A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France

A simple method to estimate the size of the vaccine bank needed to control an epidemic of an exotic infectious disease in case of introduction into a country is presented. The method was applied to the case of a Lumpy Skin disease (LSD) epidemic in France. The size of the stock of vaccines needed was calculated based on a series of simple equations that use some trigonometric functions and take into account the spread of the disease, the time required to obtain good vaccination coverage and the cattle density in the affected region. Assuming a 7-weeks period to vaccinate all the animals and a spread of the disease of 7.3 km/week, the vaccination of 740 716 cattle would be enough to control an epidemic of LSD in France in 90% of the simulations (608 196 cattle would cover 75% of the simulations). The results of this simple method were then validated using a dynamic simulation model, which served as reference for the calculation of the vaccine stock required. The differences between both models in different scenarios, related with the time needed to vaccinate the animals, ranged from 7% to 10.5% more vaccines using the simple method to cover 90% of the simulations, and from 9.0% to 13.8% for 75% of the simulations. The model is easy to use and may be adapted for the control of different diseases in different countries, just by using some simple formulas and few input data

A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France

A simple method to estimate the size of the vaccine bank needed to control an epidemic of an exotic infectious disease in case of introduction into a country is presented. The method was applied to the case of a Lumpy Skin disease (LSD) epidemic in France. The size of the stock of vaccines needed was calculated based on a series of simple equations that use some trigonometric functions and take into account the spread of the disease, the time required to obtain good vaccination coverage and the cattle density in the affected region. Assuming a 7-weeks period to vaccinate all the animals and a spread of the disease of 7.3 km/week, the vaccination of 740 716 cattle would be enough to control an epidemic of LSD in France in 90% of the simulations (608 196 cattle would cover 75% of the simulations). The results of this simple method were then validated using a dynamic simulation model, which served as reference for the calculation of the vaccine stock required. The differences between both models in different scenarios, related with the time needed to vaccinate the animals, ranged from 7% to 10.5% more vaccines using the simple method to cover 90% of the simulations, and from 9.0% to 13.8% for 75% of the simulations. The model is easy to use and may be adapted for the control of different diseases in different countries, just by using some simple formulas and few input data

Failure identification for 3D linear systems

Geometric control theory is used to investigate the problem of fault detection and isolation for 3D linear systems described by Fornasini---Marchesini models with the aim using these results in applications areas such as wireless sensor networks. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a solution to this problem are established together with constructive methods for the design of observers for fault detection and identification

Long term outcome of acute pancreatitis in Italy: Results of a multicentre study

Background: In Italy, no long-term studies regarding the natural history of acute pancreatitis have been carried out. Aim: To report the results of a follow-up on a large series of patients hospitalised for pancreatitis. Methods: Data of 631 patients admitted to 35 Italian hospitals were retrospectively evaluated 51.7 ± 8.4 months after discharge. Results: The average recovery time after mild or severe pancreatitis was 28.2 and 53.4 days respectively. Fourteen sequelae were not resolved and 9 cases required late surgical intervention. Eighty patients (12.7%) had a second hospital admission. Of the patients with mild biliary pancreatitis, 67.9% underwent a cholecystectomy. The overall incidence of relapse was 12.7%. Mortality was 9.8% and no death was related to pancreatitis. Three patients died from carcinoma of the pancreas. Conclusion: Reported recovery time after an attack of pancreatitis was longer than expected in the mild forms. The treatment of sequelae was delayed beyond one year after discharge. The incidence of relapse of biliary pancreatitis in patients not undergoing a cholecystectomy was low, due to endoscopic treatment. Mortality from pancreatic-related causes is low, but there is an association with malignant pancreatic or ampullary tumours not diagnosed during the acute phase of the illness

Long term outcome of acute pancreatitis in Italy: Results of a multicentre study

Background: In Italy, no long-term studies regarding the natural history of acute pancreatitis have been carried out. Aim: To report the results of a follow-up on a large series of patients hospitalised for pancreatitis. Methods: Data of 631 patients admitted to 35 Italian hospitals were retrospectively evaluated 51.7 ± 8.4 months after discharge. Results: The average recovery time after mild or severe pancreatitis was 28.2 and 53.4 days respectively. Fourteen sequelae were not resolved and 9 cases required late surgical intervention. Eighty patients (12.7%) had a second hospital admission. Of the patients with mild biliary pancreatitis, 67.9% underwent a cholecystectomy. The overall incidence of relapse was 12.7%. Mortality was 9.8% and no death was related to pancreatitis. Three patients died from carcinoma of the pancreas. Conclusion: Reported recovery time after an attack of pancreatitis was longer than expected in the mild forms. The treatment of sequelae was delayed beyond one year after discharge. The incidence of relapse of biliary pancreatitis in patients not undergoing a cholecystectomy was low, due to endoscopic treatment. Mortality from pancreatic-related causes is low, but there is an association with malignant pancreatic or ampullary tumours not diagnosed during the acute phase of the illness. © 2013 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l