A methodology for long-range prediction of air transportation

A framework and methodology for long term projection of demand for aviation fuels is presented. The approach taken includes two basic components. The first was a new technique for establishing the socio-economic environment within which the future aviation industry is embedded. The concept utilized was a definition of an overall societal objective for the very long run future. Within a framework so defined, a set of scenarios by which the future will unfold are then written. These scenarios provide the determinants of the air transport industry operations and accordingly provide an assessment of future fuel requirements. The second part was the modeling of the industry in terms of an abstracted set of variables to represent the overall industry performance on a macro scale. The model was validated by testing the desired output variables from the model with historical data over the past decades

Forecast of future aviation fuels: The model

A conceptual models of the commercial air transportation industry is developed which can be used to predict trends in economics, demand, and consumption. The methodology is based on digraph theory, which considers the interaction of variables and propagation of changes. Air transportation economics are treated by examination of major variables, their relationships, historic trends, and calculation of regression coefficients. A description of the modeling technique and a compilation of historic airline industry statistics used to determine interaction coefficients are included. Results of model validations show negligible difference between actual and projected values over the twenty-eight year period of 1959 to 1976. A limited application of the method presents forecasts of air tranportation industry demand, growth, revenue, costs, and fuel consumption to 2020 for two scenarios of future economic growth and energy consumption

Forecast of Future Aviation Fuels. Part 1: Scenarios

A preliminary set of scenarios is described for depicting the air transport industry as it grows and changes, up to the year 2025. This provides the background for predicting the needs for future aviation fuels to meet the requirements of the industry as new basic sources, such as oil shale and coal, which are utilized to supplement petroleum. Five scenarios are written to encompass a range of futures from a serious resource-constrained economy to a continuous and optimistic economic growth. A unique feature is the choice of one immediate range scenario which is based on a serious interruption of economic growth occasioned by an energy shortfall. This is presumed to occur due to lags in starting a synfuels program

Structured models of cell migration incorporating molecular binding processes

The dynamic interplay between collective cell movement and the various molecules involved in the accompanying cell signalling mechanisms plays a crucial role in many biological processes including normal tissue development and pathological scenarios such as wound healing and cancer. Information about the various structures embedded within these processes allows a detailed exploration of the binding of molecular species to cell-surface receptors within the evolving cell population. In this paper we establish a general spatio-temporal-structural framework that enables the description of molecular binding to cell membranes coupled with the cell population dynamics. We first provide a general theoretical description for this approach and then illustrate it with two examples arising from cancer invasion

Characterization of the Primo-Vascular System in the Abdominal Cavity of Lung Cancer Mouse Model and Its Differences from the Lymphatic System

Cancer growth and dissemination have been extensively studied for a long time. Nevertheless, many new observations on anatomy and histopathology of cancer events are still reported such as formation of a vasculogenic-like network inside aggressive tumors. In this research, new kinds of micro-conduits, named primo-vessels, were found inside the abdominal cavity of NCI-H460 lung cancer murine xenograft models. These vascular threads were largely distributed on the surfaces of various organs and were often connected to peritoneal tumor nodules. Histological and immunofluorescent investigations showed that the primo-vessels had characteristic features that were distinctively different from those of similar-looking lymphatic vessels. They had multiple channels surrounded with loose collageneous matrices, which is in contrast to the single-channel structure of other vascular systems. The rod-shaped nuclei aligned longitudinally along the channels were assumed to be the endothelial cells of the primo-vessels, but LYVE-1, a specific marker of lymphatics, was not expressed, which indicates a clear difference from lymphatic endothelial cells. Taken together these findings on and characterization of the novel threadlike vascular structures in cancer models may have important implications for cancer prognosis and for therapy

Largest ancient fortress of South-West Asia and the western world?:Recent fieldwork at Sasanian Qaleh Iraj at Pishva, Iran

The article presents recent works at Qale Iraj, near Varamin, Iran. My short contribution is on the Middle Persian ostraka found at the site

Bacteriological and physico-chemical assessment of wastewater in different region of Tunisia: impact on human health

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In many parts of the world, health problems and diseases have often been caused by discharging untreated or inadequately treated wastewater. In this study, we aimed to control physico-chemical parameters in wastewater samples. Also, microbiological analyses were done to reveal <it>Salmonella </it>strains and each <it>Escherichia coli </it>(<it>E.coli</it>) pathotype.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>Sixty wastewater samples were collected from fifteen different regions of Tunisia. All physico-chemical parameters (pH, residual free chlorine, total suspended solids, biological oxygen demand, and chemical oxygen demand) were evaluated.</p> <p>For microbiological analyses, samples were filtered to concentrate bacteria. DNA was extracted by boiling and subjected to polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using different pairs of primers.</p> <p>The mean pH values recorded for the sampling point were above the WHO pH tolerance limit. The total suspended solids (TSS) concentrations varied between 240 mg/L and 733 mg/L in entrance points and between 13 mg/L and 76 mg/L in exit points. In entrance points, the studied wastewater has an average COD concentration that varied between 795 mg/mL to 1420 mg/mL. Whereas, BOD concentration of the wastewater ranged between 270 mg/L to 610 mg/L. In exit points, COD concentration varied between 59 mg/L and 141 mg/L, whereas BOD concentration ranged from 15 mg/L to 87 mg/L.</p> <p>The bacteriological control of wastewaters showed that, in entrance points, <it>Escherichia coli </it>(<it>E.coli</it>) was detected at the rate of 76.6%. Three <it>E.coli </it>pathotypes were found: ETEC (53.3%), EAEC (16.6%) and EIEC (6.6%).</p> <p>Concerning the ETEC isolated strains, 8 of 16 (50%) have only the heat-labile toxin gene, 5 of 16 (31.2%) present only the heat-stable toxin gene and 3 of 16 (18.7%) of strains possess both heat-labile toxin gene and heat-stable toxin gene. In exist point, the same pathotypes were found but all detected ETEC strains present only the "est" gene.</p> <p>Concerning <it>Salmonella </it>isolated strains; percentages of 66.6% and 20% were found in entrance and exit points respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Wastewaters contain a large amount of pathogenic bacteria that present a real impact on human health. Assessment wastewater treatment stations have to consider in account enterobacterial pathogens as potential pathogens that should be correctly controlled.</p

Computational Approaches and Analysis for a Spatio-Structural-Temporal Invasive Carcinoma Model

Spatio-temporal models have long been used to describe biological systems of cancer, but it has not been until very recently that increased attention has been paid to structural dynamics of the interaction between cancer populations and the molecular mechanisms associated with local invasion. One system that is of particular interest is that of the urokinase plasminogen activator (uPA) wherein uPA binds uPA receptors on the cancer cell surface, allowing plasminogen to be cleaved into plasmin, which degrades the extracellular matrix and this way leads to enhanced cancer cell migration. In this paper, we develop a novel numerical approach and associated analysis for spatio-structuro-temporal modelling of the uPA system for up to two-spatial and two-structural dimensions. This is accompanied by analytical exploration of the numerical techniques used in simulating this system, with special consideration being given to the proof of stability within numerical regimes encapsulating a central differences approach to approximating numerical gradients. The stability analysis performed here reveals instabilities induced by the coupling of the structural binding and proliferative processes. The numerical results expound how the uPA system aids the tumour in invading the local stroma, whilst the inhibitor to this system may impede this behaviour and encourage a more sporadic pattern of invasion.PostprintPeer reviewe