Novel risk factors for primary prevention of oesophageal carcinoma: A case-control study from Sri Lanka

Background Oesophageal carcinoma (OC) is one of the leading cancers in Sri Lanka. Its increasing incidence despite the implementation of various preventive activities addressing the conventional risk factors indicates the possibility of the existence of novel, country-specific risk factors. Thus, the identification of novel risk factors of OC specific to Sri Lanka is crucial for implementation of primary prevention activities. Methods A case-control study was conducted among 49 incident cases of OC recruited from the National Cancer Institute, Maharagama using a non-probability sampling method, and unmatched hospital controls (n = 196) excluded of having OC recruited from the endoscopy unit of the National Hospital of Sri Lanka. Data were collected using an interviewer administered questionnaire. Risk factors for OC were assessed by odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). The risk factors were adjusted for possible confounding by logistic regression analysis. Results Of the study population, OC was common among males (69%) and the majority presented with squamous cell carcinoma (65%) at late stages (Stage IV: 45%; Stage III: 37%). Following adjusting for confounders, the risk factor profile for OC included; age > 65 years (OR = 4.0; 95% CI: 1.2–14.2); family history of cancer (OR = 5.04; 95% CI: 1.3–19.0); sub-optimal consumption of dietary fibre (OR = 3.58; 95% CI: 1.1–12.3); sub-optimal consumption of anti-oxidants (OR = 7.0; 95% CI: 2.2–22.5); over-consumption of deep fried food (OR = 6.68; 95% CI:2.0–22.6); ‘high risk’ alcohol drinking (OR = 11.7; 95% CI: 2.8–49.4); betel quid chewing (OR = 6.1; 95% CI: 2.0, 20.0); ‘low’ lifetime total sports and exercise activities (MET hours/week/year) (OR = 5.83; 95% CI: 1.5–23.0); agrochemicals exposure (OR = 6.57; 95% CI: 1.4–30.3); pipe-borne drinking water (OR = 5.62; 95% CI:1.7–18.9) and radiation exposure (OR = 4.64; 95% CI: 1.4–15.5). Significant effect modifications were seen between betel quid chewing and male sex (p = 0.01) and between ever exposure to radiation and age over 65 years (p = 0.04). Conclusions Risk profile for OC includes novel yet modifiable risk factors in relation to diet, occupation, environment and health. Primary prevention should target these to combat OC in Sri Lanka

Should nutrient profile models be ‘category specific' or ‘across-the-board'? A comparison of the two systems using diets of British adults

Background/Objectives: Nutrient profile models have the potential to help promote healthier diets. Some models treat all foods equally (across-the-board), some consider different categories of food separately (category specific). This paper assesses whether across-the-board or category-specific nutrient profile models are more appropriate tools for improving diets. Subjects/Methods: Adult respondents to a British dietary survey were split into four groups using a diet quality index. Fifteen food categories were identified. A nutrient profile model provided a measure of the healthiness of all foods consumed. The four diet quality groups were compared for differences in (a) the calories consumed from each food category and (b) the healthiness of foods consumed in each category. Evidence of a healthier diet quality groups consuming more of healthy food categories than unhealthy diet quality groups supported the adoption of across-the-board nutrient profile models. Evidence of healthier diet quality groups consuming healthier versions of foods within food categories supported adoption of category-specific nutrient profile models. Results: A significantly greater percentage of the healthiest diet quality group's diet consisted of fruit and vegetables (21 vs 16%), fish (3 vs 2%) and breakfast cereals (7 vs 2%), and significantly less meat and meat products (7 vs 14%) than the least healthy diet quality group. The foods from the meat, dairy and cereals categories consumed by the healthy diet quality groups were healthier versions than those consumed by the unhealthy diet quality groups. Conclusions: All other things being equal, nutrient profile models designed to promote an achievable healthy diet should be category specific but with a limited number of categories. However models which use large number of categories are unhelpful for promoting a healthy diet

Where to from here for preventing childhood obesity : an international perspective

Over a quarter of a century ago, the childhood obesity epidemic started its upswing in high-income countries (1) but it was not until the early 2000s that the issue hit the headlines and really forced the public and politicians to take note (2). That awareness has sparked a surge in research, policies, and programs, but what is the current state of action and, more importantly, where to from here for the prevention of childhood obesity?<br /

DIABRISK - SL Prevention of cardio-metabolic disease with life style modification in young urban Sri Lankan's - study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Urban South-Asian's are predisposed to early onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is an urgent need for country specific primary prevention strategies to address the growing burden of cardio-metabolic disease in this population. The aim of this clinical trial is to evaluate whether intensive (3-monthly) lifestyle modification advice is superior to a less-intensive (12 monthly; control group) lifestyle modification advice on a primary composite cardio-metabolic end point in 'at risk' urban subjects aged between 5-40 years.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>This is an open randomised controlled parallel group clinical trial performed at a single centre in Colombo, Sri-Lanka. A cluster sampling strategy was used to select a large representative sample of subjects aged between 5-40 years at high risk of T2DM and CVD for the intervention study. We have screened 23,298 (males 47% females 53%) healthy subjects for four risk factors: obesity, elevated waist circumference, family history of diabetes and physical inactivity, using a questionnaire and anthropometry. Those with two or more risk-factors were recruited to the intervention trial. We aim to recruit 4600 subjects for the intervention trial. The primary composite cardio-metabolic end point is; new onset T2DM, impaired glucose tolerance, impaired fasting glycaemia, new onset hypertension and albuminuria, following 5 years of intervention. The effect of the intervention on pre-specified secondary endpoints will also be evaluated. The study will be conducted according to good clinical and ethical practice, data analysis and reporting guidelines.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>DIABRISK-SL is a large population based trial to evaluate the prevalence of diabetes, pre-diabetes and cardio-metabolic risk factors among young urban Sri-Lankans and the effect of a primary prevention strategy on cardio-metabolic disease end points. This work will enable country specific and regional cardio-metabolic risk scores to be derived. Further if the proposed intervention is successful the results of this study can be translated and implemented as a low-cost primary prevention tool in Sri-Lanka and other low/middle income developing countries.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>The trial is registered with the World Health Organisation and Sri-Lanka clinical trial registry number SLCTR/2008/003</p

Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria intervention coverage, morbidity, and mortality in Africa: a geospatial modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the burden of malaria in Africa since 2000, but those gains could be jeopardised if the COVID-19 pandemic affects the availability of key malaria control interventions. The aim of this study was to evaluate plausible effects on malaria incidence and mortality under different levels of disruption to malaria control. METHODS: Using an established set of spatiotemporal Bayesian geostatistical models, we generated geospatial estimates across malaria-endemic African countries of the clinical case incidence and mortality of malaria, incorporating an updated database of parasite rate surveys, insecticide-treated net (ITN) coverage, and effective treatment rates. We established a baseline estimate for the anticipated malaria burden in Africa in the absence of COVID-19-related disruptions, and repeated the analysis for nine hypothetical scenarios in which effective treatment with an antimalarial drug and distribution of ITNs (both through routine channels and mass campaigns) were reduced to varying extents. FINDINGS: We estimated 215·2 (95% uncertainty interval 143·7-311·6) million cases and 386·4 (307·8-497·8) thousand deaths across malaria-endemic African countries in 2020 in our baseline scenario of undisrupted intervention coverage. With greater reductions in access to effective antimalarial drug treatment, our model predicted increasing numbers of cases and deaths: 224·1 (148·7-326·8) million cases and 487·9 (385·3-634·6) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction in antimalarial drug coverage; 233·1 (153·7-342·5) million cases and 597·4 (468·0-784·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 242·3 (158·7-358·8) million cases and 715·2 (556·4-947·9) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. Halting planned 2020 ITN mass distribution campaigns and reducing routine ITN distributions by 25%-75% also increased malaria burden to a total of 230·5 (151·6-343·3) million cases and 411·7 (322·8-545·5) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 232·8 (152·3-345·9) million cases and 415·5 (324·3-549·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 234·0 (152·9-348·4) million cases and 417·6 (325·5-553·1) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. When ITN coverage and antimalarial drug coverage were synchronously reduced, malaria burden increased to 240·5 (156·5-358·2) million cases and 520·9 (404·1-691·9) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 251·0 (162·2-377·0) million cases and 640·2 (492·0-856·7) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 261·6 (167·7-396·8) million cases and 768·6 (586·1-1038·7) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. INTERPRETATION: Under pessimistic scenarios, COVID-19-related disruption to malaria control in Africa could almost double malaria mortality in 2020, and potentially lead to even greater increases in subsequent years. To avoid a reversal of two decades of progress against malaria, averting this public health disaster must remain an integrated priority alongside the response to COVID-19. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Channel 7 Telethon Trust, Western Australia

Incident type 2 diabetes attributable to suboptimal diet in 184 countries

The global burden of diet-attributable type 2 diabetes (T2D) is not well established. This risk assessment model estimated T2D incidence among adults attributable to direct and body weight-mediated effects of 11 dietary factors in 184 countries in 1990 and 2018. In 2018, suboptimal intake of these dietary factors was estimated to be attributable to 14.1 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 13.814.4 million) incident T2D cases, representing 70.3% (68.871.8%) of new cases globally. Largest T2D burdens were attributable to insufficient whole-grain intake (26.1% (25.027.1%)), excess refined rice and wheat intake (24.6% (22.327.2%)) and excess processed meat intake (20.3% (18.323.5%)). Across regions, highest proportional burdens were in central and eastern Europe and central Asia (85.6% (83.487.7%)) and Latin America and the Caribbean (81.8% (80.183.4%)); and lowest proportional burdens were in South Asia (55.4% (52.160.7%)). Proportions of diet-attributable T2D were generally larger in men than in women and were inversely correlated with age. Diet-attributable T2D was generally larger among urban versus rural residents and higher versus lower educated individuals, except in high-income countries, central and eastern Europe and central Asia, where burdens were larger in rural residents and in lower educated individuals. Compared with 1990, global diet-attributable T2D increased by 2.6 absolute percentage points (8.6 million more cases) in 2018, with variation in these trends by world region and dietary factor. These findings inform nutritional priorities and clinical and public health planning to improve dietary quality and reduce T2D globally. (c) 2023, The Author(s)

Children's and adolescents' rising animal-source food intakes in 1990-2018 were impacted by age, region, parental education and urbanicity

Animal-source foods (ASF) provide nutrition for children and adolescents physical and cognitive development. Here, we use data from the Global Dietary Database and Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify global, regional and national ASF intakes between 1990 and 2018 by age group across 185 countries, representing 93% of the worlds child population. Mean ASF intake was 1.9 servings per day, representing 16% of children consuming at least three daily servings. Intake was similar between boys and girls, but higher among urban children with educated parents. Consumption varied by age from 0.6 at <1 year to 2.5 servings per day at 1519 years. Between 1990 and 2018, mean ASF intake increased by 0.5 servings per week, with increases in all regions except sub-Saharan Africa. In 2018, total ASF consumption was highest in Russia, Brazil, Mexico and Turkey, and lowest in Uganda, India, Kenya and Bangladesh. These findings can inform policy to address malnutrition through targeted ASF consumption programmes. (c) 2023, The Author(s)

Impact of nonoptimal intakes of saturated, polyunsaturated, and trans fat on global burdens of coronary heart disease

Background: Saturated fat (SFA), ω‐6 (n‐6) polyunsaturated fat (PUFA), and trans fat (TFA) influence risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), but attributable CHD mortalities by country, age, sex, and time are unclear. Methods and Results: National intakes of SFA, n‐6 PUFA, and TFA were estimated using a Bayesian hierarchical model based on country‐specific dietary surveys; food availability data; and, for TFA, industry reports on fats/oils and packaged foods. Etiologic effects of dietary fats on CHD mortality were derived from meta‐analyses of prospective cohorts and CHD mortality rates from the 2010 Global Burden of Diseases study. Absolute and proportional attributable CHD mortality were computed using a comparative risk assessment framework. In 2010, nonoptimal intakes of n‐6 PUFA, SFA, and TFA were estimated to result in 711 800 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 680 700–745 000), 250 900 (95% UI 236 900–265 800), and 537 200 (95% UI 517 600–557 000) CHD deaths per year worldwide, accounting for 10.3% (95% UI 9.9%–10.6%), 3.6%, (95% UI 3.5%–3.6%) and 7.7% (95% UI 7.6%–7.9%) of global CHD mortality. Tropical oil–consuming countries were estimated to have the highest proportional n‐6 PUFA– and SFA‐attributable CHD mortality, whereas Egypt, Pakistan, and Canada were estimated to have the highest proportional TFA‐attributable CHD mortality. From 1990 to 2010 globally, the estimated proportional CHD mortality decreased by 9% for insufficient n‐6 PUFA and by 21% for higher SFA, whereas it increased by 4% for higher TFA, with the latter driven by increases in low‐ and middle‐income countries. Conclusions: Nonoptimal intakes of n‐6 PUFA, TFA, and SFA each contribute to significant estimated CHD mortality, with important heterogeneity across countries that informs nation‐specific clinical, public health, and policy priorities.peer-reviewe