of highest conservation concern showed both the largest contractions and the smallest expansions. Species responded differently to climate depending on geographical distribution—northern species changed their area of occupancy (expansion or contraction) more in warmer and drier regions, whereas southern species changed more in colder and wetter environments. Species with slow life history (larger body size) tended to have a lower probability of changing their area of occupancy than species with faster life history, whereas species with greater natal dispersal capacity resisted contraction and, counterintuitively, expansion. Higher geographical fragmentation of species' range also increased expansion probability, possibly indicating a release from a previously limiting condition, for example through agricultural abandonment since the 1970s. After accounting statistically for the complexity and nonlinearity of the data, our results demonstrate two key aspects of changing area of occupancy for British birds: (i) climate is the dominant driver of change, but direction of effect depends on geographical context, and (ii) all of our predictors generally had a similar effect regardless of the direction of the change (contraction versus expansion). Although we caution applying results from Britain's highly modified and well-studied bird community to other biogeographic regions, our results do indicate that a species' propensity to change area of occupancy over decadal scales can be explained partially by a combination of simple allometric predictors of life-history pace, average climate conditions and geographical context.Australian Research CouncilIntegrated Program of IC&DTFCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia

The changing nature of labour regulation: the distinctiveness of the National Agreement for the Engineering Construction Industry

The article addresses the changing nature of labour regulation through analysis of the National Agreement for the Engineering Construction Industry, originating in 1981. It shows how multiple spatial regulatory scales, the changing coalitions of actors involved, employer and client engagement and labour agency have been critical to National Agreement for the Engineering Construction Industry's survival

Elastic constants of nematic liquid crystals of uniaxial symmetry

We study in detail the influence of molecular interactions on the Frank elastic constants of uniaxial nematic liquid crystals composed of molecules of cylindrical symmetry. A brief summary of the status of theoretical development for the elastic constants of nematics is presented. Considering a pair potential having both repulsive and attractive parts numerical calculations are reported for three systems MBBA, PAA and 8OCB. For these systems the length-to-width ratio ${x_0}$ is estimated from the experimentally proposed structure of the molecules. The repulsive interaction is represented by a repulsion between hard ellipsoids of revolution (HER) and the attractive potential is represented by the quadrupole and dispersion interactions. From the numerical results we observe that in the density range of nematics the contribution of the quadrupole and dispersion interactions are small as compared to the repulsive HER interaction. The inclusion of attractive interaction reduces the values of elastic constants ratios. The temperature variation of elastic constants ratios are reported and compared with the experimental values. A reasonably good agreement between theory and experiment is observed