Multiscale assimilation of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS snow water equivalent and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer snow cover fraction observations in northern Colorado

Eight years (2002–2010) of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–EOS (AMSR-E) snow water equivalent (SWE) retrievals and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover fraction (SCF) observations are assimilated separately or jointly into the Noah land surface model over a domain in Northern Colorado. A multiscale ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used, supplemented with a rule-based update. The satellite data are either left unscaled or are scaled for anomaly assimilation. The results are validated against in situ observations at 14 high-elevation Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites with typically deep snow and at 4 lower-elevation Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) sites. Assimilation of coarse-scale AMSR-E SWE and fine-scale MODIS SCF observations both result in realistic spatial SWE patterns. At COOP sites with shallow snowpacks, AMSR-E SWE and MODIS SCF data assimilation are beneficial separately, and joint SWE and SCF assimilation yields significantly improved root-mean-square error and correlation values for scaled and unscaled data assimilation. In areas of deep snow where the SNOTEL sites are located, however, AMSR-E retrievals are typically biased low and assimilation without prior scaling leads to degraded SWE estimates. Anomaly SWE assimilation could not improve the interannual SWE variations in the assimilation results because the AMSR-E retrievals lack realistic interannual variability in deep snowpacks. SCF assimilation has only a marginal impact at the SNOTEL locations because these sites experience extended periods of near-complete snow cover. Across all sites, SCF assimilation improves the timing of the onset of the snow season but without a net improvement of SWE amounts

Parameter Sensitivity of the Noah-MP Land Surface Model with Dynamic Vegetation

The Noah land surface model with multiple parameterization options (Noah-MP) includes a routine for dynamic simulation of vegetation carbon assimilation and soil carbon decomposition processes. To use remote sensing observations of vegetation to constrain simulations from this model, it is necessary first to understand the sensitivity of the model to its parameters. This is required for efficient parameter estimation, which is both a valuable way to use observations and also a first or concurrent step in many state-updating data assimilation procedures. We use variance decomposition to assess the sensitivity of estimates of sensible heat, latent heat, soil moisture, and net ecosystem exchange made by certain standard Noah-MP configurations that include dynamic simulation of vegetation and carbon to forty-three primary user-specified parameters. This is done using thirty-two years' worth of data from ten international FluxNet sites. Findings indicate that there are five soil parameters and six (or more) vegetation parameters (depending on the model configuration) that act as primary controls on these states and fluxes

Uncertainties in Evapotranspiration Estimates over West Africa

An evapotranspiration (ET) ensemble composed of 36 land surface model (LSM) experiments and four diagnostic datasets (GLEAM, ALEXI, MOD16, and FLUXNET) is used to investigate uncertainties in ET estimate over five climate regions in West Africa. Diagnostic ET datasets show lower uncertainty estimates and smaller seasonal variations than the LSM-based ET values, particularly in the humid climate regions. Overall, the impact of the choice of LSMs and meteorological forcing datasets on the modeled ET rates increases from north to south. The LSM formulations and parameters have the largest impact on ET in humid regions, contributing to 90% of the ET uncertainty estimates. Precipitation contributes to the ET uncertainty primarily in arid regions. The LSM-based ET estimates are sensitive to the uncertainty of net radiation in arid region and precipitation in humid region. This study serves as support for better determining water availability for agriculture and livelihoods in Africa with earth observations and land surface models

Evaluating ESA CCI Soil Moisture in East Africa

To assess growing season conditions where ground based observations are limited or unavailable, food security and agricultural drought monitoring analysts rely on publicly available remotely sensed rainfall and vegetation greenness. There are also remotely sensed soil moisture observations from missions like the European Space Agency (ESA) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and NASAs Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), however these time series are still too short to conduct studies that demonstrate the utility of these data for operational applications, or to provide historical context for extreme wet or dry events. To promote the use of remotely sensed soil moisture in agricultural drought and food security monitoring, we use East Africa as a case study to evaluate the quality of a 30+ year time series of merged active-passive microwave soil moisture from the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI-SM). Compared to the Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI) and modeled soil moisture products, we found substantial spatial and temporal gaps in the early part of the CCI-SM record, with adequate data coverage beginning in 1992. From this point forward, growing season CCI-SM anomalies were well correlated (R greater than 0.5) with modeled, seasonal soil moisture, and in some regions, NDVI. We use correlation analysis and qualitative comparisons at seasonal time scales to show that remotely sensed soil moisture can add information to a convergence of evidence framework that traditionally relies on rainfall and NDVI in moderately vegetated regions

Upper Blue Nile basin water budget from a multi-model perspective

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based meteorological datasets from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications datasets (i.e., MERRA-Land and MERRA-2) and three observation-based precipitation datasets, generating a total of 16 experiments. Modeled evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow, and terrestrial water storage estimates were evaluated against the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) ET, insitu streamflow observations, and NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products, respectively. Results show that CLSMF2.5 provided better representation of the water budget variables than Noah3.3 in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient when considering all meteorological forcing datasets and precipitation datasets. The model experiments forced with observation-based products, the Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), outperform those run with MERRA-Land and MERRA-2 precipitation. The results presented in this paper would suggest that the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System incorporate CLSMF2.5 and HyMAP routing scheme to better represent the water balance in this region

NASA Land Information System (LIS) Water Availability to Support Reclamation ET Estimation

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation identified the remote sensing of evapotranspiration (ET) as an important water flux for study and designated a test site in the Lower Colorado River basin. A consortium of groups will work together with the goal to develop more accurate and cost effective techniques using the enhanced spatial and temporal coverage afforded by remote sensing. ET is a critical water loss flux where improved estimation should lead to better management of Reclamation responsibilities. There are several areas where NASA satellite and modeling data may be useful to meet Reclamation's objectives for improved ET estimation. In this paper we outline one possible contribution to use NASA's data integration capability of the Land Information System (LIS) to provide a merger of observational (in situ and satellite) with physical process models to provide estimates of ET and other water availability outputs (e.g., runoff, soil moisture) retrospectively, in near real-time, and also providing short-term predictions

Dynamical Forecasts of Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes with the NASA S2S Retrospective Forecast System

Recent advances in the ability to predict climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales allow us to explore the possibility of forecasting carbon flux anomalies. Although carbon flux forecasting is a relatively new concept, it is potentially beneficial as it can help us better understand global and regional land-atmosphere carbon feedbacks associated with climate variations and can provide guidance for future field mission design. Here we evaluate the skill of forecasted terrestrial carbon anomalies generated from meteorological anomalies produced with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) S2S forecast system. We focus here on three representative time periods (the most recent 2015-2016 El Nino, 2011 La Nina, and 2014 as a neutral year), with each corresponding 9-month forecast comprising four ensemble members initialized in the preceding December. The meteorological variables produced by the GMAO forecast system were bias-corrected using a climatology derived from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) before being used to drive a suite of offline simulations with the NASA Catchment-CN terrestrial biosphere model, a model that computes water-energy-carbon dynamics. Forecasts are evaluated by comparing against satellite-driven estimates of gross primary production (GPP) and inverse model estimates of net carbon flux that incorporate satellite carbon dioxide measurements. We find that the restrospectively predicted carbon fluxes in the tropics reasonably reproduce the signs and magnitudes of the observed anomalies between the 2015-2016 El Nino and the 2011 La Nina for both net flux and GPP. For instance, for the El Nino period, the magnitude of the forecasted negative GPP anomaly in the South American tropics (which undergoes anomalously warm and dry conditions) agrees with the observed GPP anomaly at leads of up to three or four months. Overall, this study demonstrates potential skill in the forecast of biospheric carbon fluxes a few months in advance, a capability that could contribute to attribution studies focusing on carbon flux variations and support innovative observation strategies in the future

Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture assimilation produced marginal benefits. We carried out 1-3 month lead-time forecast experiments using GEOS-5 forecasts as input to LIS/CLSM. Based on these forecast experiments, we find that the expected skill in GEOS-5 forecasts from 1-3 months is present in the soil moisture percentiles used to indicate drought. In the case of the HOA drought, the failure of the long rains in April appears in the February 1, March 1 and April 1 initialized forecasts, suggesting that for this case, drought forecasting would have provided some advance warning about the drought conditions observed in 2011. Three key recommendations for follow-up work include: (1) carry out a comprehensive analysis of droughts observed over the entire period of record for GEOS-5 forecasts; (2) continue to analyze the GEOS-5 forecasts in HOA stratifying by anomalies in long and short rains; and (3) continue to include GRACE TWS, Soil Moisture/Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the upcoming NASA Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) soil moisture products in a routine activity building on this prototype to further quantify the benefits for drought assessment and prediction

Data Assimilation Enhancements to Air Force Weathers Land Information System

The United States Air Force (USAF) has a proud and storied tradition of enabling significant advancements in the area of characterizing and modeling land state information. 557th Weather Wing (557 WW; DoDs Executive Agent for Land Information) provides routine geospatial intelligence information to warfighters, planners, and decision makers at all echelons and services of the U.S. military, government and intelligence community. 557 WW and its predecessors have been home to the DoDs only operational regional and global land data analysis systems since January 1958. As a trusted partner since 2005, Air Force Weather (AFW) has relied on the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA/GSFC to lead the interagency scientific collaboration known as the Land Information System (LIS). LIS is an advanced software framework for high performance land surface modeling and data assimilation of geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) information

Evaluation of the MODIS snow cover fraction product

Eleven years of daily 500m gridded Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (MOD10A1) snow cover fraction (SCF) data are evaluated in terms of snow presence detection in Colorado and Washington states. The SCF detection validation study is performed using in-situ measurements and expressed in terms of snow and land detection and misclassification frequencies. A major aspect addressed in this study involves the shifting of pixel values in time due to sensor viewing angles and gridding artifacts of MODIS sensor products. To account for this error, 500m gridded pixels are grouped and aggregated to different-sized areas to incorporate neighboring pixel information. With pixel aggregation, both the probability of detection (POD) and the false alarm ratios increase for almost all cases. Of the false negative (FN) and false positive values (referred to as the total error when combined), FN estimates dominate most of the total error and are greatly reduced with aggregation. The greatest POD increases and total error reductions occur with going from a single 500m pixel to 3×3-pixel averaged areas. Since the MODIS SCF algorithm was developed under ideal conditions, SCF detection is also evaluated for varying conditions of vegetation, elevation, cloud cover and air temperature. Finally, using a direct insertion data assimilation approach, pixel averaged MODIS SCF observations are shown to improve modeled snowpack conditions over the single pixel observations due to the smoothing of more error-prone observations and more accurately snow-classified pixels. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.status: publishe