Risk Aversion and Optimal Reserve Prices in First and Second-Price Auctions

This paper analyzes the effects of buyer and seller risk aversion in first and second-price auctions. The setting is the classic one of symmetric and independent private values, with ex ante homogeneous bidders. However, the seller is able to optimally set the reserve price. In both auctions the seller’s optimal reserve price is shown to decrease in his own risk aversion, and more so in the first-price auction. Thus, greater seller risk aversion increases the ex post efficiency of both auctions, and especially that of the first-price auction. The seller’s optimal reserve price in the first-price, but not in the second-price, auction decreases in the buyers’ risk aversion. Thus, greater buyer risk aversion also increases the ex post efficiency of the first but not the second-price auction. At the interim stage, the first-price auction is preferred by all buyer types in a lower interval, as well as by the seller.first-price auction, second-price auction, risk aversion, reserve price

Risk Aversion and Optimal Reserve Prices in First and Second-Price Auctions, Second Version

This paper analyzes the effects of buyer and seller risk aversion in first and second-price auctions. The setting is the classic one of symmetric and independent private values, with ex ante homogeneous bidders. However, the seller is able to optimally set the reserve price. In both auctions the seller’s optimal reserve price is shown to decrease in his own risk aversion, and more so in the first-price auction. Thus, greater seller risk aversion increases the ex post efficiency of both auctions, and especially that of the first-price auction. The seller’s optimal reserve price in the first-price, but not in the second-price, auction decreases in the buyers’ risk aversion. Thus, greater buyer risk aversion also increases the ex post efficiency of the first but not the second-price auction. At the interim stage, the first-price auction is preferred by all buyer types in a lower interval, as well as by the seller.first-price auction, second-price auction, risk aversion, reserve price

Premium Auctions and Risk Preferences: An Experimental Study

In premium auctions, the highest losing bidder receives a reward from the seller. This paper studies the private value English premium auction (EPA) for different risk attitudes of bidders. We explicitly derive the symmetric equilibrium for bidders with CARA utilities and conduct an experimental study to test the theoretical predictions. In our experiment, subjects are sorted into risk-averse and risk loving groups. We find that revenues in the EPA are significantly higher when bidders are risk loving rather than risk averse. These results are partly consistent with theory and confirm the general view that bidders’ risk preferences constitute an important factor that affects bidding behavior and consequently also the seller’s expected revenue. However, individual subjects rarely follow the equilibrium strategy and as a result, revenue in our experiment is lower than in the symmetric equilibrium

Measuring dynamic changes in the spatial pattern and connectivity of surface waters based on landscape and graph metrics: A case study of henan province in central china

An understanding of the scientific layout of surface water space is crucial for the sustainable development of human society and the ecological environment. The objective of this study was to use land-use/land-cover data to identify the spatiotemporal dynamic change processes and the influencing factors over the past three decades in Henan Province, central China. Multidisciplinary theories (landscape ecology and graph theory) and methods (GIS spatial analysis and SPSS correlation analysis) were used to quantify the dynamic changes in surface water pattern and connectivity. Our results revealed that the water area decreased significantly during the periods of 1990–2000 and 2010–2018 due to a decrease in tidal flats and linear waters, but increased significantly in 2000–2010 due to an increase in patchy waters. Human construction activities, socioeconomic development and topography were the key factors driving the dynamics of water pattern and connectivity. The use of graph metrics (node degree, betweenness centrality, and delta probability of connectivity) in combination with landscape metrics (Euclidean nearest-neighbor distance) can help establish the parameters of threshold distance between connected habitats, identify hubs and stepping stones, and determine the relatively important water patches that require priority protection or development

The Pore-Forming Protein Cry5B Elicits the Pathogenicity of Bacillus sp. against Caenorhabditis elegans

The soil bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis is a pathogen of insects and nematodes and is very closely related to, if not the same species as, Bacillus cereus and Bacillus anthracis. The defining characteristic of B. thuringiensis that sets it apart from B. cereus and B. anthracis is the production of crystal (Cry) proteins, which are pore-forming toxins or pore-forming proteins (PFPs). Although it is known that PFPs are important virulence factors since their elimination results in reduced virulence of many pathogenic bacteria, the functions by which PFPs promote virulence are incompletely understood. Here we study the effect of Cry proteins in B. thuringiensis pathogenesis of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. We find that whereas B. thuringiensis on its own is not able to infect C. elegans, the addition of the PFP Cry protein, Cry5B, results in a robust lethal infection that consumes the nematode host in 1–2 days, leading to a “Bob” or bag-of-bacteria phenotype. Unlike other infections of C. elegans characterized to date, the infection by B. thuringiensis shows dose-dependency based on bacterial inoculum size and based on PFP concentration. Although the infection process takes 1–2 days, the PFP-instigated infection process is irreversibly established within 15 minutes of initial exposure. Remarkably, treatment of C. elegans with Cry5B PFP is able to instigate many other Bacillus species, including B. anthracis and even “non-pathogenic” Bacillus subtilis, to become lethal and infectious agents to C. elegans. Co-culturing of Cry5B-expressing B. thuringiensis with B. anthracis can result in lethal infection of C. elegans by B. anthracis. Our data demonstrate that one potential property of PFPs is to sensitize the host to bacterial infection and further that C. elegans and probably other roundworms can be common hosts for B. cereus-group bacteria, findings with important ecological and research implications

What are the current and projected future cost and health-related quality of life implications of scaling up cognitive stimulation therapy?

Objectives: Cognitive stimulation therapy (CST) is one of the few non-pharmacological interventions for people living with dementia shown to be effective and cost-effective. What are the current and future cost and health-related quality of life implications of scaling-up CST to eligible new cases of dementia in England? Methods/design: Data from trials were combined with microsimulation and macrosimulation modelling to project future prevalence, needs and costs. Health and social costs, unpaid care costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were compared with and without scaling-up of CST and follow-on maintenance CST (MCST). Results: Scaling-up group CST requires year-on-year increases in expenditure (mainly on staff), but these would be partially offset by reductions in health and care costs. Unpaid care costs would increase. Scaling-up MCST would also require additional expenditure, but without generating savings elsewhere. There would be improvements in general cognitive functioning and health-related quality of life, summarised in terms of QALY gains. Cost per QALY for CST alone would increase from £12,596 in 2015 to £19,573 by 2040, which is below the threshold for cost-effectiveness used by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). Cost per QALY for CST and MCST combined would grow from £19,883 in 2015 to £30,906 by 2040, making it less likely to be recommended by NICE on cost-effectiveness grounds. Conclusions: Scaling-up CST England for people with incident dementia can improve lives in an affordable, cost-effective manner. Adding MCST also improves health-related quality of life, but the economic evidence is less compelling

The Field Epidemiology Training Program’s Contribution to Essential Public Health Functions in Seven National Public Health Institutes

Objective: This study explores how Field Epidemiology Training Programs (FETP) whose National Public Health Institutes (NPHI) are supported by U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have contributed to strengthening essential public health functions.Methods: We conducted 96 semi-structured interviews with public health experts including NPHI staff, non-NPHI government staff, and staff from non-governmental and international organizations in Cambodia, Colombia, Liberia, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Zambia. We managed data using MAXQDA and employed direct content analysis to derive themes.Results: Three overarching themes emerged in relation to FETPs’ role within the NPHIs’ public health functions. These themes included contribution to improving country surveillance systems, role in providing leadership in outbreak responses, and strengthening countries’ and the NPHIs’ surveillance workforce capacity. Participants also shared challenges around FETPs’ implementation and suggestions for improvement.Conclusion: The results demonstrate the value of FETPs in strengthening public health systems through building workforce capacity and improving surveillance systems. By identifying the successes of FETPs in contributing to essential public health functions, our findings might inform current and future FETP implementation and its integration into NPHIs

New Neutrino Mass Bounds from Sloan Digital Sky Survey III Data Release 8 Photometric Luminous Galaxies

We present neutrino mass bounds using 900,000 luminous galaxies with photometric redshifts measured from Sloan Digital Sky Survey III Data Release Eight (SDSS DR8). The galaxies have photometric redshifts between $z = 0.45$ and $z = 0.65$, and cover 10,000 square degrees and thus probe a volume of 3$h^{-3}$Gpc$^3$, enabling tight constraints to be derived on the amount of dark matter in the form of massive neutrinos. A new bound on the sum of neutrino masses $\sum m_\nu < 0.26$ eV, at 95% confidence level (CL), is obtained after combining our sample of galaxies, which we call "CMASS", with WMAP 7 year Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data and the most recent measurement of the Hubble parameter from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). This constraint is obtained with a conservative multipole range choice of $30 < \ell < 200$ in order to minimize non-linearities, and a free bias parameter in each of the four redshift bins. We study the impact of assuming this linear galaxy bias model using mock catalogs, and find that this model causes a small ($\sim 1-1.5 \sigma$) bias in $\Omega_{\rm DM} h^2$. For this reason, we also quote neutrino bounds based on a conservative galaxy bias model containing additional, shot noise-like free parameters. In this conservative case, the bounds are significantly weakened, e.g. $\sum m_\nu < 0.36$ eV (95% confidence level) for WMAP+HST+CMASS ($\ell_{\rm max}=200$). We also study the dependence of the neutrino bound on multipole range ($\ell_{\rm max}=150$ vs $\ell_{\rm max}=200$) and on which combination of data sets is included as a prior. The addition of supernova and/or Baryon Acoustic Oscillation data does not significantly improve the neutrino mass bound once the HST prior is included. [abridged]Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, 1 tabl

Identification of unique expression signatures and therapeutic targets in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), the predominant histological subtype of esophageal cancer, is characterized by high mortality. Previous work identified important mRNA expression differences between normal and tumor cells; however, to date there are limited <it>ex vivo </it>studies examining expression changes occurring during normal esophageal squamous cell differentiation versus those associated with tumorigenesis. In this study, we used a unique tissue microdissection strategy and microarrays to measure gene expression profiles associated with cell differentiation versus tumorigenesis in twelve cases of patient-matched normal basal squamous epithelial cells (NB), normal differentiated squamous epithelium (ND), and squamous cell cancer. Class comparison and pathway analysis were used to compare NB versus tumor in a search for unique therapeutic targets.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>As a first step towards this goal, gene expression profiles and pathways were evaluated. Overall, ND expression patterns were markedly different from NB and tumor; whereas, tumor and NB were more closely related. Tumor showed a general decrease in differentially expressed genes relative to NB as opposed to ND that exhibited the opposite trend. FSH and IgG networks were most highly dysregulated in normal differentiation and tumorigenesis, respectively. DNA repair pathways were generally elevated in NB and tumor relative to ND indicating involvement in both normal and pathological growth. PDGF signaling pathway and 12 individual genes unique to the tumor/NB comparison were identified as therapeutic targets, and 10 associated ESCC gene-drug pairs were identified. We further examined the protein expression level and the distribution patterns of four genes: ODC1, POSTN, ASPA and IGF2BP3. Ultimately, three genes (ODC1, POSTN, ASPA) were verified to be dysregulated in the same pattern at both the mRNA and protein levels.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These data reveal insight into genes and molecular pathways mediating ESCC development and provide information potentially useful in designing novel therapeutic interventions for this tumor type.</p