A discrete event simulation model for unstructured supervisory control of unmanned vehicles

Thesis (S.B.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 2010.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 33).Most current Unmanned Vehicle (UV) systems consist of teams of operators controlling a single UV. Technological advances will likely lead to the inversion of this ratio, and automation of low level tasking. These advances will also lead to a growth in UV use in large-scale applications such as urban search and rescue, which will require the use of both teams of operators and teams of UVs. This growth will in turn require research and development in the area of team supervisory control of multiple UVs. Human-in-the- loop experimentation is often used during this research but can be time consuming and expensive. The time and cost of experimentation can often be drastically reduced by using predictive models. However there is a lack of such models in the area of multiple-operator supervisory control of multiple- UVs. This problem is addressed in this thesis through the following method: First, current predictive models of human supervisory control of UVs are analyzed, and attributes of systems related to this modeling space are identified. Second, a queuing-based multiple-operator multiple-vehicle discrete event simulation model (MO-MUVDES) is developed which captures these attributes, including the ability to predict performance in situations with low observable exogenous event arrivals. MO-MUVDES also incorporates traditional system variables such as level of vehicle autonomy, vehicle and operator team structure, and operator switching strategy. The accuracy and robustness of the MO-MUVDES model were measured by a two-stage validation process using data from a human-in-the-loop supervisory control experiment, and a Monte Carlo simulation. The first stage of the validation process used data from the experiment as input for the MOMUVDES model which was then used to generate predictions of operator performance. In the second stage of validation, a sensitivity analysis was performed on the MO-MUVDES model. This validation process achieved confidence in the model's ability to predict operator performance and a measurement of the robustness of the model under varying input conditions. Additionally, the process indicated that discrete event simulation is an effective technique for modeling team supervisory control of UVs in a situation where exogenous event arrivals are not clearly observable. As a result, the MO-MUVDES model could be used to reduce development time for systems within its modeled space.by Anthony D. McDonald.S.B

"The Economic Consequences of Weintraub's Consumption Coefficient"

In this paper we show that Weintraub:s consumption coefficient (the ratio of total consumption to wages) can elucidate trends in the sectoral and functional distributions of income We also show that, in a Kaleckian model, it simplifies and add precision to Kaleckian macroeconomics. Using a Kaleckian definition of profits, empirical estimates of the coefficient are presented for the UK 1972-1990. From a level of around 1.1 in the 1970’s, the coefficient rose to around 1.3 in the mid-1980s from which it has started to fall back to its 1970's levels. During the 1980s, the coefficient indicated a marked redistribution of income in favour of profits along with a rise in capitalists' propensity to consume. This confirms the evidence that the economic boom of the 1980s was driven principally by an expansion of demand for luxury goods rather than fixed capital investment. This will have been a factor in the slump after 1990.

Measuring belief in conspiracy theories: Validation of a French and English single-item scale

We designed, in French and in English, a single-item scale to measure people’s general tendency to believe in conspiracy theories. The validity and reliability of this scale was assessed in 3 studies (total N = 555). In Study 1 (N = 152), positive correlations between the single-item scale and 3 other conspiracy belief scales on a French student sample suggested good concurrent validity. In Study 2 (N = 292), we replicated these results on a larger and more heterogeneous Internet American sample. Moreover, the scale showed good predictive validity—responses predicted participants’ willingness to receive a bi-monthly newsletter about alleged conspiracy theories. Finally, in Study 3 (N = 111), we observed good test-retest reliability and demonstrated both convergent and discriminant validity of the single-item scale. Overall these results suggest that the single-item conspiracy belief scale has good validity and reliability and may be used to measure conspiracy belief in favor of lengthier existing scales. In addition, the validation of the single-item scale led us to develop and start validating French versions of the Generic Conspiracist Beliefs scale, the Conspiracy Mentality Questionnaire, and a 10-item version (instead of the 15-item original version) of the Belief in Conspiracy Theories Inventory

Acting in : The Effect of Performance on Relations between Christians and Hindus in Odisha, India

This paper examines ”acting in” as a tactic through which marginalized Christians from predominantly Hindu villages leverage an ideological and cultural space for practicing and sharing a Christian piety in modern Odisha, India – a region that has experienced significant anti-Christian violence in the past two decades. This research examines the cultural and political work accomplished through specific kinds of performances by the Christians of Marathana Ministries. The example of “acting in” presented here occurs in the openness of village streets and incorporates highly stylized narrative presentations of Christian scriptures realized through song, dance and drama. This ”acting in” performance draws on local conventions in order to affect a resonance between the audience’s experience with similar performances of Hindu epics and the ”acting in” performances of Christian narratives. This resonance, a domain of experience that Dwight Conquergood calls an “embodied epistemology,” enables the dramatized Christian stories – and even the Christians themselves – to be received by villagers as if emanating from a shared past. This phenomenological process also creates the conditions by which the beliefs of Maranatha Ministries Christians might conceivably emerge in subsequent village dialogue as local and undifferentiated from the local traditions of religious practice. The political notion of ”acting in” becomes evident as I demonstrate how the tactics of ”acting in” include a jettisoning of practices deemed foreign. This combination of carefully crafted performance and the absence of foreign cultural markers enables Maranatha Ministries Christians to become accepted in the village and also to become undifferentiated from their Hindu neighbors. This lack of differentiation produces a functional invisibility to the state and unofficial means of surveillance that might otherwise find it expedient to govern Christians as a distinct social entity. In this way ”acting in” enables peaceable relations between Maranatha Ministries Christians, their village neighbors, village elders and regional and state authorities. Ironically, invisibility to the state is achieved through performance of what state officials call “oral tradition” – a practice first employed by the state itself for tourist purposes. Contradictions abound in the precarity of Odisha’s modern political society, as Maranatha Ministries Christians navigate an unstable environment in which they declare that their enemy is not the state, not Hinduism and not Hindutva but rather, their enemy is offensive culture practices. “Acting in” is the performative expression of this stance that enables Christian piety and agency in the political uncertainties of modern Odisha

A study of the cultural, social, political and economic factors in the production of a global house-type

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.The research, undertaken within the context of recent studies on the mutual relation between society and its built environment, concerns a particular item in that environment - the specialised dwelling form of the bungalow - and the various historical forces which have produced it. It also explores the meaning of that form for, and its influences on, the society where it exists. The study has two dimensions: 'a cultural history of the bungalow' and a discussion of various themes which the investigation of that history suggests. The bungalow is probably the only house-type which, both in name (from 'bangla', meaning of, or belonging to Bengal) and form exists in almost every continent. In investigating its origins in India, and later development in Britain, North America, Australia, Africa and Europe, the study explores the historical forces which, in producing it, have also shaped the modern world: colonialism, industrialisation, urbanisation and suburbanisation, and the emergence of a global economy and culture. In different historical contexts, the bungalow has been variously peasant's hut, colonial dwelling, specialised vacation house, country retreat, tropical dwelling, and suburban home. In tracing these developments, the chapters discuss the economic. political, cultural, social and other influences on dwelling and urban form; the symbolic function of architecture and environments; the relationship between social form-and built form, ideology and environment, and dwelling type and property ownership. The role of economic and social power in shaping environments is discussed in relation to 'town and country planning' in Britain. Chapters on India and Africa explore, in the context of debates on 'Westernisation' the transfer of values and standards in housing and planning, as part of a larger transformation of material culture. In investigating the social production and meaning of the bungalow, the study attempts a comparative, inter-disciplinary approach to the-historical study of the built. environment, drawing on social and cultural explanations of built form, the political economy of urbanisation and studies of the world system

Builders\u27 Reactions to Changes in Demand : A Theory of Short Run Fluctuation in Residential Single Family Housing Starts

One factor which distinguishes the production of non-mobile housing from the production of other consumer goods is the relatively long duration of the production process. A recent study found the median construction period for single family units to be three months, the mean length being 4.3 months. The implication is that, for single family housing, the level of inventory under construction is approximately three to four times the level of monthly starts and completions. If the level of realized sales falls short of the level of sales expected by a builder, it will create undesired increases in the level of inventory, reducing profits and threatening the builder\u27s existence in the industry. In order to reduce inventory to desired levels, the builder must either change his marketing policies in an effort to sell more units or reduce his starts of new units, or both. In this paper the author is concerned only with fluctuations in starts of new single family housing units. The investor, rather than the builder, bears the risk of selling or renting the constructed units. In contrast, between 1963 and 1971, 79 percent of all single family housing units were started without any commitment from buyers. Until these units are sold, the costs and risks of carrying a large unsold inventory remain with the builder. The author of this study developed for statistical analysis three models in an effort to explain fluctuations in residential single unit housing starts: Specifically, the proposition embodied in these models states that residential builders vary their starts of new single family housing units for two reasons. First, builders\u27 expectations of future sales are constantly being revised according to their sales experience. Second, builders attempt to adjust their unsold inventory to desired levels, given their sales expectations. Data recording sales and unsold inventories of new single family housing units have been published monthly since 1963. The data analyzed cover the period from January 1965 to December 1971. The data represent permit and non-permit areas of all 50 states. Since changes in expectations and in desires are not directly observable, one must resort to models in which changes in expectations or desires are a function of observable phenomena. One class of models which performs this function is referred to as adaptive expectations models. The author proposes three alternative adaptive expectation models to explain how builders form sales expectations