Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions

This paper develops a forecasting procedure based on a Bayesian method for estimating vector autoregressions. The procedure is applied to ten macroeconomic variables and is shown to improve out-of-sample forecasts relative to univariate equations. Although cross-variables responses are damped by the prior, considerable interaction among the variables is shown to be captured by the estimates.We provide unconditional forecasts as of 1982:12 and 1983:3.We also describe how a model such as this can be used to make conditional projections and to analyze policy alternatives. As an example, we analyze a Congressional Budget Office forecast made in 1982:12.While no automatic causal interpretations arise from models like ours, they provide a detailed characterization of the dynamic statistical interdependence of a set of economic variables, which may help inevaluating causal hypotheses, without containing any such hypotheses themselves.

Asymmetric Conditional Volatility in International Stock Markets

Recent studies show that a negative shock in stock prices will generate more volatility than a positive shock of similar magnitude. The aim of this paper is to appraise the hypothesis under which the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns are asymmetric functions of past information. We compare the results for the Portuguese Stock Market Index PSI 20 with six other Stock Market Indices, namely the S&P 500, FTSE100, DAX 30, CAC 40, ASE 20, and IBEX 35. In order to assess asymmetric volatility we use autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity specifications known as TARCH and EGARCH. We also test for asymmetry after controlling for the effect of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns using TAR and M-TAR specifications within a VAR framework. Our results show that the conditional variance is an asymmetric function of past innovations raising proportionately more during market declines, a phenomenon known as the leverage effect. However, when we control for the effect of changes in macroeconomic variables, we find no significant evidence of asymmetric behaviour of the stock market returns. There are some signs that the Portuguese Stock Market tends to show somewhat less market efficiency than other markets since the effect of the shocks appear to take a longer time to dissipate.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure

Risperidone-induced psychosis and depression in a child with a mitochondrial disorder

OBJECTIVE: To our knowledge, this is the first published case report of an adolescent girl with a mitochondrial disorder and depression who displayed both new-onset psychotic and increased mood symptoms during treatment with risperidone. DATA: A 16-year-old girl was treated with risperidone for mood lability and impulsivity at a community hospital. Within days, she developed paranoid ideation, profound psychomotor retardation, increased depression, and fatigue. She was transferred to an inpatient psychiatric hospital, where she was taken off risperidone. Within 48 hours after discontinuation of the medication, she had complete resolution of psychotic symptoms, fatigue, and psychomotor retardation, and her depression improved. CONCLUSIONS: This observation of on-off risperidone treatment suggests that risperidone may have worsened both psychiatric and physical manifestations of the mitochondrial disorder in this adolescent. These findings are consistent with recent in vitro literature, which implicate a series of neuroleptic medications with mitochondrial dysfunction. Furthermore, the authors provide diagnostic and treatment options that are available for mitochondrial disorders, which are of interest to child psychiatrists due to the central nervous system manifestations of these disorders

Redox-Active Nanomaterials For Nanomedicine Applications

Nanomedicine utilizes the remarkable properties of nanomaterials for the diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of disease. Many of these nanomaterials have been shown to have robust antioxidative properties, potentially functioning as strong scavengers of reactive oxygen species. Conversely, several nanomaterials have also been shown to promote the generation of reactive oxygen species, which may precipitate the onset of oxidative stress, a state that is thought to contribute to the development of a variety of adverse conditions. As such, the impacts of nanomaterials on biological entities are often associated with and influenced by their specific redox properties. In this review, we overview several classes of nanomaterials that have been or projected to be used across a wide range of biomedical applications, with discussion focusing on their unique redox properties. Nanomaterials examined include iron, cerium, and titanium metal oxide nanoparticles, gold, silver, and selenium nanoparticles, and various nanoscale carbon allotropes such as graphene, carbon nanotubes, fullerenes, and their derivatives/variations. Principal topics of discussion include the chemical mechanisms by which the nanomaterials directly interact with biological entities and the biological cascades that are thus indirectly impacted. Selected case studies highlighting the redox properties of nanomaterials and how they affect biological responses are used to exemplify the biologically-relevant redox mechanisms for each of the described nanomaterials

Twisted k-graph algebras associated to Bratteli diagrams

Given a system of coverings of k-graphs, we show that the cohomology of the resulting (k+1)-graph is isomorphic to that of any one of the k-graphs in the system. We then consider Bratteli diagrams of 2-graphs whose twisted C*-algebras are matrix algebras over noncommutative tori. For such systems we calculate the ordered K-theory and the gauge-invariant semifinite traces of the resulting 3-graph C*-algebras. We deduce that every simple C*-algebra of this form is Morita equivalent to the C*-algebra of a rank-2 Bratteli diagram in the sense of Pask-Raeburn-R{\o}rdam-Sims.Comment: 28 pages, pictures prepared using tik

A framework for space-efficient string kernels

String kernels are typically used to compare genome-scale sequences whose length makes alignment impractical, yet their computation is based on data structures that are either space-inefficient, or incur large slowdowns. We show that a number of exact string kernels, like the $k$-mer kernel, the substrings kernels, a number of length-weighted kernels, the minimal absent words kernel, and kernels with Markovian corrections, can all be computed in $O(nd)$ time and in $o(n)$ bits of space in addition to the input, using just a $\mathtt{rangeDistinct}$ data structure on the Burrows-Wheeler transform of the input strings, which takes $O(d)$ time per element in its output. The same bounds hold for a number of measures of compositional complexity based on multiple value of $k$, like the $k$-mer profile and the $k$-th order empirical entropy, and for calibrating the value of $k$ using the data

The UK Clinical Research Collaboration (UKCRC) Tissue Directory and Coordination Centre: the UK’s centre for facilitating the usage of human samples for medical research

The UKCRC Tissue Directory and Coordination Centre was established to improve access to and utilisation of UK human tissue samples for medical research. The key output of the Centre is the creation of the UK’s first pan-disease Tissue Directory (https://directory.biobankinguk.org/). Any researcher can search the Directory based on a series of simple key words including disease classification, age, sex, sample type, preservation details, quality indicators and datasets available. The Directory as of April 2017 contains 100 Bioresources. Researchers seeking fresh samples can also search for facilities that offer bespoke collection services. Future work of the Centre will be to explore greater standardisation of biobanking activities across the UK and to facilitate an inter-connected research infrastructure related to the use of human biosamples

The subgroup growth spectrum of virtually free groups

For a finitely generated group $\Gamma$ denote by $\mu(\Gamma)$ the growth coefficient of $\Gamma$, that is, the infimum over all real numbers $d$ such that $s_n(\Gamma)<n!^d$. We show that the growth coefficient of a virtually free group is always rational, and that every rational number occurs as growth coefficient of some virtually free group. Moreover, we describe an algorithm to compute $\mu$