Demographic and Regional Trends of Smoking among Thai Females from 1986 to 2014

Background: Smoking is a major public health burden causing substantial morbidity and mortality. The aim of the study was to assess the prevalences and demographic trends of smoking among Thai females.  Methods Data from Thailand’s National Statistics Office for 1986 to 2014 were used. Multiple logistic regression was implemented to identify the prevalences and trends of female smoking by region (Bangkok, Central, Northeast, North, and South) and area (Rural and Urban).  Results: The overall prevalence of smoking was 3.4% among females aged 15 years and above in 2014. Gradually decreasing trends of smoking were observed from 1991 to 2007. Afterwards, the trends of smoking was found higher in 2011 to 2014 among aged 15-39 years. Furthermore, there were substantial differences in female smoking in different regions and areas. Of those, the Northern Thailand and rural areas had the highest prevalence of smokers.  Conclusion: Smoking among Thai females in the past 20 years had a decreasing trend, but it can be seen that since 2007 the trend of smoking had shown an increasing trend and a variation among the regions. This imply that, tobacco control policies are important and in need particularly for young females, living in rural areas and Northern provinces.&nbsp

Forecasting fish catches in the Songkhla Lake basin

This study aims to develop statistical models for forecasting the quantity of fish catches in the Songkhla Lake basin in southern Thailand. Data comprise a total monthly fish catch in tonnes from January 1977 to December 2006. We fitted an observation-driven model to the logarithm of the total monthly fish catch. The model contains seasonal effects and time-lagged terms for the preceding two months. We obtained an r-squared of 51% with both the seasonal and timelagged coefficients which was statistically significant. Although the catch has decreased substantially in the last ten years, no long-term trend is evident. This model can be used for short-term and possibly medium-term fish catch forecasting. The catch in the Songkhla Lake basin may have exceeded the sustainable capacity due to over-exploitation and illegal fishing. Strengthening the political will to develop enforceable and sustainable fishing practices is therefore desirable

Neonatal mortality at the neonatal unit: the situation at a teaching hospital in Ghana

Background: The first 28 days of life- the neonatal period is the most vulnerable time for a child’s survival. Globally, neonatal mortality has seen a downward trend in recent years. The main objective of this study was to determine the percentage of neonatal mortality and to provide information on factors associated with neonatal mortality at the neonatal unit of a tertiary health facility or teaching hospital.Methods: Data of neonates admitted to the neonatal in-patient unit of the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital (KATH) in Ghana from January 2013 to May 2014 were analyzed. Logistic regression model was performed to assess the association between neonatal mortality and predictors.Results: A total of 5,195 neonatal admissions were recorded. The overall percentage of neonatal mortality was 20.2%. Infants with very low birth weight, having 5-minute Apgar score lower than 4, newborns with pre-term delivery, being referred from other health facilities, and being diagnosed with respiratory distress and birth asphyxia had a higher percentage of neonatal mortality.Conclusion: The mortality at the neonatal in-patient unit at the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital in Ghana is very high. There is the need for continuous attention and interventions to help reduce the risk of mortality among neonates admitted to the facility.Keywords: Logistic regression, neonatal mortality, Kumasi

Prediction of HIV mortality in Thailand using three data sets from the national AIDS program database

HIV continues to hinder the growth and development of a country and identifying the mortality rate will help to address this problem. Therefore, we sought to examine HIV mortality in Thailand in the years 2014 and 2015. A retrospective study was conducted to investigate HIV mortality in all regions of Thailand. For the reliability of this study, the data were drawn from two main sources, Bureau of Registration and Administration (BORA) and the National Health Security Office (NHSO) of Thailand. A total of 23,243 deaths were recorded in years 2014 and 2015. Negative binomial regression was used to predict and compare HIV mortality rates by year, age group and gender. The overall HIV mortality accounted for 2.6% of all reported deaths, representing 18.3 deaths per 100,000 populations. Among HIV deaths, 91% of them participated in the National AIDS Program (NAP) and 56% of them received Antiretroviral Therapy (ART). There was statistically significant effect, with males having a higher death rates than females. Despite the relevance of reduction of HIV mortality in Thailand, our study clearly shows that HIV mortality in Thailand is much dependent on age and gender. Thus, we suggest continued effort is needed to address gender and age difference

Factors Contributing to Nurse Productivity in Public Hospitals in Surabaya, Indonesia

This study aimed at examining the factors that contribute to nursing productivity in public hospitals in Surabaya. Data relating to the respondents’ characteristics and their productivity were collected using a questionnaire incorporating the Behaviorally Anchored Rating Scale. The samples were drawn from 31 nurses form the emergency room (ER) and 29 nurses from the intensive care unit (ICU) wards of a public hospital in Surabaya, Indonesia, of whom, 52 nurses participated voluntarily and indicated their willingness to respond by signing an informed consent form. The chi-square and Fisher’s exact test was used to determine associations between the determinants (demographic characteristics, lifestyle and nutritional status) and productivity and the strength of association was identified by using logistic regression. The results from this study found that gender had borderline significant and duration of work experience had a significant association with nurse productivity. Therefore, gender and duration of working experience are factors which should be taken into consideration when managing human resources working in ERs and ICUs while basic nursing competencies are clearly also important factors in maintaining productivity

Neonatal mortality at the neonatal unit: the situation at a teaching hospital in Ghana

Background: The first 28 days of life- the neonatal period is the most vulnerable time for a child\u2019s survival. Globally, neonatal mortality has seen a downward trend in recent years. The main objective of this study was to determine the percentage of neonatal mortality and to provide information on factors associated with neonatal mortality at the neonatal unit of a tertiary health facility or teaching hospital. Methods: Data of neonates admitted to the neonatal in-patient unit of the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital (KATH) in Ghana from January 2013 to May 2014 were analyzed. Logistic regression model was performed to assess the association between neonatal mortality and predictors. Results: A total of 5,195 neonatal admissions were recorded. The overall percentage of neonatal mortality was 20.2%. Infants with very low birth weight, having 5-minute Apgar score lower than 4, newborns with pre-term delivery, being referred from other health facilities, and being diagnosed with respiratory distress and birth asphyxia had a higher percentage of neonatal mortality. Conclusion: The mortality at the neonatal in-patient unit at the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital in Ghana is very high. There is the need for continuous attention and interventions to help reduce the risk of mortality among neonates admitted to the facility

วิธีการทางสถิติสำหรับการสร้างตัวแบบอุบัติการณ์การตายจากโรคติดเชื้อและระยะเวลาการนอนของผู้ป่วยที่ตายในโรงพยาบาลในภาคใต้ของประเทศไทย

Doctor of Philosophy (Research Methodology

Estimating external causes of death in Thailand 1996-2009 based on the 2005 Verbal Autopsy study

This study aimed to develop models based on Verbal Autopsy (VA) data and to estimate correct number of deaths from external causes in Thailand from 1996 to 2009. Logistic regression was used to create models of the three external causes of death classified by province, gender-age group and Vital registration (VR) cause-location group. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to validate the models by matching the number of reported deaths to the number of deaths predicted by the models. The models provided accurate prediction results, with false positive error rates 1.6%, 2.0% and 0.6% and sensitivities 73.8%, 46.3% and 62.0%, respectively. The results reveal that under-reporting of external causes of death increased over the 14-year period. Our statistical method confirms that the Thai 2005 VA data can be used to estimate external causes of death from VR report in Thailand to allow for the under-reporting rate