Controls on the width of tropical precipitation and its contraction under global warming

AD and ARA were funded by the National Science Foundation Paleo Perspective on Climate Change (P2C2) Grant number AGS-1702827.Climate models robustly and unanimously simulate narrowing of the intense tropical precipitation under greenhouse gas forcing. We argue that the meridional width of tropical precipitation is controlled by the seasonal meridional range of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The contraction of tropical precipitation under greenhouse forcing results from a reduced seasonal range of ITCZ migration. An energetic theory -- similar to the energetic theory for ITCZ shifts based on the hemispheric contrast of energy input to the atmosphere-- is developed. The meridional width of tropical precipitation is proportional to the seasonal range of the inter-hemispheric contrast in atmospheric heating divided by the efficiency of atmospheric cross-equatorial heat transport. Climate models are biased toward overly expansive tropical precipitation resulting from an exaggerated seasonal atmospheric heating. The robust contraction of tropical precipitation under global warming results from increased efficiency of inter-hemispheric energy transport consistent with enhanced gross moist stability of the tropical atmosphere.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Meridional shifts of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone since the Last Glacial Maximum

The intertropical convergence zone is a near-equatorial band of intense rainfall and convection. Over the modern Atlantic Ocean, its annual average position is approximately 5° N, and it is associated with low sea surface salinity and high surface temperatures. This average position has varied since the Last Glacial Maximum, in response to changing climate boundary conditions. The nature of this variation is less clear, with suggestions that the intertropical convergence zone migrated north–south away from the colder hemisphere or that it contracted and expanded symmetrically around its present position2. Here we use paired Mg/Ca and δ18O measurements of planktonic foraminifera for a transect of ocean sediment cores to reconstruct past changes in tropical surface ocean temperature and salinity in the Atlantic Ocean over the past 25,000 years. We show that the low-salinity, high-temperature surface waters associated with the intertropical convergence zone migrated southward of their present position during the Last Glacial Maximum, when the Northern Hemisphere cooled, and northward during the warmer early Holocene, by about ±7° of latitude. Our evidence suggests that the intertropical convergence zone moved latitudinally over the ocean, rather than expanding or contracting. We conclude that the marine intertropical convergence zone has migrated significantly away from its present position owing to external climate forcing during the past 25,000 years

The Influence of Salinity on Mg/Ca in Planktic Foraminifers – Evidence from Cultures, Core-top Sediments and Complementary δ18O

The Mg/Ca ratio in foraminiferal calcite is one of the principal proxies used for paleoceanographic temperature reconstructions, but recent core-top sediment observations suggest that salinity may exert a significant secondary control on planktic foraminifers. This study compiles new and published laboratory culture experiment data from the planktic foraminifers Orbulina universa, Globigerinoides sacculifer and Globigerinoides ruber, in which salinity was varied but temperature, pH and light were held constant. Combining new data with results from previous culture studies yields a Mg/Ca-sensitivity to salinity of 4.4 ± 2.3%, 4.7 ± 1.2%, and 3.3 ± 1.7% per salinity unit (95% confidence), respectively, for the three foraminifer species studied here. Comparison of these sensitivities with core-top data suggests that the much larger sensitivity (27 ± 4% per salinity unit) derived from Atlantic core-top sediments in previous studies is not a direct effect of salinity. Rather, we suggest that the dissolution correction often applied to Mg/Ca data can lead to significant overestimation of temperatures. We are able to reconcile culture calibrations with core-top observations by combining evidence for seasonal occurrence and latitude-specific habitat depth preferences with corresponding variations in physico-chemical environmental parameters. Although both Mg/Ca and δ18O yield temperature estimates that fall within the bounds of hydrographic observations, discrepancies between the two proxies highlight unresolved challenges with the use of paired Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses to reconstruct paleo-salinity patterns across ocean basins. The first step towards resolving these challenges requires a better spatially and seasonally resolved δ18Osw archive than is currently available. Nonetheless, site-specific reconstructions of salinity change through time may be valid

Southward displacement of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre circulation system during North Atlantic cold spells

Key Points: - Rapid subsurface oceanographic change in the tropical W Atlantic reflect shifting Subtropical Gyre - Subsurface warming responds to deglacial AMOC perturbations (Heinrich Stadials 2, 1, and the Younger Dryas) - Southward propagation of Salinity Maximum Water during Northern Hemisphere cold spells shift the mixing zone of tropical and subtropical waters During times of deglacial Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) perturbations, the tropical Atlantic experienced considerable warming at subsurface levels. Coupled ocean‐atmosphere simulations corroborate the tight teleconnection between the tropical Atlantic and climate change at high northern latitudes, but still underestimate the relevance of the subsurface N Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (STG) for heat and salt storage and its sensitivity to rapid climatic change. We here reconstruct vertical and lateral temperature and salinity gradients in the tropical W Atlantic and the Caribbean over the last 30 kyrs, based on planktic deep and shallow dwelling foraminiferal Mg/Ca and δ18O‐records. The rapid and large amplitude subsurface changes illustrate a dynamic STG associated with abrupt shifts of North Atlantic hydrographic and atmospheric regimes. During full glacial conditions, the STG has been shifted southward while intensified Ekman‐downwelling associated to strengthened trade winds fostered the formation of warm and saline Salinity Maximum Water (SMW). The southward propagation of SMW was facilitated by the glacially eastward deflected North Brazil Current. During periods of significant AMOC perturbations (Heinrich Stadials 1, and the Younger Dryas), extreme subsurface warming by ~6°C led to diminished lateral subsurface temperature gradients. Coevally, a deep thermocline suggests that SMW fully occupied the subsurface tropical W Atlantic and that the STG reached its southernmost position. During the Holocene, modern‐like conditions gradually developed with the northward retreat of SMW and the development of a strong thermocline ridge between the Subtropical Gyre and the tropical W Atlantic

The influence of salinity on Mg/Ca in planktic foraminifers – Evidence from cultures, core-top sediments and complementary δ18O

The Mg/Ca ratio in foraminiferal calcite is one of the principal proxies used for paleoceanographic temperature reconstructions, but recent core-top sediment observations suggest that salinity may exert a significant secondary control on planktic foraminifers. This study compiles new and published laboratory culture experiment data from the planktic foraminifers Orbulina universa, Globigerinoides sacculifer and Globigerinoides ruber, in which salinity was varied but temperature, pH and light were held constant. Combining new data with results from previous culture studies yields a Mg/Ca-sensitivity to salinity of 4.4 ± 2.3%, 4.7 ± 1.2%, and 3.3 ± 1.7% per salinity unit (95% confidence), respectively, for the three foraminifer species studied here. Comparison of these sensitivities with core-top data suggests that the much larger sensitivity (27 ± 4% per salinity unit) derived from Atlantic core-top sediments in previous studies is not a direct effect of salinity. Rather, we suggest that the dissolution correction often applied to Mg/Ca data can lead to significant overestimation of temperatures. We are able to reconcile culture calibrations with core-top observations by combining evidence for seasonal occurrence and latitude-specific habitat depth preferences with corresponding variations in physico-chemical environmental parameters. Although both Mg/Ca and δ18O yield temperature estimates that fall within the bounds of hydrographic observations, discrepancies between the two proxies highlight unresolved challenges with the use of paired Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses to reconstruct paleo-salinity patterns across ocean basins. The first step towards resolving these challenges requires a better spatially and seasonally resolved δ18Osw archive than is currently available. Nonetheless, site-specific reconstructions of salinity change through time may be valid