MODELING INDONESIAN LQ45 STOCK MARKET INDEX VOLATILITY (APPLICATION OF GARCH AND BAYESIAN GARCH)

A comparative study has been conducted to examine the performance of the GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model and Bayesian GARCH applied to the daily LQ45 stock market index of the Indonesian Stock Exchange, where the innovations of both models are assumed to follow Student-t. The forecasting performance of both models are evaluated with standard statistical measurement. The empirical result shows that there a no different performance between these models. This is an indication that bayesian estimation only an alternative method in predicting LQ45 volatility, but not to increase the predictio

Improving Quality of Islamic Education Through Community Based Education: Principal Engagement

The emergence of a community-based education paradigm is triggered by a large flow of modernization and democratization. Education should be decentralized. Its implementation in schools should be collaborative, and the principal has a big hand in this. Therefore, this study aims to examine the involvement or participation of the principal in improving the quality of Islamic Religious Education (PAI) community-based in junior high school. The data are collected through in-depth interviews, observations, literature studies and documentation instruments. This study  shows that the principal's concern on religious affairs and the improvement of the quality of PAI learning is relatively high. This can be seen from his programs conducting recitation   on Islamic and national holidays, Dhuha studies, tahfidz one day one verse, book of yaumi and verse book, tajwid learning   or tahsin for teachers, qurban animal repayment   and highly motivating teachers to have skills, develop existing curriculum, and improve the competence of teaching based on social piety

Integrating steepest ascent for the taguchi experiment: A simulation study

Many previous researches conveyed the superiority of Steepest Ascent (SA) method to find the optimal area in Response Surface Methodology (RSM) by shifting the experiment factor level. By using this method, Design of Experiment (DoE) is enabled to shift the factor level gradually in the right track, so that the global optimum can be reached. However, the response variable that is commonly optimized by using RSM cannot fulfill the classical statistics assumption of surface regression model. Taguchi’s orthogonal array, as alternative of RSM, gives loose statistics assumptions in performing the analysis. However, Taguchi’s orthogonal array has not yet been supported to shift the factor level to an optimum direction. Adopting the procedures of RSM in finding the optimal level combination using SA, integrating SA method in the Taguchi experiment is proposed in this paper. This procedure is applied into a simulated response surface. Then, the performance of this procedure is evaluated based on its direction to reach the optimum solution. The simulation data representing the real case is generated for two factors. Then, the proposed procedure is applied. The result of this simulation study shows that the integrated SA method in the Taguchi experiment successfully found the factor level combination that yields optimum response even though it is not as close as possible as the RSM results

Comparing Statistical Feature and Artificial Neural Networks for Control Chart Pattern Recognition: A Case Study

Control chart has been widely used for monitoring production process, especially in evaluating the quality performance of a product. An uncontrolled process is usually known by recognizing its chart pattern, and then performing some actions to overcome the problems. In high speed production process, real-time data is recorded and plotted almost automatically, and the control chart pattern needs to be recognized immediately for detecting any unusual process behavior. Neural networks for automatic control chart recognition have been studied in detecting its pattern. In the field of computer science, the performance of its automatic and fast recognition ability can be a substitution for a conventional method by human. Some researchers even have developed newer algorithm to increase the recognition process of this neural networks control chart. However, artificial approaches have some difficulties in implementation, especially due to its sophisticated programming algorithm. Another competing method, based on statistical feature also has been considered in recognition process. Control chart is related to applied statistical method, so it is not unreasonable if statistical properties are developed for its pattern recognition. Correlation coefficient, one of classic statistical features, can be applied in control chart recognition. It is a simpler approach than the artificial one. In this paper, the comparison between these two methods starts by evaluating the behavior of control chart time series point, and measured for its closeness to some training data that are generated by simulation and followed some unusual control chart pattern. For both methods, the performance is evaluated by comparing their ability in detecting the pattern of generated control chart points. As a sophisticated method, neural networks give better recognition ability. The statistical features method simply calculate the correlation coefficient, even with small differences in recognizing the generated pattern compared to neural networks, but provides easy interpretation to justify the unusual control chart pattern. Both methods are then applied in a case study and performances are then measured

Regime Switching GARCH : An Application to Dowjones Index Return

Since firstly proposed by Engle (1982) and Bollerslev (1986), ARCH-GARCH models have been used to describe volatility behaviors of time series, especially in stock market analysis. One of the weaknesses of ARCH-GARCH is its inability to model behavior transition between high volatilities and low volatilities. In this research, markov switching GARCH is investigated and applied to capture the presence of different volatility regimes, i.e. low volatilities regime and high volatility regime in Dowjones index return. However, there is no information to decide which observations belong to each of the regimes, and to account this difficulty, EM algorithm is applied for parameter estimation. The result shows that Dowjones index return includes two volatility regimes. The transition matrix of the model yields that low volatility regime is often happened than the high one

On the Markov Switching GARCH: a Brief Introductory

This paper describes briefly about GARCH with regime switching (SW-GARCH) following Markov Chain property. This approach accounts for jumps between volatility regimes which useful to detect some change of policies during the time horizon are running. To show the work of the employing this approach, an implementation through Unilever stock data has been tried. The results show that the data follow the change between two regimes with probability accordingly

PENGARUH JUMLAH WISATAWAN TERHADAP PDRB KABUPATEN ACEH SINGKIL MELALUI PAJAK DAERAH DAN RETRIBUSI DAERAH

ABSTRAKJudul: Pengaruh Jumlah Wisatawan Terhadap PDRB Kabupaten Aceh Singkil Melalui Pajak Daerah dan Retribusi Daerah NIM: 13001101010102 Fakultas: Ekonomi dan Bisnis Dosen Pembimbing: Prof. Dr. Raja Masbar., M.Sc Penelitian ini meneliti tentang pengaruh jumlah wisatawan yang berkunjung terhadap Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) Kabupaten Aceh Singkil dengan menggunakan pajak daerah dan retribusi daerah sebagai variabel mediasi, penelitian ini menggunakan model rekursife dan analisis regresi menggunakan ordinary least square (OLS). Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa jumlah wisatawan mancanegara berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PDRB melalui kontribusinya terhadap pajak daerah dan retribusi daerah, sementara untuk jumlah wisatawan nusantara berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PDRB melalui kontribusinya terhadap retribusi daerah di Kabupaten Aceh Singkil.Kata kunci : Pariwisata, Wisatawan, PDRBABSTRACTTitle: The Effect of Number of Tourists to GRDP of Aceh Singkil District Through Regional Tax and Regional LeviesStudent Id : 13001101010102Faculty : Economics and Business Adviser : Prof. Dr. Raja Masbar., M.Sc This study examines the effect of the number of tourists visiting on the gross regional domestic product (GRDP) of Aceh Singkil District by using Regional Taxes and Levies as a mediation variable. This research uses recursive model and regression analysis using ordinary least square (OLS). The number of foreign visits positive and significant to the gross regional domestic product through its contribution to regional tax and regional levies, while for the number of domestic tourists have a positive and significant impact to the GRDP through its contribution to regional levies in Aceh Singkil district.Keywords: Tourism, Tourist, GRD

EVALUASI FRAKSI SERAT KASAR KULIT KOPI YANG DIFERMENTASI MENGGUNAKAN SUMBER INOKULAN KOMERSIL BERBEDA

Abstrak. Suatu penelitian tentang fraksi serat kulit kopi untuk pakan ternak ruminansia. Penelitian ini dilaksanakan di Laboratorium Ilmu Nutrisi dan Teknologi Pakan Pogram Studi Peternakan, Fakultas Pertanian, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Darussalam, Banda Aceh untuk proses fermentasi pakan dan pengujian kadar serat kasar, kemudian dilanjutkan dengan pengiriman sampel penelitian ke Balai Pengujian Mutu dan Sertifikasi Pakan (BPMSP) Bekasi untuk pengujian kadar NDF dan ADF, penelitian ini berlangsung dari bulan Juni 2017 sampai bulan Juli 2017. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengevaluasi kadar serat kasar, kadar NDF, dan kadar ADF kulit kopi yang difermentasi menggunakan sumber inokulan komersil berbeda. Rancangan yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah rancangan acak lengkap (RAL) dengan 4 perlakuan dan 4 ulangan, dimana P0 (kontrol), P1 (Kulit kopi+SBP), P2 (kulit kopi+EM4), P3 (kulit kopi+probion). Masing-masing perlakuan kecuali P0 ditambah inokulan sebanyak 1%, molases 3%, urea 0,1%, dan tepung sagu 3%. Parameter yang diukur pada penelitian ini adalah kandungan serat kasar, kandungan NDF, dan Kandungan ADF. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penggunaan inokulan yang berbeda pada fermentasi kulit kopi belum mampu menurunkan kadar NDF dan ADF secara nyata (P>0,05), namun berpengaruh nyata (

Students' Capability in Answering Multiple Choice Question of Reading Passage At Ninth Grade of SMP Muhammadiyah 4 Surakarta in 2011/2012 Academic Year

The purposes of this study are describing (1) the students’ capability in answering multiple choice question of reading passage at the ninth grade of SMP Muhammadiyah 4 Surakarta in 2011/2012, (2) the problem faced by the students, and (3) the causes of the problem faced by the students. The study was done in SMP Muhammadiyah 4 Surakarta. As the sample, the writer takes 32 students at class IX B. The writer conducts treatment to the students in the form of the test. The type of test is multiple choices with four options and consists of 50 items. After collecting the data and analyzing them by using the formula, the writer describes the result of the study. The writer finds that the capability of the students in answering multiple choice question of reading passage can be divided into three levels mastery, they are 7 students who get poor level (21, 88 %), 15 students who get fair level (46, 87% ), and 10 students who get good level (31, 25 %). The problems faced by the students in answering multiple choice question of reading passage are (1) in answering directly and indirectly answered details questions and (2) vocabulary questions. The causes of the problems faced by the students in answering multiple choice question of reading passage are (1) the students are lack in the mastery vocabulary, sentence’s structure, and the ideas of a text or the context of reading passage. (2) The students do not have habit to develop their reading skill. (3) The students do not know the effectiveness strategies to comprehend the reading passage and to answer multiple choice question of reading passage. (4) In the teaching reading the teacher is still less giving variation strategies in answering multiple choice questions and comprehending reading passage for the students. In conclusion the students’ capability in answering multiple choice question of reading passage is fair