Trends in Cancer Mortality in 15 Industrialized Countries, 1969-1986

Background: Assessing trends in cancer provides a means for gauging progress against the disease, estimating future demands for care and treatment, and suggesting clues about shifting causal factors that may account for the more recent changes. Purpose: This study was designed to evaluate trends in the major sites of cancer associated with high mortality rates in 15 industrialized countries. To highlight differences among regions, we grouped these countries into six geographic areas: United States, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, East Asia, Oceania, and Nordic countries. In addition, cancer mortality trends in these regions were compared with incidence patterns in the United States. Methods: Data provided by the World Health Organization were used to evaluate age-specific mortality trends from 1969 through 1986 for lung, breast, prostate, stomach, and colorectal cancers and for all other sites considered as a group. We also assembled and analyzed data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute for the same sites and age groups from 1973 through 1986. Results: Over the period 1969 through 1986, recorded cancer mortality in persons aged 45 years and older in the six regions studied has increased for lung, breast, and prostate cancers in most age groups, while the decline in stomach cancer mortality is substantial. The increase in lung cancer deaths in men aged 45-54 years has slowed greatly or reversed in all areas except Eastern Europe and East Asia. Trends for intestinal cancer vary by age and region. For all other sites considered as a group, increases have occurred for persons older than 64 years in most regions. In Eastern Europe, there are disturbingly high rates and rapid increases for several of the major forms of cancer in persons aged 45-54 years. In general, trends for cancer incidence in the United States parallel those for mortality. For intestinal cancer, however, incidence has increased while mortality has declined. Conclusions: The trends we report cannot be explained solely by changes in cigarette smoking or aging. Other causes of changes in cancer incidence and mortality need to be determined. Implications: The increasing and decreasing trends in mortality from and incidence of cancer that we found are important for health care planning and may also suggest opportunities for research in cancer prevention. [J Natl Cancer Inst 84: 313-320, 1992

Characterization of neurophysiologic and neurocognitive biomarkers for use in genomic and clinical outcome studies of schizophrenia.

BackgroundEndophenotypes are quantitative, laboratory-based measures representing intermediate links in the pathways between genetic variation and the clinical expression of a disorder. Ideal endophenotypes exhibit deficits in patients, are stable over time and across shifts in psychopathology, and are suitable for repeat testing. Unfortunately, many leading candidate endophenotypes in schizophrenia have not been fully characterized simultaneously in large cohorts of patients and controls across these properties. The objectives of this study were to characterize the extent to which widely-used neurophysiological and neurocognitive endophenotypes are: 1) associated with schizophrenia, 2) stable over time, independent of state-related changes, and 3) free of potential practice/maturation or differential attrition effects in schizophrenia patients (SZ) and nonpsychiatric comparison subjects (NCS). Stability of clinical and functional measures was also assessed.MethodsParticipants (SZ n = 341; NCS n = 205) completed a battery of neurophysiological (MMN, P3a, P50 and N100 indices, PPI, startle habituation, antisaccade), neurocognitive (WRAT-3 Reading, LNS-forward, LNS-reorder, WCST-64, CVLT-II). In addition, patients were rated on clinical symptom severity as well as functional capacity and status measures (GAF, UPSA, SOF). 223 subjects (SZ n = 163; NCS n = 58) returned for retesting after 1 year.ResultsMost neurophysiological and neurocognitive measures exhibited medium-to-large deficits in schizophrenia, moderate-to-substantial stability across the retest interval, and were independent of fluctuations in clinical status. Clinical symptoms and functional measures also exhibited substantial stability. A Longitudinal Endophenotype Ranking System (LERS) was created to rank neurophysiological and neurocognitive biomarkers according to their effect sizes across endophenotype criteria.ConclusionsThe majority of neurophysiological and neurocognitive measures exhibited deficits in patients, stability over a 1-year interval and did not demonstrate practice or time effects supporting their use as endophenotypes in neural substrate and genomic studies. These measures hold promise for informing the "gene-to-phene gap" in schizophrenia research

Timing of pubertal stages and breast cancer risk : the Breakthrough Generations Study

Introduction: Breast development and hormonal changes at puberty might affect breast cancer risk, but epidemiological analyses have focussed largely on age at menarche and not at other pubertal stages. Methods: We investigated associations between the timing of pubertal stages and breast cancer risk using data from a cohort study of 104,931 women (Breakthrough Generations Study, UK, 2003–2013). Pubertal variables were reported retrospectively at baseline. Breast cancer risk was analysed using Cox regression models with breast cancer diagnosis as the outcome of interest, attained age as the underlying time variable, and adjustment for potentially confounding variables. Results: During follow-up (mean = 4.1 years), 1094 breast cancers (including ductal carcinoma in situ) occurred. An increased breast cancer risk was associated with earlier thelarche (age when breast growth begins; HR [95% CI] = 1.23 [1.02, 1.48], 1 [referent] and 0.80 [0.69, 0.93] for ≤10, 11–12 and ≥13 years respectively), menarche (initiation of menses; 1.06 [0.93, 1.21], 1 [referent] and 0.78 [0.62, 0.99] for ≤12, 13–14 and ≥15 years), regular periods (0.99 [0.83, 1.18], 1 [referent] and 0.74 [0.59, 0.92] for ≤12, 13–14 and ≥15 years) and age reached adult height (1.25 [1.03, 1.52], 1 [referent] and 1.07 [0.87, 1.32] for ≤14, 15–16 and ≥17 years), and with increased time between thelarche and menarche (0.87 [0.65, 1.15], 1 [referent], 1.14 [0.96, 1.34] and 1.27 [1.04, 1.55] for <0, 0, 1 and ≥2 years), and shorter time between menarche and regular periods (1 [referent], 0.87 [0.73, 1.04] and 0.66 [0.50, 0.88] for 0, 1 and ≥2 years). These associations were generally similar when considered separately for premenopausal and postmenopausal breast cancer. Conclusions: Breast duct development may be a time of heightened susceptibility to risk of carcinogenesis, and greater attention needs to be given to the relation of breast cancer risk to the different stages of puberty

Timing of pubertal stages and breast cancer risk : the Breakthrough Generations Study

Introduction: Breast development and hormonal changes at puberty might affect breast cancer risk, but epidemiological analyses have focussed largely on age at menarche and not at other pubertal stages. Methods: We investigated associations between the timing of pubertal stages and breast cancer risk using data from a cohort study of 104,931 women (Breakthrough Generations Study, UK, 2003–2013). Pubertal variables were reported retrospectively at baseline. Breast cancer risk was analysed using Cox regression models with breast cancer diagnosis as the outcome of interest, attained age as the underlying time variable, and adjustment for potentially confounding variables. Results: During follow-up (mean = 4.1 years), 1094 breast cancers (including ductal carcinoma in situ) occurred. An increased breast cancer risk was associated with earlier thelarche (age when breast growth begins; HR [95% CI] = 1.23 [1.02, 1.48], 1 [referent] and 0.80 [0.69, 0.93] for ≤10, 11–12 and ≥13 years respectively), menarche (initiation of menses; 1.06 [0.93, 1.21], 1 [referent] and 0.78 [0.62, 0.99] for ≤12, 13–14 and ≥15 years), regular periods (0.99 [0.83, 1.18], 1 [referent] and 0.74 [0.59, 0.92] for ≤12, 13–14 and ≥15 years) and age reached adult height (1.25 [1.03, 1.52], 1 [referent] and 1.07 [0.87, 1.32] for ≤14, 15–16 and ≥17 years), and with increased time between thelarche and menarche (0.87 [0.65, 1.15], 1 [referent], 1.14 [0.96, 1.34] and 1.27 [1.04, 1.55] for <0, 0, 1 and ≥2 years), and shorter time between menarche and regular periods (1 [referent], 0.87 [0.73, 1.04] and 0.66 [0.50, 0.88] for 0, 1 and ≥2 years). These associations were generally similar when considered separately for premenopausal and postmenopausal breast cancer. Conclusions: Breast duct development may be a time of heightened susceptibility to risk of carcinogenesis, and greater attention needs to be given to the relation of breast cancer risk to the different stages of puberty

Population-based estimates of the prevalence of FMR1 expansion mutations in women with early menopause and primary ovarian insufficiency

PURPOSE: Primary ovarian insufficiency before the age of 40 years affects 1% of the female population and is characterized by permanent cessation of menstruation. Genetic causes include FMR1 expansion mutations. Previous studies have estimated mutation prevalence in clinical referrals for primary ovarian insufficiency, but these are likely to be biased as compared with cases in the general population. The prevalence of FMR1 expansion mutations in early menopause (between the ages of 40 and 45 years) has not been published. METHODS: We studied FMR1 CGG repeat number in more than 2,000 women from the Breakthrough Generations Study who underwent menopause before the age of 46 years. We determined the prevalence of premutation (55–200 CGG repeats) and intermediate (45–54 CGG repeats) alleles in women with primary ovarian insufficiency (n = 254) and early menopause (n = 1,881). RESULTS: The prevalence of the premutation was 2.0% in primary ovarian insufficiency, 0.7% in early menopause, and 0.4% in controls, corresponding to odds ratios of 5.4 (95% confidence interval = 1.7–17.4; P = 0.004) for primary ovarian insufficiency and 2.0 (95% confidence interval = 0.8–5.1; P = 0.12) for early menopause. Combining primary ovarian insufficiency and early menopause gave an odds ratio of 2.4 (95% confidence interval = 1.02–5.8; P = 0.04). Intermediate alleles were not significant risk factors for either early menopause or primary ovarian insufficiency. CONCLUSION: FMR1 premutations are not as prevalent in women with ovarian insufficiency as previous estimates have suggested, but they still represent a substantial cause of primary ovarian insufficiency and early menopause

Retrospective methods to estimate radiation dose at the site of breast cancer development after Hodgkin lymphoma radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: An increased risk of breast cancer following radiotherapy for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) has now been robustly established. In order to estimate the dose-response relationship more accurately, and to aid clinical decision making, a retrospective estimation of the radiation dose delivered to the site of the subsequent breast cancer is required. METHODS: For 174 Dutch and 170 UK female patients with breast cancer following HL treatment, the 3-dimensional position of the breast cancer in the affected breast was determined and transferred onto a CT-based anthropomorphic phantom. Using a radiotherapy treatment planning system the dose distribution on the CT-based phantom was calculated for the 46 different radiation treatment field set-ups used in the study population. The estimated dose at the centre of the breast cancer, and a margin to reflect dose uncertainty were determined on the basis of the location of the tumour and the isodose lines from the treatment planning. We assessed inter-observer variation and for 47 patients we compared the results with a previously applied dosimetry method. RESULTS: The estimated median point dose at the centre of the breast cancer location was 29.75 Gy (IQR 5.8-37.2), or about 75% of the prescribed radiotherapy dose. The median dose uncertainty range was 5.97 Gy. We observed an excellent inter-observer variation (ICC 0.89 (95% CI: 0.74-0.95)). The absolute agreement intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for inter-method variation was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.37-0.75), indicating (nearly) good agreement. There were no systematic differences in the dose estimates between observers or methods. CONCLUSION: Estimates of the dose at the point of a subsequent breast cancer show good correlation between methods, but the retrospective nature of the estimates means that there is always some uncertainty to be accounted for

BRCA2 polymorphic stop codon K3326X and the risk of breast, prostate, and ovarian cancers

Background: The K3326X variant in BRCA2 (BRCA2*c.9976A&gt;T; p.Lys3326*; rs11571833) has been found to be associated with small increased risks of breast cancer. However, it is not clear to what extent linkage disequilibrium with fully pathogenic mutations might account for this association. There is scant information about the effect of K3326X in other hormone-related cancers. Methods: Using weighted logistic regression, we analyzed data from the large iCOGS study including 76 637 cancer case patients and 83 796 control patients to estimate odds ratios (ORw) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for K3326X variant carriers in relation to breast, ovarian, and prostate cancer risks, with weights defined as probability of not having a pathogenic BRCA2 variant. Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, we also examined the associations of K3326X with breast and ovarian cancer risks among 7183 BRCA1 variant carriers. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The K3326X variant was associated with breast (ORw = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.40, P = 5.9x10- 6) and invasive ovarian cancer (ORw = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.43, P = 3.8x10-3). These associations were stronger for serous ovarian cancer and for estrogen receptor–negative breast cancer (ORw = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.70, P = 3.4x10-5 and ORw = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.28 to 1.76, P = 4.1x10-5, respectively). For BRCA1 mutation carriers, there was a statistically significant inverse association of the K3326X variant with risk of ovarian cancer (HR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.22 to 0.84, P = .013) but no association with breast cancer. No association with prostate cancer was observed. Conclusions: Our study provides evidence that the K3326X variant is associated with risk of developing breast and ovarian cancers independent of other pathogenic variants in BRCA2. Further studies are needed to determine the biological mechanism of action responsible for these associations

The Intracranial Distribution of Gliomas in Relation to Exposure From Mobile Phones: Analyses From the INTERPHONE Study

When investigating the association between brain tumors and use of mobile telephones, accurate data on tumor position are essential, due to the highly localized absorption of energy in the human brain from the radio-frequency fields emitted. We used a point process model to investigate this association using information that included tumor localization data from the INTERPHONE Study (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom). Our main analysis included 792 regular mobile phone users diagnosed with a glioma between 2000 and 2004. Similar to earlier results, we found a statistically significant association between the intracranial distribution of gliomas and the self reported location of the phone. When we accounted for the preferred side of the head not being exclusively used for all mobile phone calls, the results were similar. The association was independent of the cumulative call time and cumulative number of calls. However, our model used reported side of mobile phone use, which is potentially influenced by recall bias. The point process method provides an alternative to previously used epidemiologic research designs when one is including localization in the investigation of brain tumors and mobile phone use