Forecasting the SST space-time variability of the Alboran Sea with genetic algorithms

We propose a nonlinear ocean forecasting technique based on a combination of genetic algorithms and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The method is used to forecast the space-time variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Alboran Sea. The genetic algorithm finds the equations that best describe the behaviour of the different temporal amplitude functions in the EOF decomposition and, therefore, enables global forecasting of the future time-variability.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures; latex compiled with agums.st

Dynamics of Elastic Excitable Media

The Burridge-Knopoff model of earthquake faults with viscous friction is equivalent to a van der Pol-FitzHugh-Nagumo model for excitable media with elastic coupling. The lubricated creep-slip friction law we use in the Burridge-Knopoff model describes the frictional sliding dynamics of a range of real materials. Low-dimensional structures including synchronized oscillations and propagating fronts are dominant, in agreement with the results of laboratory friction experiments. Here we explore the dynamics of fronts in elastic excitable media.Comment: Int. J. Bifurcation and Chaos, to appear (1999

Spatiotemporal Chaos, Localized Structures and Synchronization in the Vector Complex Ginzburg-Landau Equation

We study the spatiotemporal dynamics, in one and two spatial dimensions, of two complex fields which are the two components of a vector field satisfying a vector form of the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation. We find synchronization and generalized synchronization of the spatiotemporally chaotic dynamics. The two kinds of synchronization can coexist simultaneously in different regions of the space, and they are mediated by localized structures. A quantitative characterization of the degree of synchronization is given in terms of mutual information measures.Comment: 6 pages, using bifchaos.sty (included). 7 figures. Related material, including higher quality figures, could be found at http://www.imedea.uib.es/PhysDept/publicationsDB/date.html . To appear in International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos (1999

When Madagascar produced natural rubber: a brief, forgotten yet informative history.

From 1891 to 1914, Madagascar, like other western African countries, was a production zone for forest rubber destined for export to Europe when Asian plantations where not yet sufficiently developed . Numerous species endemic to the forests of the three major Malagasy ecosystems were exploited, often with a view to maximising short term productivity without any consideration for the sustainable management of the resource. This episode represents one of the first cases of industrial exploitation of Madagascar's biological resources. Although Madagascar occupies a modest position on the world rubber market at that time, the exploitation of rubber bore major consequences for the island's forestry resources and, moreover, influenced the vision and discourse of scientists and politicians concerning their management. It was one of the factors triggering awareness of the value of Madagascar's biodiversity and the threat to which it might be exposed through poorly-controlled human activity. As a result, highly repressive and forcible legislation was introduced aimed at containing the activity practiced by local populations considered to be mostly to blame. But from the early days of French colonial rule, naturalists judged the outcomes of political decisions too weak to offer any guarantee of an effective defence. They responded by adopting an intentionally alarmist and catastrophist discourse with the object of provoking a reaction from the politicians, considered too lax. This discourse, in fact, took an about-turn from 1942-45 when the war effort led to a revitalisation of the Malagasy rubber sector as Asian production was mainly out of reach. A second consequence came in 1927 with the creation of a network of protected areas managed by naturalists, making Madagascar at that time, a pioneer in Africa. There was a simultaneous flurry of activity to promote the domestication of Malagasy rubber species, combined with the introduction of new species with high potential (Hevea brasiliensis, Castilloa elastica). However, with the emergence of far more profitable Asian rubber, all attempts at cultivation in Madagascar were abandoned when exploitation ceased to be profitable, and thus the Malagasy forests were redeemed. This episode demonstrates how it was in fact economic reality, by condemning an unprofitable sector, that was the real vehicle by which the survival of Malagasy rubber species was secured, and not the naturalists' discourse, nor the creation of protected zones, nor the promulgation of repressive legislations. This case study is of more than purely historical interest, in that it still has currency where, for example, the exploitation of Prunus africana is concerned

Improvement of radiology requisition

AbstractPurposeInadequate or incomplete information on radiology requisitions may have a substantial impact on the radiological process. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of standardization and computerization of radiology requisitions on the quality of provided data, satisfaction of hospital staff and access time.MethodsThe impact of requisition support was assessed at each step of the improvement process for inpatients: before (Step 1), after standardization (Step 2) and after computerization of radiology requisition (Step 3). The quality of information provided was assessed by proportion of missing data on MRI and CT requisitions. Satisfaction was assessed by an anonymous auto-questionnaire filled by ordering physicians, radiologists and radiology technicians. Access time was prospectively assessed.ResultsStandardization of radiology requisition resulted in a significant drop in proportion of missing data. Computerization of radiology requisition, based on the single standardized radiology requisition, further improved the quality of information reported on radiology requisitions. The median access time was significantly improved (from 5 to 3days) for the largest provider of CT requisitions.ConclusionsStandardization and computerization have a synergistic effect on the overall quality improvement. Moreover, the computerized provider order entry enables traceability of information, makes communication between radiologists and ordering physicians easier and improves examination planning

Chaos induced coherence in two independent food chains

Coherence evolution of two food web models can be obtained under the stirring effect of chaotic advection. Each food web model sustains a three--level trophic system composed of interacting predators, consumers and vegetation. These populations compete for a common limiting resource in open flows with chaotic advection dynamics. Here we show that two species (the top--predators) of different colonies chaotically advected by a jet--like flow can synchronize their evolution even without migration interaction. The evolution is charaterized as a phase synchronization. The phase differences (determined through the Hilbert transform) of the variables representing those species show a coherent evolution.Comment: 5 pages, 5 eps figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Defect Chaos of Oscillating Hexagons in Rotating Convection

Using coupled Ginzburg-Landau equations, the dynamics of hexagonal patterns with broken chiral symmetry are investigated, as they appear in rotating non-Boussinesq or surface-tension-driven convection. We find that close to the secondary Hopf bifurcation to oscillating hexagons the dynamics are well described by a single complex Ginzburg-Landau equation (CGLE) coupled to the phases of the hexagonal pattern. At the bandcenter these equations reduce to the usual CGLE and the system exhibits defect chaos. Away from the bandcenter a transition to a frozen vortex state is found.Comment: 4 pages, 6 figures. Fig. 3a with lower resolution no

Wound-up phase turbulence in the Complex Ginzburg-Landau equation

We consider phase turbulent regimes with nonzero winding number in the one-dimensional Complex Ginzburg-Landau equation. We find that phase turbulent states with winding number larger than a critical one are only transients and decay to states within a range of allowed winding numbers. The analogy with the Eckhaus instability for non-turbulent waves is stressed. The transition from phase to defect turbulence is interpreted as an ergodicity breaking transition which occurs when the range of allowed winding numbers vanishes. We explain the states reached at long times in terms of three basic states, namely quasiperiodic states, frozen turbulence states, and riding turbulence states. Justification and some insight into them is obtained from an analysis of a phase equation for nonzero winding number: rigidly moving solutions of this equation, which correspond to quasiperiodic and frozen turbulence states, are understood in terms of periodic and chaotic solutions of an associated system of ordinary differential equations. A short report of some of our results has been published in [Montagne et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 77, 267 (1996)].Comment: 22 pages, 15 figures included. Uses subfigure.sty (included) and epsf.tex (not included). Related research in http://www.imedea.uib.es/Nonlinea

Neuropsychologie in tijden van COVID-19: overwegingen bij neuropsychologische diagnostiek via beeldbellen

Health and self-regulatio