Time-Varying Emulator for Short and Long-Term Analysis of Coastal Flood Hazard Potential

Rising seas coupled with ever increasing coastal populations present the potential for significant social and economic loss in the 21st century. Relatively short records of the full multidimensional space contributing to total water level coastal flooding events (astronomic tides, sea level anomalies, storm surges, wave run‐up, etc.) result in historical observations of only a small fraction of the possible range of conditions that could produce severe flooding. The Time‐varying Emulator for Short‐ and Long‐Term analysis of coastal flood hazard potential is presented here as a methodology capable of producing new iterations of the sea‐state parameters associated with the present‐day Pacific Ocean climate to simulate many synthetic extreme compound events. The emulator utilizes weather typing of fundamental climate drivers (sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, etc.) to reduce complexity and produces new daily synoptic weather chronologies with an auto‐regressive logistic model accounting for conditional dependencies on the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, seasonality, and the prior two days of weather progression. Joint probabilities of sea‐state parameters unique to simulated weather patterns are used to create new time series of the hypothetical components contributing to synthetic total water levels (swells from multiple directions coupled with water levels due to wind setup, temperature anomalies, and tides). The Time‐varying Emulator for Short‐ and Long‐Term analysis of coastal flood hazard potential reveals the importance of considering the multivariate nature of extreme coastal flooding, while progressing the ability to incorporate large‐scale climate variability into site specific studies assessing hazards within the context of predicted climate change in the 21st century

Physics of dark energy particles

We consider the astrophysical and cosmological implications of the existence of a minimum density and mass due to the presence of the cosmological constant. If there is a minimum length in nature, then there is an absolute minimum mass corresponding to a hypothetical particle with radius of the order of the Planck length. On the other hand, quantum mechanical considerations suggest a different minimum mass. These particles associated with the dark energy can be interpreted as the ``quanta'' of the cosmological constant. We study the possibility that these particles can form stable stellar-type configurations through gravitational condensation, and their Jeans and Chandrasekhar masses are estimated. From the requirement of the energetic stability of the minimum density configuration on a macroscopic scale one obtains a mass of the order of 10^55 g, of the same order of magnitude as the mass of the universe. This mass can also be interpreted as the Jeans mass of the dark energy fluid. Furthermore we present a representation of the cosmological constant and of the total mass of the universe in terms of `classical' fundamental constants.Comment: 10 pages, no figures; typos corrected, 4 references added; 1 reference added; reference added; entirely revised version, contains new parts, now 14 page

Ellipsoidal configurations in the de Sitter spacetime

The cosmological constant $\Lambda$ modifies certain properties of large astrophysical rotating configurations with ellipsoidal geometries, provided the objects are not too compact. Assuming an equilibrium configuration and so using the tensor virial equation with $\Lambda$ we explore several equilibrium properties of homogeneous rotating ellipsoids. One shows that the bifurcation point, which in the oblate case distinguishes the Maclaurin ellipsoid from the Jacobi ellipsoid, is sensitive to the cosmological constant. Adding to that, the cosmological constant allows triaxial configurations of equilibrium rotating the minor axis as solutions of the virial equations. The significance of the result lies in the fact that minor axis rotation is indeed found in nature. Being impossible for the oblate case, it is permissible for prolate geometries, with $\Lambda$ zero and positive. For the triaxial case, however, an equilibrium solution is found only for non-zero positive $\Lambda$. Finally, we solve the tensor virial equation for the angular velocity and display special effects of the cosmological constant there.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, published in Class. Quant. Grav. References adde

Comparing two approaches to Hawking radiation of Schwarzschild-de Sitter black holes

We study two different ways to analyze the Hawking evaporation of a Schwarzschild-de Sitter black hole. The first one uses the standard approach of surface gravity evaluated at the possible horizons. The second method derives its results via the Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP) which offers a yet different method to look at the problem. In the case of a Schwarzschild black hole it is known that this methods affirms the existence of a black hole remnant (minimal mass $M_{\rm min}$) of the order of Planck mass $m_{\rm pl}$ and a corresponding maximal temperature $T_{\rm max}$ also of the order of $m_{\rm pl}$. The standard $T(M)$ dispersion relation is, in the GUP formulation, deformed in the vicinity of Planck length $l_{\rm pl}$ which is the smallest value the horizon can take. We generalize the uncertainty principle to Schwarzschild-de Sitter spacetime with the cosmological constant $\varLambda=1/m_\varLambda^2$ and find a dual relation which, compared to $M_{\rm min}$ and $T_{\rm max}$, affirms the existence of a maximal mass $M_{\rm max}$ of the order $(m_{\rm pl}/m_\varLambda)m_{\rm pl}$, minimum temperature $T_{\rm min} \sim m_\varLambda$. As compared to the standard approach we find a deformed dispersion relation $T(M)$ close to $l_{\rm pl}$ and in addition at the maximally possible horizon approximately at $r_\varLambda=1/m_\varLambda$. $T(M)$ agrees with the standard results at $l_{\rm pl} \ll r \ll r_\varLambda$ (or equivalently at $M_{\rm min} \ll M \ll M_{\rm max}$).Comment: new references adde

A Climate Index Optimized for Longshore Sediment Transport Reveals Interannual and Multidecadal Littoral Cell Rotations

A recent 35-year endpoint shoreline change analysis revealed significant counterclockwiserotations occurring in north-central Oregon, USA, littoral cells that extend 10s of kilometers in length.While the potential for severe El Niños to contribute to littoral cell rotations at seasonal to interannual scalewas previously recognized, the dynamics resulting in persistent (multidecadal) rotation were unknown,largely due to a lack of historical wave conditions extending back multiple decades and the difficulty ofseparating the timescales of shoreline variability in a high energy region. This study addresses this questionby (1) developing a statistical downscaling framework to characterize wave conditions relevant for longshoresediment transport during data-poor decades and (2) applying a one-line shoreline change model toquantitatively assess the potential for such large embayed beaches to rotate. A climateINdex was optimizedto capture variability in longshore wave power as a proxy for potentialLOngshore Sediment Transport(LOST_IN), and a procedure was developed to simulate many realizations of potential wave conditions fromthe index. Waves were transformed dynamically with Simulating Waves Nearshore to the nearshore asinputs to a one-line model that revealed shoreline rotations of embayed beaches at multiple time and spatialscales not previously discernible from infrequent observations. Model results indicate that littoral cellsrespond to both interannual and multidecadal oscillations, producing comparable shoreline excursions toextreme El Niño winters. The technique quantitatively relates morphodynamic forcing to specific climatepatterns and has the potential to better identify and quantify coastal variability on timescales relevant to achanging climate.This work would not have been possible without funding from the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP) through NSF grant DGE-1314109, the Coastal and Ocean Climate Applications (COCA) program through NOAA grant NA15OAR4310243, NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program (RISA), under NOAA grant NA15OAR4310145, and the Spanish Ministerio de Educación Cultura y Deporte FPU (Formación del Profesorado Universitario) studentship BOE-A-2013-12235. Beach survey data collection undertaken on the Oregon coast was made possible by the Northwest Association of Networked Ocean Observing Systems (NANOOS) through NOAA grant NA16NOS0120019

A Multimodal Wave Spectrum-Based Approach for Statistical Downscaling of Local Wave Climate

Characterization of wave climate by bulk wave parameters is insufficient for many coastal studies, including those focused on assessing coastal hazards and long-term wave climate influences on coastal evolution. This issue is particularly relevant for studies using statistical downscaling of atmospheric fields to local wave conditions, which are often multimodal in large ocean basins (e.g., Pacific Ocean). Swell may be generated in vastly different wave generation regions, yielding complex wave spectra that are inadequately represented by a single set of bulk wave parameters. Furthermore, the relationship between atmospheric systems and local wave conditions is complicated by variations in arrival time of wave groups from different parts of the basin. Here, this study addresses these two challenges by improving upon the spatiotemporal definition of the atmospheric predictor used in the statistical downscaling of local wave climate. The improved methodology separates the local wave spectrum into ?wave families,? defined by spectral peaks and discrete generation regions, and relates atmospheric conditions in distant regions of the ocean basin to local wave conditions by incorporating travel times computed from effective energy flux across the ocean basin. When applied to locations with multimodal wave spectra, including Southern California and Trujillo, Peru, the new methodology improves the ability of the statistical model to project significant wave height, peak period, and direction for each wave family, retaining more information from the full wave spectrum. This work is the base of statistical downscaling by weather types, which has recently been applied to coastal flooding and morphodynamic applications.This work was supported by the U.S. Geological Survey Grant/Cooperative Agreement G15AC00426. AR, JAAA, and FJM were supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad Grant BIA2014-59643-R. PC was supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad Grant BIA2015-70644-R. JAAA was funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte FPU (Formación del Profesorado Universitario) studentship BOEA-2013-12235. Support was provided from the U.S. DOD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP Project RC-2644) through the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). CFSR atmospheric data are available online (at https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/climate-forecastsystem-reanalysis-cfsr). Reanalyses of ocean data are available for research purposes through IH Cantabria (contact [email protected])

Equilibrium configurations of fluids and their stability in higher dimensions

We study equilibrium shapes, stability and possible bifurcation diagrams of fluids in higher dimensions, held together by either surface tension or self-gravity. We consider the equilibrium shape and stability problem of self-gravitating spheroids, establishing the formalism to generalize the MacLaurin sequence to higher dimensions. We show that such simple models, of interest on their own, also provide accurate descriptions of their general relativistic relatives with event horizons. The examples worked out here hint at some model-independent dynamics, and thus at some universality: smooth objects seem always to be well described by both ``replicas'' (either self-gravity or surface tension). As an example, we exhibit an instability afflicting self-gravitating (Newtonian) fluid cylinders. This instability is the exact analogue, within Newtonian gravity, of the Gregory-Laflamme instability in general relativity. Another example considered is a self-gravitating Newtonian torus made of a homogeneous incompressible fluid. We recover the features of the black ring in general relativity.Comment: 42 pages, 11 Figures, RevTeX4. Accepted for publication in Classical and Quantum Gravity. v2: Minor corrections and references adde

Dark spinor models in gravitation and cosmology

We introduce and carefully define an entire class of field theories based on non-standard spinors. Their dominant interaction is via the gravitational field which makes them naturally dark; we refer to them as Dark Spinors. We provide a critical analysis of previous proposals for dark spinors noting that they violate Lorentz invariance. As a working assumption we restrict our analysis to non-standard spinors which preserve Lorentz invariance, whilst being non-local and explicitly construct such a theory. We construct the complete energy-momentum tensor and derive its components explicitly by assuming a specific projection operator. It is natural to next consider dark spinors in a cosmological setting. We find various interesting solutions where the spinor field leads to slow roll and fast roll de Sitter solutions. We also analyse models where the spinor is coupled conformally to gravity, and consider the perturbations and stability of the spinor.Comment: 43 pages. Several new sections and details added. JHEP in prin

Dark energy domination in the Virgocentric flow

The standard \LambdaCDM cosmological model implies that all celestial bodies are embedded in a perfectly uniform dark energy background, represented by Einstein's cosmological constant, and experience its repulsive antigravity action. Can dark energy have strong dynamical effects on small cosmic scales as well as globally? Continuing our efforts to clarify this question, we focus now on the Virgo Cluster and the flow of expansion around it. We interpret the Hubble diagram, from a new database of velocities and distances of galaxies in the cluster and its environment, using a nonlinear analytical model which incorporates the antigravity force in terms of Newtonian mechanics. The key parameter is the zero-gravity radius, the distance at which gravity and antigravity are in balance. Our conclusions are: 1. The interplay between the gravity of the cluster and the antigravity of the dark energy background determines the kinematical structure of the system and controls its evolution. 2. The gravity dominates the quasi-stationary bound cluster, while the antigravity controls the Virgocentric flow, bringing order and regularity to the flow, which reaches linearity and the global Hubble rate at distances \ga 15 Mpc. 3. The cluster and the flow form a system similar to the Local Group and its outflow. In the velocity-distance diagram, the cluster-flow structure reproduces the group-flow structure with a scaling factor of about 10; the zero-gravity radius for the cluster system is also 10 times larger. The phase and dynamical similarity of the systems on the scales of 1-30 Mpc suggests that a two-component pattern may be universal for groups and clusters: a quasi-stationary bound central component and an expanding outflow around it, due to the nonlinear gravity-antigravity interplay with the dark energy dominating in the flow component.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, Astronomy and Astrophysics (accepted

Euclid preparation: XII. Optimizing the photometric sample of the Euclid survey for galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing analyses

Photometric redshifts (photo-zs) are one of the main ingredients in the analysis of cosmological probes. Their accuracy particularly affects the results of the analyses of galaxy clustering with photometrically selected galaxies (GCph) and weak lensing. In the next decade, space missions such as Euclid will collect precise and accurate photometric measurements for millions of galaxies. These data should be complemented with upcoming ground-based observations to derive precise and accurate photo-zs. In this article we explore how the tomographic redshift binning and depth of ground-based observations will affect the cosmological constraints expected from the Euclid mission. We focus on GCph and extend the study to include galaxy-galaxy lensing (GGL). We add a layer of complexity to the analysis by simulating several realistic photo-z distributions based on the Euclid Consortium Flagship simulation and using a machine learning photo-z algorithm. We then use the Fisher matrix formalism together with these galaxy samples to study the cosmological constraining power as a function of redshift binning, survey depth, and photo-z accuracy. We find that bins with an equal width in redshift provide a higher figure of merit (FoM) than equipopulated bins and that increasing the number of redshift bins from ten to 13 improves the FoM by 35% and 15% for GCph and its combination with GGL, respectively. For GCph, an increase in the survey depth provides a higher FoM. However, when we include faint galaxies beyond the limit of the spectroscopic training data, the resulting FoM decreases because of the spurious photo-zs. When combining GCph and GGL, the number density of the sample, which is set by the survey depth, is the main factor driving the variations in the FoM. Adding galaxies at faint magnitudes and high redshift increases the FoM, even when they are beyond the spectroscopic limit, since the number density increase compensates for the photo-z degradation in this case. We conclude that there is more information that can be extracted beyond the nominal ten tomographic redshift bins of Euclid and that we should be cautious when adding faint galaxies into our sample since they can degrade the cosmological constraints