Prediction-based classification for longitudinal biomarkers

Assessment of circulating CD4 count change over time in HIV-infected subjects on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a central component of disease monitoring. The increasing number of HIV-infected subjects starting therapy and the limited capacity to support CD4 count testing within resource-limited settings have fueled interest in identifying correlates of CD4 count change such as total lymphocyte count, among others. The application of modeling techniques will be essential to this endeavor due to the typically nonlinear CD4 trajectory over time and the multiple input variables necessary for capturing CD4 variability. We propose a prediction-based classification approach that involves first stage modeling and subsequent classification based on clinically meaningful thresholds. This approach draws on existing analytical methods described in the receiver operating characteristic curve literature while presenting an extension for handling a continuous outcome. Application of this method to an independent test sample results in greater than 98% positive predictive value for CD4 count change. The prediction algorithm is derived based on a cohort of $n=270$ HIV-1 infected individuals from the Royal Free Hospital, London who were followed for up to three years from initiation of ART. A test sample comprised of $n=72$ individuals from Philadelphia and followed for a similar length of time is used for validation. Results suggest that this approach may be a useful tool for prioritizing limited laboratory resources for CD4 testing after subjects start antiretroviral therapy.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS326 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Randomized Trial of Time-Limited Interruptions of Protease Inhibitor-Based Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) vs. Continuous Therapy for HIV-1 Infection

Background The clinical outcomes of short interruptions of PI-based ART regimens remains undefined. Methods A 2-arm non-inferiority trial was conducted on 53 HIV-1 infected South African participants with viral load/ml and CD4 T cell count \u3e450 cells/µl on stavudine (or zidovudine), lamivudine and lopinavir/ritonavir. Subjects were randomized to a) sequential 2, 4 and 8-week ART interruptions or b) continuous ART (cART). Primary analysis was based on the proportion of CD4 count \u3e350 cells(c)/ml over 72 weeks. Adherence, HIV-1 drug resistance, and CD4 count rise over time were analyzed as secondary endpoints. Results The proportions of CD4 counts \u3e350 cells/µl were 82.12% for the intermittent arm and 93.73 for the cART arm; the difference of 11.95% was above the defined 10% threshold for non-inferiority (upper limit of 97.5% CI, 24.1%; 2-sided CI: −0.16, 23.1). No clinically significant differences in opportunistic infections, adverse events, adherence or viral resistance were noted; after randomization, long-term CD4 rise was observed only in the cART arm. Conclusion We are unable to conclude that short PI-based ART interruptions are non-inferior to cART in retention of immune reconstitution; however, short interruptions did not lead to a greater rate of resistance mutations or adverse events than cART suggesting that this regimen may be more forgiving than NNRTIs if interruptions in therapy occur

Metabolic and anthropometric parameters contribute to ART-mediated CD4+ T cell recovery in HIV-1-infected individuals: an observational study

Background The degree of immune reconstitution achieved in response to suppressive ART is associated with baseline individual characteristics, such as pre-treatment CD4 count, levels of viral replication, cellular activation, choice of treatment regimen and gender. However, the combined effect of these variables on long-term CD4 recovery remains elusive, and no single variable predicts treatment response. We sought to determine if adiposity and molecules associated with lipid metabolism may affect the response to ART and the degree of subsequent immune reconstitution, and to assess their ability to predict CD4 recovery. Methods We studied a cohort of 69 (48 females and 21 males) HIV-infected, treatment-naïve South African subjects initiating antiretroviral treatment (d4T, 3Tc and lopinavir/ritonavir). We collected information at baseline and six months after viral suppression, assessing anthropometric parameters, dual energy X-ray absorptiometry and magnetic resonance imaging scans, serum-based clinical laboratory tests and whole blood-based flow cytometry, and determined their role in predicting the increase in CD4 count in response to ART. Results We present evidence that baseline CD4+ T cell count, viral load, CD8+ T cell activation (CD95 expression) and metabolic and anthropometric parameters linked to adiposity (LDL/HDL cholesterol ratio and waist/hip ratio) significantly contribute to variability in the extent of CD4 reconstitution (ΔCD4) after six months of continuous ART. Conclusions Our final model accounts for 44% of the variability in CD4+ T cell recovery in virally suppressed individuals, representing a workable predictive model of immune reconstitution

Prioritizing CD4 Count Monitoring in Response to ART in Resource-Constrained Settings: A Retrospective Application of Prediction-Based Classification

Luis Montaner and colleagues retrospectively apply a potential capacity-saving CD4 count prediction tool to a cohort of HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy

Association between HIV replication and serum leptin levels: an observational study of a cohort of HIV-1-infected South African women

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Advanced HIV infection can result in lipoatrophy and wasting, even in the absence of ongoing opportunistic infections, suggesting that HIV may directly affect adipose tissue amount and distribution.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We assessed the relationship of fat (measured using anthropometry, DEXA, MRI scans) or markers related to glucose and lipid metabolism with viral load in a cross-sectional sample of 83 antiretroviral-naïve HIV-1-infected South African women. A multivariable linear model was fitted to log₁₀VL to assess the combined effect of these variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In addition to higher T cell activation, women with viral load greater than the population median had lower waist circumference, body mass index and subcutaneous abdominal fat, as well as lower serum leptin. We demonstrate that leptin serum levels are inversely associated with viral replication, independent of the amount of adipose tissue. This association is maintained after adjusting for multiple variables associated with disease progression (i.e., cellular activation and innate immunity effector levels).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results demonstrate that serum leptin levels are inversely associated with viral replication, independent of disease progression: we postulate that leptin may affect viral replication.</p

Randomized, Controlled Trial of Therapy Interruption in Chronic HIV-1 Infection

BACKGROUND: Approaches to limiting exposure to antiretroviral therapy (ART) drugs are an active area of HIV therapy research. Here we present longitudinal follow-up of a randomized, open-label, single-center study of the immune, viral, and safety outcomes of structured therapy interruptions (TIs) in patients with chronically suppressed HIV-1 infection as compared to equal follow-up of patients on continuous therapy and including a final therapy interruption in both arms. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Forty-two chronically HIV-infected patients on suppressive ART with CD4 counts higher than 400 were randomized 1:1 to either (1) three successive fixed TIs of 2, 4, and 6 wk, with intervening resumption of therapy with resuppression for 4 wk before subsequent interruption, or (2) 40 wk of continuous therapy, with a final open-ended TI in both treatment groups. Main outcome was analysis of the time to viral rebound (>5,000 copies/ml) during the open-ended TI. Secondary outcomes included study-defined safety criteria, viral resistance, therapy failure, and retention of immune reconstitution. There was no difference between the groups in time to viral rebound during the open-ended TI (continuous therapy/single TI, median [interquartile range] = 4 [1–8] wk, n = 21; repeated TI, median [interquartile range] = 5 [4–8] wk, n = 21; p = 0.36). No differences in study-related adverse events, viral set point at 12 or 20 wk of open-ended interruption, viral resistance or therapy failure, retention of CD4 T cell numbers on ART, or retention of lymphoproliferative recall antigen responses were noted between groups. Importantly, resistance detected shortly after initial viremia following the open-ended TI did not result in a lack of resuppression to less than 50 copies/ml after reinitiation of the same drug regimen. CONCLUSION: Cycles of 2- to 6-wk time-fixed TIs in patients with suppressed HIV infection failed to confer a clinically significant benefit with regard to viral suppression off ART. Also, secondary analysis showed no difference between the two strategies in terms of safety, retention of immune reconstitution, and clinical therapy failure. Based on these findings, we suggest that further clinical research on the long-term consequences of TI strategies to decrease drug exposure is warranted

Association between HIV replication and serum leptin levels: an observational study of a cohort of HIV-1-infected South African women

Background - Advanced HIV infection can result in lipoatrophy and wasting, even in the absence of ongoing opportunistic infections, suggesting that HIV may directly affect adipose tissue amount and distribution. Methods - We assessed the relationship of fat (measured using anthropometry, DEXA, MRI scans) or markers related to glucose and lipid metabolism with viral load in a cross-sectional sample of 83 antiretroviral-naïve HIV-1-infected South African women. A multivariable linear model was fitted to log10VL to assess the combined effect of these variables. Results - In addition to higher T cell activation, women with viral load greater than the population median had lower waist circumference, body mass index and subcutaneous abdominal fat, as well as lower serum leptin. We demonstrate that leptin serum levels are inversely associated with viral replication, independent of the amount of adipose tissue. This association is maintained after adjusting for multiple variables associated with disease progression (i.e., cellular activation and innate immunity effector levels). Conclusions - Our results demonstrate that serum leptin levels are inversely associated with viral replication, independent of disease progression: we postulate that leptin may affect viral replication