phenomenological simulators of critical infrastructures

The objective of this chapter is to introduce and discuss the main phenomenological approaches that have been used within the CI M&S area. Phenomenological models are used to analyse the organizational phenomena of the society considering its complexity (finance, mobility, health) and the interactions among its different components. Within CI MA&S, different modelling approaches have been proposed and used as, for example, physical simulators (e.g. power flow simulators for electrical networks). Physical simulators are used to predict the behaviour of the physical system (the technological network) under different conditions. As an example, electrical engineers use different kind of simulators during planning and managing of network activities for different purposes: (1) power flow simulators for the evaluation of electrical network configuration changes (that can be both deliberate changes or results from of the effects of accidents and/or attacks) and contingency analysis, (2) real time simulators for the design of protection devices and new controllers. For the telecommunication domain one mat resort to network traffic simulators as for example ns2/ns3 codes that allow the simulation of telecommunication networks (wired/wireless) at packet switching level and evaluate its performances. Single domains simulators can be federated to analyse the interactions among different domains. In contrast, phenomenological simulators use more abstract data and models for the interaction among the different components of the system. The chapter will describe the main characteristic of some of the main simulation approaches resulting from the ENEA and UBC efforts in the CIP and Complexity Science field

Ancient micrometeorites suggestive of an oxygen-rich Archaean upper atmosphere

It is widely accepted that Earth’s early atmosphere contained less than 0.001 per cent of the present-day atmospheric oxygen (O2) level, until the Great Oxidation Event resulted in a major rise in O2 concentration about 2.4 billion years ago1. There are multiple lines of evidence for low O2 concentrations on early Earth, but all previous observations relate to the composition of the lower atmosphere2 in the Archaean era; to date no method has been developed to sample the Archaean upper atmosphere. We have extracted fossil micrometeorites from limestone sedimentary rock that had accumulated slowly 2.7 billion years ago before being preserved in Australia’s Pilbara region. We propose that these micrometeorites formed when sand-sized particles entered Earth’s atmosphere and melted at altitudes of about 75 to 90 kilometres (given an atmospheric density similar to that of today3). Here we show that the FeNi metal in the resulting cosmic spherules was oxidized while molten, and quench-crystallized to form spheres of interlocking dendritic crystals primarily of magnetite (Fe3O4), with wüstite (FeO)+metal preserved in a few particles. Our model of atmospheric micrometeorite oxidation suggests that Archaean upper-atmosphere oxygen concentrations may have been close to those of the present-day Earth, and that the ratio of oxygen to carbon monoxide was sufficiently high to prevent noticeable inhibition of oxidation by carbon monoxide. The anomalous sulfur isotope (Δ33S) signature of pyrite (FeS2) in seafloor sediments from this period, which requires an anoxic surface environment4, implies that there may have been minimal mixing between the upper and lower atmosphere during the Archaean

Novel Experimental Simulations of the Atmospheric Injection of Meteoric Metals

A newly developed laboratory, Meteoric Ablation Simulator (MASI), is used to test model predictions of the atmospheric ablation of interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) with experimental Na, Fe, and Ca vaporization profiles. MASI is the first laboratory setup capable of performing time-resolved atmospheric ablation simulations, by means of precision resistive heating and atomic laser-induced fluorescence detection. Experiments using meteoritic IDP analogues show that at least three mineral phases (Na-rich plagioclase, metal sulfide, and Mg-rich silicate) are required to explain the observed appearance temperatures of the vaporized elements. Low melting temperatures of Na-rich plagioclase and metal sulfide, compared to silicate grains, preclude equilibration of all the elemental constituents in a single melt. The phase-change process of distinct mineral components determines the way in which Na and Fe evaporate. Ca evaporation is dependent on particle size and on the initial composition of the molten silicate. Measured vaporized fractions of Na, Fe, and Ca as a function of particle size and speed confirm differential ablation (i.e., the most volatile elements such as Na ablate first, followed by the main constituents Fe, Mg, and Si, and finally the most refractory elements such as Ca). The Chemical Ablation Model (CABMOD) provides a reasonable approximation to this effect based on chemical fractionation of a molten silicate in thermodynamic equilibrium, even though the compositional and geometric description of IDPs is simplistic. Improvements in the model are required in order to better reproduce the specific shape of the elemental ablation profiles

Pretreatment HLADQA1-HLADRB1 Testing for the Prevention of Azathioprine-Induced Pancreatitis in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Prospective Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION:Azathioprine-induced pancreatitis is an idiosyncratic and unpredictable response, occurring in up to 7% of azathioprine-exposed patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The haplotype HLADQA1-HLADRB1*07:01A\u3eC is strongly associated with azathioprine-induced pancreatitis in IBD. We aimed to evaluate whether pretreatment HLADQA1-HLADRB1*07:01A\u3eC screening will reduce the risk of azathioprine-induced pancreatitis.METHODS:Participants with IBD were screened for HLADQA1-HLADRB1*07:01A\u3eC, and participants with a variant genotype were excluded from azathioprine treatment. Wild-type participants were started on azathioprine and followed for 3 months. The incidence of pancreatitis was compared with unscreened historical controls.RESULTS:HLADQA1-HLADRB1*07:01A\u3eC screening resulted in an 11-fold reduction in the incidence of azathioprine-induced pancreatitis (n = 1/328 or 0.30% vs n = 13/373 or 3.4%). In propensity score-matched cohorts (age and sex), HLA DQA1-HLADRB1*07:01A\u3eC screening was significantly associated with a reduction in the incidence of AZA-induced pancreatitis independent of weight, glucocorticoid exposure, and smoking status (adjusted odds ratio = 0.075, 95% confidence interval = 0.01-0.58, P = 0.01). Up to 45% (n = 271/599) of participants were excluded from azathioprine therapy based on the haplotype in the HLADQA1-HLADRB1*07:01A\u3eC-screened cohort.DISCUSSION:HLADQA1-HLADRB1*07:01A\u3eC screening reduced the risk of azathioprine-induced pancreatitis; however, using this strategy to guide the use of azathioprine therapy in IBD may eliminate a large proportion of patients from being eligible for treatment with azathioprine. In regions where there is access to other IBD therapies, and given the short-term and long-term toxicities associated with azathioprine, HLADQA1-HLADRB1*07:01A\u3eC-screening may be a clinically relevant strategy for enhancing the safe use of azathioprine in IBD. In addition, cost-effectiveness analyses are needed to further solidify the utility of HLADQA1-HLADRB1*07:01A\u3eC screening in IBD populations

A large meteoritic event over Antarctica ca. 430 ka ago inferred from chondritic spherules from the Sør Rondane Mountains

Large airbursts, the most frequent hazardous impact events, are estimated to occur orders of magnitude more frequently than crater-forming impacts. However, finding traces of these events is impeded by the difficulty of identifying them in the recent geological record. Here, we describe condensation spherules found on top of Walnumfjellet in the Sør Rondane Mountains, Antarctica. Affinities with similar spherules found in EPICA Dome C and Dome Fuji ice cores suggest that these particles were produced during a single-asteroid impact ca. 430 thousand years (ka) ago. The lack of a confirmed crater on the Antarctic ice sheet and geochemical and 18O-poor oxygen isotope signatures allow us to hypothesize that the impact particles result from a touchdown event, in which a projectile vapor jet interacts with the Antarctic ice sheet. Numerical models support a touchdown scenario. This study has implications for the identification and inventory of large cosmic events on Earth

Brecciation at the grain scale within the lithologies of the Winchcombe Mighei‐like carbonaceous chondrite

The Mighei‐like carbonaceous (CM) chondrites have been altered to various extents by water–rock reactions on their parent asteroid(s). This aqueous processing has destroyed much of the primary mineralogy of these meteorites, and the degree of alteration is highly heterogeneous at both the macroscale and nanoscale. Many CM meteorites are also heavily brecciated juxtaposing clasts with different alteration histories. Here we present results from the fine‐grained team consortium study of the Winchcombe meteorite, a recent CM chondrite fall that is a breccia and contains eight discrete lithologies that span a range of petrologic subtypes (CM2.0–2.6) that are suspended in a cataclastic matrix. Coordinated multitechnique, multiscale analyses of this breccia reveal substantial heterogeneity in the extent of alteration, even in highly aqueously processed lithologies. Some lithologies exhibit the full range and can comprise nearly unaltered coarse‐grained primary components that are found directly alongside other coarse‐grained components that have experienced complete pseudomorphic replacement by secondary minerals. The preservation of the complete alteration sequence and pseudomorph textures showing tochilinite–cronstedtite intergrowths are replacing carbonates suggest that CMs may be initially more carbonate rich than previously thought. This heterogeneity in aqueous alteration extent is likely due to a combination of microscale variability in permeability and water/rock ratio generating local microenvironments as has been established previously. Nevertheless, some of the disequilibrium mineral assemblages observed, such as hydrous minerals juxtaposed with surviving phases that are typically more fluid susceptible, can only be reconciled by multiple generations of alteration, disruption, and reaccretion of the CM parent body at the grain scale

Mineralogy and petrology of comet 81P/wild 2 nucleus samples

The bulk of the comet 81P/Wild 2 (hereafter Wild 2) samples returned to Earth by the Stardust spacecraft appear to be weakly constructed mixtures of nanometer-scale grains, with occasional much larger (over 1 micrometer) ferromagnesian silicates, Fe-Ni sulfides, Fe-Ni metal, and accessory phases. The very wide range of olivine and low-Ca pyroxene compositions in comet Wild 2 requires a wide range of formation conditions, probably reflecting very different formation locations in the protoplanetary disk. The restricted compositional ranges of Fe-Ni sulfides, the wide range for silicates, and the absence of hydrous phases indicate that comet Wild 2 experienced little or no aqueous alteration. Less abundant Wild 2 materials include a refractory particle, whose presence appears to require radial transport in the early protoplanetary disk

The Winchcombe meteorite, a unique and pristine witness from the outer solar system.

Direct links between carbonaceous chondrites and their parent bodies in the solar system are rare. The Winchcombe meteorite is the most accurately recorded carbonaceous chondrite fall. Its pre-atmospheric orbit and cosmic-ray exposure age confirm that it arrived on Earth shortly after ejection from a primitive asteroid. Recovered only hours after falling, the composition of the Winchcombe meteorite is largely unmodified by the terrestrial environment. It contains abundant hydrated silicates formed during fluid-rock reactions, and carbon- and nitrogen-bearing organic matter including soluble protein amino acids. The near-pristine hydrogen isotopic composition of the Winchcombe meteorite is comparable to the terrestrial hydrosphere, providing further evidence that volatile-rich carbonaceous asteroids played an important role in the origin of Earth's water

Differential Proteome Analysis of Bone Marrow Mesenchymal Stem Cells from Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Patients

Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is a complex three-dimensional deformity of the spine. The cause and pathogenesis of scoliosis and the accompanying generalized osteopenia remain unclear despite decades of extensive research. In this study, we utilized two-dimensional fluorescence difference gel electrophoresis (2D-DIGE) coupled with mass spectrometry (MS) to analyze the differential proteome of bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (BM-MSCs) from AIS patients. In total, 41 significantly altered protein spots were detected, of which 34 spots were identified by MALDI-TOF/TOF analysis and found to represent 25 distinct gene products. Among these proteins, five related to bone growth and development, including pyruvate kinase M2, annexin A2, heat shock 27 kDa protein, γ-actin, and β-actin, were found to be dysregulated and therefore selected for further validation by Western blot analysis. At the protein level, our results supported the previous hypothesis that decreased osteogenic differentiation ability of MSCs is one of the mechanisms leading to osteopenia in AIS. In summary, we analyzed the differential BM-MSCs proteome of AIS patients for the first time, which may help to elucidate the underlying molecular mechanisms of bone loss in AIS and also increase understanding of the etiology and pathogenesis of AIS